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2024-25 Dallas Stars Predictions and Odds to Win Stanley Cup Finals

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/24/2024

Dallas Stars predictions Jake Oettinger

Last year, the Dallas Stars proved just how strong they could be. They finished second in the league in points with 113 points, one behind the Rangers, who recorded 114. Their +64-goal differential was the best in the Western Conference and second in the NHL behind the Panthers +68 mark. They were one of the best teams on the road last season, finishing with a road record of 26-10-5. Despite their incredible regular season performance, they were given the toughest road to the cup. They took down Vegas in seven games, Colorado in six, before ultimately falling to Edmonton in six games.

Dallas had one of, if not the, deepest roster in the league. They ranked third in the NHL with 3.59 GF/G while ranking sixth in the NHL with a 24.2% PP% and eighth in PK% with a penalty kill mark of 82%. Over half the roster recorded 20 or more points last season for the Stars, with Jason Robertson leading the team with 80 points and 51 assists. Then the Stars had five players within the 60-point mark, as Joe Pavelski (67), Roope Hintz (65), Matt Duchene (65), Wyatt Johnston (65), and Jamie Benn (60) followed behind Robertson. If that wasn’t enough depth, Dallas had another three players finish in the 50-point mark, with Miro Heiskanen (54), Mason Marchment (53), and Tyler Seguin (52). Johnston led the team with 32 goals, while Hintz also reached the 30-goal mark. Robertson (29), Pavelski (27), Duchene (25), Tyler Seguin (25), Marchment (22), and Benn (21) all tallied more than 20 goals last season.

Dallas also ranked within the Top 10 in goalie play, as they finished eighth in the league with a 2.83 GA/G mark while ranking 14th with a .904 SV%. Jake Oettinger allowed 2.72 GA/G with a .905 SV% and a 35-14-4 record over his 54 appearances this past season, despite missing some time with an injury. Scott Wedgewood performed well as his backup allowing 2.85 GA/G on a .899 SV% and a 16-7-5 record over his 32 appearances.

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Seasons come and go, so now it’s time to take a look at what we can expect from the Dallas Stars in 2024-25:

Dallas Stars Key Additions/Losses

Fan favorite Joe Pavelski retired this offseason, while Jani Hakanpaa (12 points), Craig Smith (20 points), Scott Wedgewood, and Matt Murray all departed this offseason via free agency. The Stars also shipped the rights to deadline addition Chris Tanev to Toronto, while also trading Radek Faksa (19 points) to the Blues and Ty Dellandrea (nine points) to the Sharks. Dallas also let Ryan Suter go via buy out, and he ended up with the Blues as well.

Outside of Pavelski retiring, the Stars did a good job filling the holes of the departed talent. They boosted their depth at the blueline by adding Ilya Lyubushkin (nine points), Matt Dumba (12 points), Kyle Capobianco (54 points, AHL), and Brendan Smith (15 points). Additionally, the Stars replaced their goalie losses by adding Casey DeSmith (2.89 GA/G) and Magnus Hellberg. The Stars also added forward Colin Blackwell (12 points) while re-signing Matt Duchene, Nils Lundkvist, and Sam Steel.

Dallas Stars X-Factors

Depth- Once again, the Stars will rely on their tremendous depth to take them to the next level. They got stronger at the blueline by adding some heavy hitters and should see that boost them to their full potential. With Pavelski gone, the Stars will move Wyatt Johnston to the top line permanently with Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, while Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene will be joined by Logan Stankoven, and youngster Mavrik Bourque could be a key depth piece for Dallas as he joins Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin on the third line. Dallas will need consistent production from all their guys. And if Bourque and Stankoven can produce over the course of a long season, Dallas might be better than they were last season.

Dallas Stars Goalie Outlook

With the departure of Scott Wedgewood and Matt Murray, Jake Oettinger will have two new backups behind him, both of whom are veteran netminders and can help the young goalie develop further. DeSmith had a solid year as Vancouver’s backup, as he finished with 12-9-6 record in 29 appearances while allowing 2.89 GA/G on a .896 SV% (career low). However, he has a career SV% of .909, so hopefully he is able to improve on that mark this season. Magnus Hellberg appeared in just three games and allowed 2.50 GA/G last season for Pittsburgh. Oettinger missed extended time due to injury. However, if he can stay healthy, he should be able to record 55-60 starts this season, which is good news for him as his career best year was in 2022-23, where he recorded a career high 61 starts and finished with a career best .919 SV%. All in all, Dallas looks good in the crease.

Grade: B+

Dallas Stars Key Schedule Stretch

January 7th-January 18th: Dallas was the best road team in the NHL last season and will need that success to carry over into the ensuing campaign. This stretch in January includes seven games, with six of them being away from home ice. The stretch starts with a five-game road stretch against New York (Rangers), Philadelphia, Montreal, Ottawa, and Toronto. After that road trip, they will return for one home game against Montreal before heading to Colorado for another road game. The opposition isn’t the toughest. However, it will be crucial for the Stars to take care of business on the road against the teams they are supposed to beat.

Dallas Stars Notable Odds

Stanley Cup Champions: +1100

Conference Winner: +550

Division Winner: +230

Vezina Trophy- Jake Oettinger: +1500

Hart Trophy- Jason Robertson: +4000

Norris Trophy- Miro Heiskanen: +1300

Dallas Stars Predictions

Dallas should give Colorado a run for their money for the top spot in the Central Division. After finishing with 113 points last season, there is little reason to believe they can’t reach the 104 points mark this season and hit the over on the Team Total. Look for Dallas to once again be one of the best and deepest teams in the NHL. If healthy, Jake Oettinger provides nice value at +1500 for you to take a flier on the 25-year-old goalie to win the Vezina Trophy. And Miro Heiskanen has consistently been one of the best defensemen in the NHL, so he is worth a look as well for the Norris Trophy. The Stars should find themselves right back on the road to a deep playoff run and maybe even win the cup.

Over 103.5 Team Total Points

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