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2024 Cleveland Guardians Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/20/2024

Cleveland Guardians predictions Shane Bieber

Summary of Last Season

Another one of those clubs who seems unable to get over the hump of being a middle of the pack team, the Cleveland Guardians went on to finish third in the AL Central with a record of 76-86 and found themselves 13 games out of the wild card. The offense struggled to produce, and the pitching struggled to find consistency. Only one Guardians player managed to hit more than 20 homeruns, while only three Guardians pitchers managed to total more than 100 innings.

The lone Guardian to eclipse the 20-homerun mark was slugger Jose Ramirez, who also led the league with 172 hits and finished second in WAR and RBIs. 1B Josh Naylor led the team with 97 RBIs and an .842 OPS, while OF Steven Kwan led Cleveland with 93 runs scored. The Guardians ranked 27th in OPS and runs while finishing 30th in homeruns. They did, however, strike out the least among any club and they were active on the basepath. Cleveland finished 5th in the MLB in stolen bases, with Andres Gimenez leading the way with 30 and Kwan, Ramirez, and Myles Straw all recording 20 or more.

The Guardians rotation was led by Shane Bieber, who would finish with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in a down year for the ace. Tanner Bibee was the team leader in ERA (for starters) with a 2.98 mark and would go on to post a 10-4 record with a 3.6 WAR. Logan Allen and Gavin Williams provided plenty of production behind Bieber and Bibee, as the two combined for 40 starts, 207.1 innings, and averaged a 3.55 ERA. Emmanuel Clase is one of the best shutdown pitchers in baseball, and his 44 saves led the MLB and the closer finished with a 3.22 ERA.

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Cleveland Guardians Key Additions/Losses

The Guardians chose not to be incredibly active in the offseason, as the exits far outnumber what the team brought in ahead of the new season. They lost rentals Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, DFA’d Cal Quantrill, who was ultimately shipped to Colorado, and they traded away slugging C Christian Bethancourt, who was initially claimed off waivers earlier in the offseason.

In terms of significant additions, outside of reliever Scott Barlow, the only other impactful addition was signing C Austin Hedges. Not a great offseason for a club coming off a losing season.

Cleveland Guardians Prospect Outlook

SS/2B Brayan Rocchio is the club’s number one overall prospect and is likely to compete to be the club’s starting shortstop at the beginning of the campaign. The youngster posted a .600 OPS in his 23 games last season. The team’s third overall prospect, SP Daniel Espino, will get a good look at spring training. And if he does well, the plan would be for him to reinforce the rotation behind Bieber and Bibee.

Outside of Rocchio, there are a couple of other exciting prospects to talk about that could provide great depth in the outfield. Chase DeLauter (4th), George Valera (5th), Petey Halpin (21st), Johnathan Rodriguez (25th), and Jhonkensy Noel (29th) all have the ability to make the big-league club, with all but DeLauter at big league camp this spring.

Cleveland Guardians X-Factors

Front Office- The offseason was very mild for a team who has two of the league’s better players in Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber, and those two aren’t getting any younger. The club is full of prospects ready to break out, so the key heading into the season is if, and when, do the Guardians focus on the future. The rotation is competitive enough, but the offense is a huge question mark. Ramirez and Bieber would both bring in big returns, especially if dealt together. With the quiet offseason, I think this is the direction the team is headed.

Rotation Development- As it stands now, the projected starting rotation looks to feature the likes of Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Williams, Bibee, and Allen. The average age of this rotation is just over 25 years old. If Bieber is dealt, then the rotation will likely add the 23-year-old Espino and get even younger. These guys could be dangerous as they develop over the years and the team is able to retain them, and their performance in the early days of the season could determine how the front office decides to act at the Trade Deadline.

Cleveland Guardians Expectations

The expectations for this club are to wait and see. The AL Central is the worst division in the league, so the opportunity to climb the standings is always going to be there. If they start hot, they will likely buy. However, if they find themselves down double-digit games in the standings by June, the club will sell and look to develop for the years to come. The good news is the division makes either choice easy, as no other AL Central team seems to have a huge window of opportunity over the next few years.

Cleveland Guardians Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +7500

Pennant Winners- +3200

Division Winners- +400

AL MVP- Jose Ramirez- +2200

Cleveland Guardians Predictions

Their projected win total currently sits at 78.5, which would mean a three-game improvement on last season. However, I am going to take the chance and say this team has a higher ceiling than you may expect. If Bieber returns to form and the rotation produces nicely behind him, then the team will be more involved in adding a bat. Not considering money, Cody Bellinger is a name that can be added to the scrambled outfield. I like the over on this win total, as I heavily favor this rotation’s potential and the offensive production will follow. Over win total and they will give the Twins a run for their money for the division crown.

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