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2025 College Basketball National Championship Odds and Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 3/19/2025

College basketball National Championship odds Kon Knueppel Duke Blue Devils

March Madness is here, bringing the exhilarating anticipation of college basketball's biggest showdown. With 68 teams competing for the NCAA Tournament championship, the chances of creating a perfect bracket are astronomically low—about 1 in 9.2 quintillion if you're making random picks. Even the most knowledgeable fans, equipped with statistics and intuition, will find the path to the Final Four filled with upsets, buzzer-beaters, and Cinderella stories. From the two play-in games to the performance of "One Shining Moment" after the champion is crowned, the NCAA Tournament reminds us that in March, anything can happen.

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1-seed Duke Blue Devils (East) +320

Duke rolls into the NCAA Tournament as the sport's most gifted squad, topping most advanced metrics and standing alone in the bracket with 31 victories. They're the obvious choice for the best team, as they were the first team in ACC history to lead the conference in offensive scoring (84.4 ppg) and defensive scoring (62.7). The Blue Devils are led by their latest freshman phenom, Cooper Flagg, who's expected to power through an ankle tweak from the ACC quarterfinals. Flagg (18.9 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) is a National Player of the Year frontrunner, surrounded by a roster dripping with upside. Kon Knueppel (14.4 ppg) shines as his trusty sidekick, while junior guard Tyrese Proctor has been a rock-solid constant all year. Duke is the only team to pull off that feat in the top five in KenPom's adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.

1-seed Florida Gators (West) +380

Looking at the past five weeks, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team hotter than Florida. Todd Golden's Gators are a juggernaut, driven by a backcourt trio—Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard—that might be the nation's finest. But their real strength lies elsewhere: Florida's ability to stretch the floor, switch seamlessly, and counter any opponent's game plan, no matter the pace or style. Sophomore Thomas Haugh, a 6-9 spark plug with a 132.9 offensive rating, could claim the title of top sixth man. Plus, the Gators regained 7-1 Micah Handlogten a few weeks ago after he missed last year's tourney with a broken leg. This is Florida's strongest squad in over a decade and is a legit contender for the crown. However, it does have a potential matchup against two-time defending champion Connecticut in the second round.

1-seed Auburn Tigers (South) +400

With a 28-5 record, Auburn boasts one of college basketball's premier talents in Johni Broome. Still, the lockdown defense from guard Denver Jones and center Dylan Cardwell elevates this team's potential to championship heights. Bruce Pearl has built a squad that's long, fast, versatile, and likely steaming after a late-season stumble—ready to storm into the tournament with a chip on their shoulder. Adding to the firepower, Auburn tops KenPom's offensive rankings.

1-seed Houston Cougars (Midwest) +600

Houston's consistency is a rare constant in college basketball's chaos. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars clamped down on opponents, holding them to 50 points or fewer, a nation-leading nine times this season. This squad also boasts the most lethal 3-point attack of any Sampson team yet, with guards LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp all eclipsing 40% from deep. The Cougars sit fourth nationally at 39.8% from beyond the arc. Pair that with their suffocating defense—ranked No. 2 on KenPom and anchored by standout stopper Joseph Tugler—and you've got a powerhouse. Center J'Wan Roberts' ankle injury is a question mark, but Houston's depth and grit keep them in the top-five conversation regardless.

2-seed Alabama Crimson Tide (East) +2200

Houston's consistency is a rare constant in college basketball's chaos. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars clamped down on opponents, holding them to 50 points or fewer, a nation-leading nine times this season. This squad also boasts the most lethal 3-point attack of any Sampson team yet, with guards LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan, and Emanuel Sharp all eclipsing 40% from deep. The Cougars sit fourth nationally at 39.8% from beyond the arc. Pair that with their suffocating defense—ranked No. 2 on KenPom and anchored by standout stopper Joseph Tugler—and you've got a powerhouse. Center J'Wan Roberts' ankle injury is a question mark, but Houston's depth and grit keep them in the top-five conversation regardless.

2-seed Tennessee Volunteers (Midwest) +2200

The SEC is a juggernaut this year, claiming four of the top six spots in the NCAA tournament odds, and Rick Barnes' Tennessee squad is right in the thick of it, nabbing a high-end seed for the fifth straight March Madness run. The Vols bring a defense as tough and unyielding as any in the game—and that's saying something given the competition—giving them legitimate national championship chops. Senior point guard Zakai Ziegler, a Knoxville fixture, ranks among the gutsiest guards in college basketball, pairing relentless heart with elite defensive skills. Then there's senior wing Jahmai Mashack, potentially the most complete defensive terror in the country.

8-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs (Midwest) +5000

Despite landing an 8-seed, Gonzaga sits at the 12th-best odds in Vegas to claim the National Championship—a clear nod from the bookmakers to the Bulldogs' potential. They're chasing a 10th straight Sweet 16 appearance, a feat that would fall just shy of UCLA's 14-year streak from 1967-80 (pre-64-team era) and North Carolina's standout run from 1981-93. The Zags boast Ryan Nembhard, one of the top point guards of the last decade, dishing out a nation-leading 9.8 assists per game. Pair him with Graham Ike, a low-post menace who can drop 20 on any given night, and you've got firepower. It's been a rollercoaster year for Gonzaga, but their top-10 ranking in predictive metrics ensures they'll have every opponent on edge in this bracket.

3-seed Kentucky Wildcats (Midwest) +6000

Kentucky slotted as a No. 3 seed, brings a bench with serious depth—eight players logging more than 15 minutes per game, a critical edge in the fast-paced tournament slog. Their attack is versatile, with six players hitting double digits in scoring. The biggest shakeup came when Mark Pope, a former Wildcat center, replaced John Calipari, retooling the starting lineup. Unlike Calipari's reliance on dazzling freshmen, Pope's senior-laden squad racked up eight top-15 victories this season. They'd have lower odds if not for the injury bug: Lamont Butler's shoulder remains a worry, Jaxson Robinson's season ended with a wrist issue, and Kerr Kriisa's been sidelined since December. The Wildcats' offense averages 85.3 points per game, fueled by transfer gem Otega Oweh, who's averaged a team-high 16.2, with Butler and Koby Brea each adding 11.5.

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