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2023 Cleveland Browns Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/8/2023

Cleveland Browns predictions Nick Chubb

I’m not sure if any other team in the NFL has endured as much drama over the last six years as the Cleveland Browns.

In 2017, they suffered the indignity of going 0-16.

In 2018, they had two Top 5 draft picks, the first of which they squandered on Baker Mayfield (just a few years after taking Johnny Manziel in the first round).

Heading into 2019, they were Everybody’s Sleeper Team, with some idiots even predicting AFC or Super Bowl championships for this Freddie Kitchens led ensemble.

In 2020, the Browns were again among the trendiest preseason picks in the league. And for once they came through, going 11-5.

That led to even MORE offseason hype around this team heading into 2021. And the Browns drove the bandwagon over a cliff again during an 8-9 slog.

Finally, heading into last season, the Browns dominated the offseason with their absurd trade to acquire Deshaun Watson.

Drama. Lots and lots of drama. And not a lot of wins.

Cleveland has finished with a losing record in 14 of the last 15 seasons, and they are just 25-40-1 against the spread since the start of the 2019 season.

However, heading into this season, the volume has been turned down on the offseason hype. Cleveland enters the 2023 campaign as an afterthought, a longshot to make the playoffs even.

Maybe that can work to their advantage, and maybe this group is ready to actually surpass expectations for once.

Then again: it is the Browns.

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CLEVELAND BROWNS 2023 OFFENSE

Deshaun Watson is an unrepentant scumbag. I was happy to laugh at him – and the Browns management – last year while he flopped and flailed around during a disgusting six-game audition.

Were Watson’s 2022 issues rust? That is the question that may define Cleveland’s 2023 season.

Watson put up some big numbers in Houston. However, he tends to hold onto the ball too long, and he fumbles too much (28 times in his last 53 games). The first step in regaining his Pro Bowl form must include not turning the ball over.

Cleveland is desperate for Watson to rebound. Their passing game, featuring Amari Cooper, Don Peoples-Jones, and intriguing Elijah Moore, isn’t exactly explosive. And we’ll have to see how Watson manages without a guy like DeAndre Hopkins to bail him out.

Fortunately for the Browns, the strength of the team is still the offensive line and the running game. These guys have four Pro Bowl-caliber offensive linemen in the fold and Nick Chubb has averaged 1,268 yards and 10 touchdowns in his five-year career.

I have a sinking suspicion that Chubb could get hurt this season after taking 329 touches last year. (He was also ranked in an ESPN poll as the best running back in the NFL. As if that isn’t a huge jinx.) If that happens, the Browns are in trouble.

CLEVELAND BROWNS 2023 DEFENSE

The Browns dropped from No. 5 in total defense in 2021 to just No. 14 last year. They also regressed in points allowed, finishing 20th or worse for the seventh time in eight years after vaulting up to No. 13 in 2021.

That regression cost defensive coordinator Joe Woods his job. Cleveland recruited Jim Schwartz to be his replacement. Look for a much more aggressive, attacking style out of this bunch this year.

Cleveland’s 14.8 defensive yards per point was No. 28 in the league last year and puts them in a bounce back range for this season.

Myles Garrett is a future Hall of Famer at one end. The Browns are rolling the dice that erratic Za’Darius Smith can stay focused enough to be a compliment on the other side after Cleveland was No. 27 in the league in sacks last year.

Former Vikings defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson was a big-ticket free agent signing. He and third-round pick Siaki Ika are expected to bolster a weak run defense that was in the bottom 10 in both rush yards allowed and yards per attempt.

Cleveland added safety Juan Thornhill to an already stacked secondary. Schwartz’s blitz-happy style should create more opportunities for this group to create turnovers after the stop unit took the ball away just 11 times last season.

CLEVELAND BROWNS 2023 SCHEDULE

Sun, Sep 10     1:00 PM            vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Mon, Sep 18    8:15 PM            @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Sep 24     1:00 PM            vs. Tennessee Titans

Sun, Oct 1         1:00 PM            vs. Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Oct 15      1:00 PM            vs. San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Oct 22      1:00 PM            @ Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Oct 29      4:05 PM            @ Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Nov 5       1:00 PM            vs. Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Nov 12     1:00 PM            @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Nov 19     1:00 PM            vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Nov 26     4:05 PM            @ Denver Broncos

Sun, Dec 3        4:25 PM            @ Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Dec 10     1:00 PM            vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Dec 17     7:00 PM            vs. Chicago Bears

Sun, Dec 24     1:00 PM            @ Houston Texans

Thu, Dec 28     8:15 PM            vs. New York Jets

Sun, Jan 7         7:00 PM            @ Cincinnati Bengals

CLEVELAND BROWNS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

The Browns deserve all the bad karma headed their way because of their acquisition of Watson. I hate rooting for this group (and Watson), even when I have money bet on them.

But this is late-stage capitalism. Ethics and morals are secondary virtues.

Cleveland has the misfortune of playing in the best division in football. That means six brutal games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. Crossover games against the 49ers and at Seattle, as well as tilts against Denver and the Jets, are also tough.

The Browns finished a full game below their Pythagorean Wins Expectation last season. They also had four close losses. Those are positive indicators for this season.

I think there is going to be value with this squad. As you can see, I have them just outside of the Top 10, so I recognize the talent. I think the defense is going to improve under Schwartz, and the offense should be better now that Watson has knocked the rust off (and because of wide receiver reinforcements).

That should make for a better team.

There isn’t any value on their season win total number of 9.5. In fact, if I were to play this number, I would likely play it ‘under’. Someone has to finish in last place in the AFC North. I’m not saying it will be the Browns (although they are ranked the lowest in my power rankings), but I am saying the odds are that all four North teams don’t finish over .500.

The value with this team will be against the spread on a week-to-week basis. If they were in the NFC, they would be one of the top four teams. And Cleveland getting points is going to be tough to pass up this year.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

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