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2024 Conference USA Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/11/2024

Conference USA Tournament predictions KyKy Tandy Jacksonville State

Conference-USA is another weak basketball conference that gets their one shot at the tournament through their conference champion. The conference went a combined 0-16 against Quad1 opposition this season and 5-19 against Quad2 opponents. Louisiana Tech is the highest ranked C-USA team in the NET rankings at 92, and they didn’t even claim the regular season title. Sam Houston won the regular season title, going 13-3 in the conference and 20-11 overall.

Western Kentucky went 8-8 in the conference, and the remaining six teams all finished with a losing record, with Florida International in the basement with a 5-11 conference record and 10-21 overall. The Hilltoppers led the way in offense, averaging 80.2 PPG, while Louisiana Tech’s defense allowed the least amount of PPG at 64.4.

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The Top Four:

#1 Sam Houston Bearkats 20-11 (13-3), +500 to win

The Bearkats had a memorable season and will look to add to it as they try and secure the conference title and a trip to March Madness. Sam Houston dominated at home this season, going 12-2, but they were just 7-9 on the road. They ended the season on a seven-game win streak, with their average margin of victory at 13.6 points. Despite going 13-3 in the conference, they averaged less than 73 PPG, which ranked sixth in the conference while ranking just 5th in defense. They take care of business at the charity stripe and can get hot from beyond the arc. However, the big concern with Sam Houston will be their depth. Lamar Wilkerson and Davon Barnes are the only two Bearkats who averaged more than 9 PPG this season. It is worth noting they went 2-2 this season with a +4-point differential against their potential second-round matchup in either Jacksonville State or Florida International.

#2 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 22-9 (12-4), +115 to win

Louisiana Tech finished with the best overall record in the conference at 22-9 and was the only team in the conference to post a winning record on the road. They have a solid win on their resume over McNeese State but came up short against the likes of New Mexico, Colorado State, Grand Canyon, and two losses to Sam Houston. They have lost only four times since the beginning of the calendar year largely thanks to their suffocating defense that has limited opponents to less than 40% shooting on the year. The Bulldogs limited their opponents to just 64.4 PPG, while the offense has averaged 75 PPG and ranks second in the conference with a 36.2% 3P%. Size is something to keep an eye on throughout this tournament, and worth remembering if they end up in March Madness. Daniel Batcho has nearly averaged a double-double this season 14.9/9.8. However, if he gets into foul trouble, then the Bulldogs will be in trouble.

#3 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 19-11 (8-8), +475 to win

The Hilltoppers season has been a rollercoaster. They had both a five-game winning streak and a four-game losing streak during conference play this season and even entered conference play having won seven in a row. Western Kentucky has no big wins on their resume and are 1-3 in their regular season matchups against Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech. The frustrations are fresh as they head into the postseason, as their current four-game skid had come with an average margin of defeat of just over three points a game. Despite the skid, the Hilltoppers led the conference, averaging over 80 PPG, and their +5.1% FG% differential ranks second in the conference. Their defense has allowed over 80 points over their last three games, so they must step up in the tournament if they want to win the championship.

#4 Liberty Flames 18-13 (7-9), +450 to win

Liberty rounds out the top four seeds in the C-USA Tournament. They were awful on the road this season, going 2-8 in conference play and 3-9 overall. The Flames fizzled out against their only ranked opponent this season as they lost to Florida Atlantic by 25 back in November. Liberty leads the conference with a 36.6% 3P% and 15.8 APG as a team. However, they are one of the worst offensive-rebounding teams in the country and shoot just 66.7% as a team from the line. The defensive play does bail out the offense out at times. Opponents shoot just 31.7% from beyond the arc and just 43.7% from the floor. Their +8.8-point differential is second-best in the conference. If the Flames can get going from deep throughout the tournament, they have as good a shot as any to claim the C-USA automatic qualifier.

Dark Horse: #5 UTEP Miners 16-15 (7-9), +1200 to win

Picking a dark horse candidate in this conference is hard as it is one of the weakest groups in the nation. However, UTEP is technically a five-seed and could therefore put teams on upset alert. They finished the season on a three-game winning streak after riding a four-game losing streak prior to February 29. One of their wins to end the season was against their first-round matchup in the Liberty Flames, taking them down at Liberty 67-51. The Miners rank in the middle of the conference in nearly every offensive category but are one of the worst rebounding teams in C-USA. They do create fastbreaks often with a +4.1 SPG differential and will need to do so in order to offset their poor rebounding. If their defense can dominate like it did down the stretch, the Miners could win this tournament.

Chaos Contender: #8 Jacksonville State 14-17 (6-10), +2500 to win

The Gamecocks can create chaos through their stingy defensive play and their star KyKy Tandy. Tandy leads the way with 18.3 PPG and shoots nearly 40% from deep. The offense could use a boost from the supporting cast, but it starts with the defense if Jacksonville State wants to pull off a miracle.

Prediction

The C-USA winner will be Louisiana Tech. They have an easier first round matchup to set the tone and get their momentum flowing. The Bulldogs are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the conference, and their ability to create second chance opportunities will be huge. They are the most complete team on paper in this conference and should breeze through the tournament.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +115

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