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Defensive Props Odds and Predictions for 2024 Super Bowl

by Matt Zitt - 2/2/2024

defensive props odds and predictions for Super Bowl Chris Jones Kansas City Chiefs

With a little over a week until the big game, there are plenty of fun things to wager on such as the coin toss, halftime show, and the number of times the announcers talk about Taylor Swift. For now, we are going to key in on the defensive side of the football. It is often overshadowed by fun props and the offense, but we might be able to find some value with some of the selections. Consider betting on things such as sacks, interceptions, total tackles, and touchdowns. Both the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs have star-studded defenders. Doc’s Sports will break down some value bets below.

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Nick Bosa, 49ers, OVER 0.5 sacks (-130)

If the 49ers are going to disrupt Patrick Mahomes’ rhythm on offense, Bosa will most likely be the reason why. His two sacks of Jared Goff played a huge role in the comeback victory over the Lions in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco signed the defensive end to a $170-million contract for moments like this in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs offensive line is as solid as they come in pass protection, but that will not stop Bosa’s motor at Allegiant Stadium.

Javon Hargrave, 49ers, OVER .25 sacks (+170)

I see a ton of value with this selection. It is not easy to sack Mahomes, but it is certainly possible on Super Bowl Sunday. Mahomes has taken sacks at just a 4.0% clip in his career and took two last weekend against the Ravens. The Chiefs were without offensive lineman Joe Thuney in the AFC Championship Game, and he is a long shot to play in the Super Bowl. That bodes well for Hargrave and company. The 49ers defender had seven sacks in the regular season and had the fifth-highest pass rush grade among interior lineman this year. Getting a nice +170 on this wager, there is value in taking advantage of Thuney’s absence.

Chris Jones, Chiefs, OVER .25 sacks (+110)

George Karlaftis may have the hot hand, but Jones is still Kansas City’s most dangerous pass rusher. At plus money, this is a steal for a guy that recorded a team-high 10.5 sacks and 13 tackles for a loss in just 13 regular season games. Plus, keep in the back of your head that Karlaftis faces the tougher matchup off the edge against star left tackle Trent Williams. Look for Jones to exploit whoever the 49ers have lined up against him.

Chiefs D/ST: Anytime TD (+550)

If I had to choose one defense to make a game-changing play, I would take the Chiefs against Purdy than the 49ers against Mahomes. There has been a defensive or special teams touchdown in 26 of the 57 Super Bowls. Bettors cashed in last year when Nicholas Bolton scored on a 36-yard fumble return. The Chiefs defense has scored two defensive touchdowns this year, both fumble returns. The 49ers offense tallied 18 turnovers during the regular season. I am betting that Brock Purdy makes more mistakes in this one than his counterpart Mahomes.

L’Jarius Sneed, Chiefs, to record an interception (+600)

Sneed was the only Chief to have multiple interceptions in the regular season and is usually tasked to defend the opponent’s best receiver. Purdy has thrown one interception in two playoff games. However, if you have tuned in, you know it should be more. According to PFF, Purdy has been graded as the third-worst passer in the playoffs. You will want to take advantage of that in the Super Bowl. I will gladly take Sneed at +600, but note that Mike Edwards at +500 makes sense as well if you think Purdy will toss a turnover.

Charvarius Ward, 49ers, to record an interception (+1000)

There is a ton of value in this selection if you think Mahomes will throw a pick in the Super Bowl. Ward has the most passes defended (24) and most passes defended per game (1.26) compared to all defenders on the 49ers and Chiefs. Ward tallied five interceptions on the season and always found himself around the ball. When splitting the field into thirds (left, middle, right), 47.8% of Mahomes’ career interceptions have been on the right side of the field, and that is exactly where Ward lines up while playing almost 100% of the snaps. Ward’s odds should be much lower, and I will gladly take advantage of the oddsmakers' mistakes.

Fred Warner, 49ers, to have the most tackles (+310)

We are getting a nice number here at +310 on a three-time All-Pro that was 19th in the league in tackles this season. The Chiefs are more likely than not to have the offense on the field longer than the 49ers. That means more tackles for San Francisco. If you have been watching the playoffs, most of the Chiefs’ drives are long and methodical. Travis Kelce and Noah Gray are seeing 40% of the targets in the playoffs, and even Rashee Rice has seen an uptick in shallow targets. Add in more rushes from Isiah Pacheco, and that means there should be a ton of tackles for the taking for 49ers linebackers. Warner is a solid option to lead the Super Bowl in tackles. 

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