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Concert Tour Odds to Win the 2021 Preakness Stakes with Picks and Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 5/10/2021

Derby Horse Orb

As we approach the running of the 2021 Preakness Stakes, the storylines continue to write themselves. From Medina Spirit’s possible disqualification and forfeiting of the Kentucky Derby win, to Bob Baffert’s suspension at Churchill Downs, to the fact that this Preakness Stakes lacks any sort of buzz surrounding it. I could pick and write a thousand words on each of those topics, but I choose to help you, the reader, make some money on Saturday when the race gets underway. And there is no better way to do that than by breaking down the likely post-time favorite, Concert Tour.

Odds: If we take into consideration the possibility of Medina Spirit not running in the Preakness, Concert Tour would likely go off as the favorite in this race at post time. Currently, books are offering future odds on Concert Tour at +125 – without Medina Spirit – meaning that regardless of if Medina Spirit runs or not, Concert Tour is the betting favorite to finish first or second. 

Breeding: In order to understand the breeding and pedigree of Concert Tour, we must first look at the family tree (if you will). Concert Tree is a Dark Bay/Brown colt bred in Kentucky by way of Street Sense and Purse Strings. Street Sense was one hell of a horse. He notched six wins in 14 starts, including wins in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the Tampa Bay Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Jim Dandy Stakes, and the Travers Stakes. Street Sense also added four second-place finishes (one in the Preakness) and three third-place finishes. He was an exceptional horse. And if Concert Tour can tap into that potential, he’ll be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. His mom, Purse Strings, had the unfortunate distinction of being a bridesmaid more often than a bride as she won just once compared to six second-place finishes. 

Trainer: Concert Tour is owned by Gary and Mary West and is trained by none other than Bob Baffert. Unfortunately for Baffert, he finds himself in hot water once again in his career, and it’s unsure how he will recover from this. What’s crazy is that if Medina Spirit does get to run this race, Baffert will have the morning line favorite as well as the second choice running for him in hopes of breaking the tie with R. Wyndham Walden for most Preakness wins by a trainer. Currently, both are tied with seven, with Baffert’s last win coming in 2018, while Walden last won this race in 1888, (yes, the 18 hundreds).

Jockey: Joel Rosario has been aboard Concert Tour for much of his career and will be in the saddle here once again for Baffert. Rosario is having a solid year, posting a win percentage of 25 percent (73 wins in 291 starts). He’s won 19 stakes races this year alone, including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup. He has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes but is missing a Preakness win to complete his own personal triple crown.

Last race: Concert Tour last ran in the Arkansas Derby on April 10, 2021. He left the gate as a hot 1/5 favorite and had every chance of getting the win as he stalked the leader and then actually led for nearly half of the home stretch before fading and allowing Super Stock to drive past him and win by nearly three lengths. Not only was the result not what Baffert was looking for, but the way Concert Tour hung in the stretch led Baffert to pull the plug on the Derby and have him freshen up for the Preakness.

Prior experience: Concert Tour made his debut as a three-year-old on January 15 at Santa Anita in a Maiden Special Weight. He went on to win that race. And then from there he entered the San Vincente Stakes in February where he won easily as a 2/5 favorite. From there, Concert Tour’s next show was in the Rebel Stakes in March, where he also won with ease as an 8/5 favorite. The Arkansas Derby was next up, and he did not only lose his unbeaten record of three wins from three starts, but he cost himself a shot at running in the Kentucky Derby.

Can Concert Tour Win the 2021 Preakness Stakes? The obvious answer is yes. Concert Tour is the most talented horse in this field with the pedigree needed to win races at extended distances. The only question I have is how much of a distraction the Baffert story will be not to the horse, but to the connections and to the sport of horse racing itself. Baffert is among the most winningest trainers in history, but I do believe moving forward there is going to be an even bigger cloud of speculation surrounding any success that comes his way.  

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