2007 Conference USA Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/24/2007
Conference USA is entering the third season since it was ripped apart by the series of conference shuffles that was started by the move of Miami and Virginia Tech to the ACC. Before those changes this was a pretty decent conference, with teams like Louisville and TCU providing some reasonable excitement. Both of those top teams moved to greener pastures, and we are left with a rivalry between Houston and Southern Miss for conference supremacy. It's not a wonder no one pays any attention to C-USA.
Houston, led by a surprising Philadelphia second round draft pick, quarterback Kevin Kolb, was the winner of the conference in 2006. The team was 10-4, and a respectable 8-5 ATS. During the last two weeks of September they truly asserted themselves by beating Oklahoma State by 11, and then just barely losing to Miami by an extra point. Their bowl performance was disappointing given that early promise. They lost by eight to Steve Spurrier and South Carolina in the Liberty Bowl and failed to cover.
Teams on the Rise:
East Carolina just keeps improving. They were a pitiful 2-9 when Skip Holltz took them over two years ago, but they improved to 7-6 last year, including a win over Virginia. On paper at least, they should be better than that this year.
Central Florida was 4-8 last year. But this year they will be moving into a fancy new 45,000 seat stadium right on their Orlando campus. The boost of the new confines should help them win more than two games at home this year. Unfortunately, they open the new Stadium by hosting Texas, so that means at least one loss. On the other hand, a non-conference home game against Louisiana-Lafayette is very winnable. The Knights also have an easier conference schedule this year because they duck Houston.
Team on the Decline:
Tulane. Former UCLA coach Bob Toledo takes over the program, but he has a major task ahead of him in returning this team to respectability. The problems with the program are due as much to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina as anything, which makes it a bit sad that the team has little chance of coming anywhere close to last year's 4-8 mark.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
Tulsa was on the fast track thanks to coach Steve Kragthorpe, but his departure for Louisville to replace Bobby Petrino may slow the momentum a bit. Todd Graham from Rice is the new head coach, and he knows the Tulsa system well since he was a Kragthorpe assistant before heading to Rice. It won't take long for Graham to get comfortable, but it will probably cause the team to end up with a record similar to their 8-5 mark last year.
Money Player (player to bet on):
Anthony Alridge, RB, Houston. He averaged a freakish 10.1 yards per carry in the unique Houston spread offense last year, and he will be given more opportunities to shine with inexperienced quarterbacks stepping in for Kolb.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid):
Paul Smith, QB, Tulsa. The senior has to not only adjust to a new coach, but also a new scheme. Gus Malzahn brings in his hurry up, no huddle offense that didn't work very well in Arkansas last year. He's a decent passer, but the adjustments will cause Smith to disappoint in his final year.
Important Betting Trends:
Rice (nine times in 11 games) and Marshall (11 times in 13 games) were virtual locks to go over the total last season. Bettors underestimated East Carolina last year. Despite being 7-6, they were 10-3 ATS.
Potential Conference Champions:
Houston. Even without Kolb this team is the class of the conference. They may struggle offensively early, but they have the depth to find their way quickly, and they have an incredibly easy schedule.
Key Games:
Southern Miss at East Carolina, Sept. 15. The season starts with a bang with the two best teams in the East meeting, and Southern Miss looking to avenge their upset loss in the game last year as 5.5-point favorites.
Houston at Tulsa, Nov. 10. This should be a showdown for the win in the West Division. Houston won by 17 last year despite being two point underdogs.
Predicted Order of Finish:
East - Southern Miss, East Carolina, Central Florida, Marshall, Memphis, UAB.
West - Houston, Tulsa, SMU, Rice, UTEP, Tulane.