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2024-25 Dallas Mavericks Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 9/27/2024

Dallas Mavericks predictions Luka Doncic

The Dallas Mavericks bounced back from not making the playoffs in 2022-23 to a Finals appearance last season. Anything short of a second consecutive NBA Finals appearance will be seen as a failure in Dallas. Can the Mavericks build on their success last season, or will they get crowded out of a competitive Western Conference?

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Dallas Mavericks Offseason Recap

It is common to see the teams that make a deep playoff run follow it up with a quiet offseason. That was not the case for the Mavericks, as they looked to bolster their lineup over the summer. The biggest acquisition for the Mavericks was longtime Golden State Warriors legend Klay Thompson. Thompson is in the twilight of his career after spending the last 13 years in sunny California. Thompson won four NBA championships during his time with the Warriors, and the Mavericks will be hoping he is the missing piece to get them over the line this season. At 34 years old, Thompson isn’t getting any younger, but he can still knock down three-point shots like few others in the league. With Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic hogging the basketball, Thompson is the perfect third star for Dallas. He will happily post up in the corner and wait to knock down a triple. 

Thompson wasn’t the only addition for the Mavericks, as they also brought in Spencer Dinwiddie from the Lakers. Dinwiddie spent half a season with Los Angeles after spending most of his career with the Brooklyn Nets. He was ineffective with the Lakers but will be a valuable asset off the bench for Dallas. Dinwiddie has shot 34% or better from three-point land in each of the last three seasons, giving the Mavericks another deep threat option. Fresh arrivals Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall will also play meaningful minutes off the bench, giving the Mavericks the depth they have been craving during the Luka Doncic era. 

The summer also featured a few key departures for the Mavericks. Defensive masterminds Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green both left for new horizons, and it remains to be seen how that will affect the Mavericks defense. Dallas has been one of the best defensive teams in the league, but losing two key assets will hurt. Their signings make it clear the Mavericks will be prioritizing offense over defense this season. 

Dallas Mavericks Season Expectations

It would be unfair to say the Mavericks made a shock run to the NBA Finals, but it was certainly unexpected after they missed the playoffs the year prior. However, as long as Luka Doncic is on the roster, a championship in Dallas will be the expectation every season. Doncic’s 33.9 PPG led the league last year, as he just keeps getting more efficient with his scoring. He also tacked on 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game, both of which were team highs. Doncic has proven he can do it himself, but the additional depth for the Mavericks certainly doesn’t hurt. Kyrie Irving has finally found a home in Dallas and looks to be ready for his first NBA championship since his rookie season. Irving’s 41.1% clip from deep was the third highest mark of his 13-year career. The additional benefit of having Irving and Thompson waiting in the wings is that it will space the floor for the rest of the Mavericks. Surrounding Doncic with shooters prevents teams from sending the double team in his direction, as it will result in an open look for his teammate. Dallas is truly poised for another deep playoff run this season. 

Dallas Mavericks Schedule Breakdown

Dallas starts the year with 7 of their first 9 games at home, including their season opener against the San Antonio Spurs. The highlight of the Mavericks schedule is on Christmas Day, when they host the Boston Celtics at 5:30 PM EST. Their longest road trip is five games in late January spanning until early February when they head to the East Coast. 

Dallas Mavericks Odds

The Mavericks have the 6th shortest NBA title odds at +1000. It would not be surprising to see the Mavericks make another run to the NBA Finals, and they have +450 odds to win the Western Conference. One surprising set of odds to see is the Mavericks playoff line. They are -500 to make the playoffs, which is a thick line to swallow but still offers value considering the star-studded roster in Dallas. Dallas has a season win total of 49.5 wins but will only need to go .500 to reach the play-in tournament. 

In the NBA Cup, the Mavericks find themselves in a very difficult group. Joining the Mavericks in Group C in the Western Conference are the Nuggets, Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Warriors. The +260 price tag for the Mavericks to finish on top or the +2000 odds to win the NBA Cup don’t offer enough upside. It’s a wide-open group, with only one, or possibly two, teams advancing. 

2024-25 Dallas Mavericks Season Predictions and Best Bets

The Dallas Mavericks are a tough team to get a read on. They certainly have the talent to finish near the top of the Western Conference but sometimes lack the motivation to win during the regular season. Klay Thompson and Kyrie Irving only have a couple years left in the tank, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them sit out back-to-back contests and only play 50-60 games each. A 49.5 win total requires constant focus on a nightly basis, especially considering the extremely competitive Western Conference Dallas is in. Dallas will finish right in the 45-37 range, falling just short of their total while qualifying for the postseason. We will be avoiding the NBA Cup, but there is certainly value on the Mavericks in the traditional postseason. I like the Mavericks at +1000 odds to win the championship, and this line is unlikely to inflate over the season. As long as the Mavericks make the playoffs, they won’t be any shorter than +1000 over the lengthy regular season. 

Top Pick: Dallas Mavericks Under 49.5 Wins

Pick: Dallas Mavericks to Win the Championship +1000

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