Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

College Bowl Game Free Picks for Games from Dec. 19-Dec 26

by Joey House - 12/18/2023

College bowl game free picks Byrum Brown South Florida Bulls

Welcome to the Doc's Sports Bowl Game Best Bets for the week of December 19 to December 26. We've analyzed all the games for the first whole week of the "Bowl Season" and identified the best side bets that should help you earn back some of the money you've spent on the holidays.

In my past articles, I've discussed the difficulty that opt-outs and coaching changes add to handicapping bowl games. There is another difficulty that college handicappers deal with primarily at the beginning of the season: differences in the level of competition. A savvy handicapper knows that not all 6-6 records are alike and that deeper analysis is required to evaluate talent properly. Thoroughbred handicappers experience similar difficulties when a horse moves up or down in class.

The opening weekend of the bowl season gave us an example of better class with a slightly worse record. Fresno State, playing in a more competitive Mountain West Conference, entered the New Mexico Bowl with a record of 8-4 as a 3.5-point dog against a New Mexico State squad sitting at 10-4 from CUSA. The game's location (less than 2 hours from New Mexico State's campus) and the Aggies' current form (8-1 SU in their last nine games) led oddsmakers to install the Bulldogs as a 3.5-point dog. But Fresno State, who played (and beat) two Power Five schools out of conference, proved they were clearly the better team with a dominating 37-10 victory.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl- December 21st, 8:00 pm ESPN

(6-6) South Florida vs. (6-6) Syracuse (-3/61.5)

South Florida comes into this game the more stable of the two programs, only losing three non-starters to the transfer portal. Syracuse, however, lost edge rusher Leon Lower (46 tackles/7.5 TFL/3.5 Sacks), CB Jeremiah Wilson (1 INT), and a few other defensive players. The Orangemen also fired 8-year head coach Dino Babers on November 20th and will be led by interim head coach Nunzo Campanile.

When these two schools were Big East rivals, South Florida owned Syracuse, going 6-2 SU and ATS over eight seasons. Nothing changed after the Big East dissolved, as the Bulls have won the last two out-of-conference matchups. The Orangemen already have stability issues from the portal and coaching change. They now may also lose the services of starting QB Garrett Shrader, who is officially listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.

With this game practically being a home game for South Florida, and Syracuse's woes over the season (2-6 ATS in their last eight games), South Florida is a live dog. PICK: South Florida +3

Birmingham Bowl- December 23rd, Noon ABC

(11-2) Troy vs. (7-5) Duke (+7.5/44.5)

Player stability is the highlight of this bowl game, as Troy doesn't have any opt-outs to deal with. They will, however, have to replace head coach Jon Sumrall as he departs for the head position at Tulane. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato was named the interim head coach for the bowl game. The same cannot be said of Duke, whose head coach, Mike Elko, left for the Texas A&M job and experienced significant losses on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

Troy's defense, which is 10th in the country in points allowed per game (17.2 ppg), is legit, having held the offensive powerhouse James Madison to their lowest-scoring output of the season. The Trojans' defensive task became easier when the Duke's leading rusher, Jordan Waters, entered the portal. Over the last six games, Duke's defense has been quite porous, surrendering 29.7 ppg.

This IS a home game for Troy, as it's being played in their home stadium. Duke has struggled as of late, going 2-4 ATS in their last six games, not to mention going 1-4 SU in their last five contests as an underdog. This game represents a chance for a Group of Five school to make a statement, and that's precisely what I expect the favored Troy Trojans to do. PICK: Troy -7.5

Camellia Bowl- December 23rd, Noon ABC

(6-6) Arkansas State vs. (6-6) Northern Illinois (+1.5/53.5)

Arkansas State is the second SunBelt school with no opt-outs or coaching changes. Northern Illinois loses their leading wide receiver, Trayvon Rudolph (46/499/2 TDs), and a starting safety.

The differences in the defenses will be the ball game here. Arkansas State is giving up 31.2 points and allowing 445.5 yards per game. Northern Illinois's stop unit gives up a full 10 points a contest less and just 316.9 yards per game. The Huskies went on the road and won at Boston College and lost to Nebraska by 24 points. The Red Wolves only challenging non-SunBelt game was a 73-0 drubbing at the hands of Oklahoma. Arkansas State is averaging 27.8 ppg, including scoring 77 against Texas State and 52 against UMass. When they encounter a stout defense, they struggle to muster points, having scored 3 TDs or less in half of their 12 games. Anytime you can get the better team AND points, grab them. PICK: Northern Illinois +1.5

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl- December 23rd, 3:30 pm ABC

(6-6) Georgia State vs. (6-6) Utah State (-1.5/46.5)

This is a game that highlights the negative aspects of the transfer portal. Utah State only has a starting safety, Devin Dye (37 tackles, 1.5 TFL, 2 INTs), not playing in the game. Whereas Georgia State is being absolutely gutted: Starting RB Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 TDs, 8th in the nation in rushing) and #1 WR Robert Lewis (70 receptions, 877 yards, 7 TDs).

Georgia State's story has been "A Tale of Two Seasons." The Panthers were an impressive 6-1 through the first seven games. Since October 26, they haven't won a game, dropping five straight, with the average score being 41.8 to 18.6. The Aggies won a wild 44-41 game at New Mexico as 4.5-point road dogs on Black Friday to become bowl-eligible.

These two teams have a common foe in No. 24 James Madison. Utah State lost in a shootout against the Dukes, 45-38, while the Panthers simply got mauled by JMU to the tune of 42-14.

This would have been a difficult matchup at full strength for Georgia State. They're traveling a long distance, playing at an altitude they're not accustomed to. Take away their top two playmakers, and this becomes one of the more lopsided games of the bowl season. We saved the best bet for last. PICK: Utah State -1.5

Get college football picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent College Football Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers