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College Football Playoff Prop Bet Predictions for First Round

by Mike Allen - 12/17/2024

College Football Playoff prop bet predictions Ashton Jeanty Boise State Broncos

How many decades have you waited for this? Finally, we have a playoff in college football. No, the four-team system doesn't count. We still have a long way to go before we reach 64, but 12 is a massive step in the right direction.

Do I think the committee "got it right" with their selections? Yes. If Alabama won in the final week of the season, I would put them over SMU. They got smoked, though, and here we are.

The seeding, however, is all jacked up. The Penn State Nittany Lions lost to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite vs SMU in the 1st Round. The spread is projected even wider vs Boise State if they make the 2nd.

I want to share some prop bets with you, particularly for the First Round of the CFB playoff, and a bonus bet at the end, in case you want to break the postseason down to just two "teams."

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

CFP Highest Scoring Game in the First Round

Penn State vs SMU: +175

The over/under for the noon game on Saturday is set at 54. Immediately, I lean toward the under for this one. The temperature for kickoff is forecasted to be a titillating 23 degrees with a 30% chance of light now. Winds will be moderate, considering, at around 12 MPH.

Now, guess the average temperature of an SMU game this season? If you said a sunny 75, come on down.

On top of the elements, these are two Top 10 defenses in opponents' yards/play. In fact, the top five teams in the nation in that stat, Texas, Ohio State, Indiana, Tennessee, and Notre Dame, should sound familiar, because they're all first round playoff teams. Seven of these eight teams are Top 10 in the telling statistic. This will be good to remember for our bonus bet.

Texas vs Clemson: +220

The Texas defense, in particular, ranks first in the nation in both yards/pass allowed and yards/play allowed. Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik is limited in his style. Expect the Longhorns to lock him down.

Notre Dame vs Indiana: +260

It's supposed to snow all week in South Bend, but nothing too heavy. We're looking at about the same temps in Indiana on Friday night as we'll see in State College, PA, on Saturday.

Ohio State vs Tennessee: +400

This game has the lowest total of the First Round by a few points at just 47. Expect a cold night in Columbus but with clear and calm conditions. Tennessee has been slowed nearly to a standstill at times this year, and the Ohio State defense is elite. However, the Vols are explosive and will probably air it out, playing from behind in the second half.

Pick: Ohio State vs Tennessee (+400)

CFB Lowest Scoring Game in the 1st Round

Ohio State vs Tennessee: +175

Notre Dame vs Indiana: +240

Texas vs Clemson: +240

Penn State vs SMU: +400

SMU has a killer pass rush that could shake things up for Penn State. However, I love the Longhorns game to be the lowest scoring of the First Round. They have the #1 defense going up against a team that, while well-coached, shouldn't even be there.

Clemson's strength is their defense, and Texas hasn't been putting up a lot of points. On top of that, they're starting the less capable quarterback Quinn Ewers.

Not picking a snow game for the lowest scoring seems weird, but a slippery surface can affect the defense more than the player, causing the reaction.

Pick: Texas vs Clemson (+240)

CFB Highest Scoring Team in the 1st Round

Texas: +300

Penn State: +320

Notre Dame: +370

Ohio State: +500

SMU: +1000

Indiana: +1000

Tennessee: +1200

Clemson: +1200

It's difficult not to pick one of the four overwhelming betting favorites here. We can't say the books aren't giving us a reason to take a team like Tennessee or Indiana, though, with the 10-1 or better odds.

Notre Dame runs the ball as efficiently as any team in the country. However, they rank down at 72nd in the nation in red zone scoring. Their opponent, conversely, ranks first in that category.

I’ll take Penn State here. The ACC Championship was a shootout at 34-31. It’ll be hard to slow the Nittany Lions if they get rolling at home.

Pick: Penn State (+320)

CFB Lowest Scoring Team in the 1st Round

Tennessee: +300

Clemson: +325

Indiana: +370

SMU: +500

Ohio State: +900

Notre Dame: +1000

Texas: +1200

Penn State: +1200

I didn’t even have to think about this one. I did, thorough, and I still like Clemson to get shut down on Saturday. The Longhorns are not happy after yet another loss to the Georgia Bulldogs.

Even after putting up 34 points in their last game, the Clemson Tigers rank outside of the top 100 in yards/play over the previous three games.

They made this the middle game on Saturday for a reason. I project it to be the widest margin of victory.

Pick: Clemson (+325)

Bonus Bet

Championship Winning Team

At Large Teams: -155

Conference Champions: +125

Are we holding out for Georgia and Oregon? No one seriously thinks Arizona State or Boise can take it all the way. The Ducks have a heck of a path ahead of them. They have been the best team in the country this year, though.

What about Georgia? They're down to their second-string quarterback. That said, I was never a believer in Carson Beck. I'm projecting draft bust right now.

As for this bonus bet, take the plus money. Yes, Oregon may fall on their side of the bracket. However, the path for the Bulldogs is wide open until Penn State. With his "cooler than you" shaded aviator sunglasses, Nittany Lion head coach James Franklin is just 1-13 against Top 5 teams in his career.

I love Georgia to beat Penn State and make the finals. From there, if the Ducks keep quacking, you don't need to bet on the National Championship because you already won.

Still make a bet, though. It's exciting, and you won't have the same opportunity for another year.

Pick: Conference Champions (+125)

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