Coke Zero 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 07/03/2008
Sprint Cup takes on Daytona Speedway for the second time this season as NASCAR starts their engines at 8:15 p.m. and races under the lights this Saturday night for the Coke Zero 400.
It will be hard to get more exciting than last year's race when Jamie MacMurray won by .005 seconds against Kyle Busch. This was the second closest finish since 1993 when NASCAR started using the electronic gadgets to time and score races and racecars.
Dayton's 2.5-mile tri-oval is one of the storied tracks in NASCAR's history. Restrictor plate racing has also been very good to Chevrolet. Gamblers who are interested in tracking trends should be aware that a Chevrolet has won at this track 11 of the last 15 years.
Who will win the Coke Zero 400?
Last year Kyle Busch left Hendrick Motorsports for Joe Gibbs Racing, which has proven to be the best off-season move since the Celtics traded for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnet. This year the younger Busch has dominated the circuit under his new team. Two weeks ago he won on the road in Sonoma but finished New Hampshire 25th. But a Busch still won the race. This time it was older brother Kurt, who looked like he won the lottery after the race was called due to rain. This week it looks more like we've seen in the past as Busch will be eager to take the checkered flag once again.
Pick! Kyle Busch, (5/1)
Coke Zero 400 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Coke Zero 400 this weekend. Last weekend we were solidly behind Dale Earnhardt, Jr as the 1.05 dog against Tony Stewart. A play based on the bad-luck dogging Stewart this year. Once again the No. 20 car snatched defeat from the jaws of victory (but even that didn't help us in our matchup). Stewart led the race for 132 laps and made a pit on a caution late in the race. He took two tires while eight other cars stayed on the track. Stewart was 14th on restart but the race was ended by NASCAR 17 laps early due to rain and virtually gave the win to Kurt Busch (who would have had to pit due to a broken rear shock that was clearly visible when the cars were frozen before the race was called. This was unfortunate for me on many levels as this left Stewart 13th and Junior 24th, which gave me a one unit loss. This brings my record Over-the-Wall to 10-11 with -2.20 units on the season after 17 of 36 Sprint Cup races have been completed.
Long Odds Value Pick
Last year's victory over Kyle Busch ended MacMurray's 166-race winless streak. The driver of the No. 26 Crown Royal Ford has not won since. And actually he hasn't even come close to winning since the Goody's Cool Orange 500 when he finished in eighth place. Over the years, though, he has had a modicum of success before winning last year's Pepsi 400. In 2005 he came in second at the Pepsi 400 and he also finished in eighth place in this race in 2006. In 11 starts at Daytona he has recorded one win, two top-five and three top-10s. While his eight DNFs at Daytona are under-whelming, after Ryan Newman won the spring race one thing is certain this weekend's Fourth of July weekend is wide open so why not go for the repeat?
Pick! Jamie MacMurray, 40/1
Square Tire Pick
Kurt Busch (-1.40) vs. Clint Bowyer (+1.10)
Sure, now that Kurt Busch has won his first race this year and Tony Stewart has no wins in 2008 that makes the older Busch a huge favorite in the matchup against the pilot of the 07 Jack Daniels car. And there is a reason for this as Busch runs well at Daytona. Before last weekend the only other time he has recorded a top-five finish was when he finished runner-up to Ryan Newman at the Daytona 500. He even managed to lead the race for nine laps. Between races, though, he has only led two other races; for one lap at the Dodge Challenger 500 where he finished 12th and for 64 laps at the Coca-Cola 600 where he led for 64 laps but ultimately finished the race in 16th place after starting in eighth. In the long run we're going to play the momentum game and pick the better restrictor plate driver and the driver that has a better finishing position at Daytona.
Pick! Kurt Busch, No.2, (-1.40)
Coke Zero 500 Odds
Saturday, July 5th (6:30 p.m. EST)
Daytona International Speedway, FL
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby LaBonte 60/1
Boris Said 150/1
Brian Vickers 35/1
Carl Edwards 30/1
Casey Mears 50/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1
Dario Franchitti 150/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 60/1
David Ragan 40/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Elliott Sadler 40/1
Greg Biffle 40/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Johnny Sauter 150/1
Jon Wood 150/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Kevin Harvick 20/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Mark Martin 28/1
Martin Truex Jr. 35/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael McDowell 150/1
Michael Waltrip 50/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 20/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Sterling Marlin 150/1
Terry Labonte 100/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog.