Citizen Bull Odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby with Picks and Predictions

by Joey House - 4/28/2025

After a three-year suspension for using a banned substance, legendary trainer Bob Baffert returns to Churchill Downs, aiming for a record-breaking seventh Kentucky Derby victory, with two formidable entries. Leading the charge for Baffert is Rodriguez, the 2025 Wood Memorial (G1) winner, showcasing sharp form. His second entry, Citizen Bull, is arguably the star—a three-time stakes winner, including the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), with electrifying speed with bettors buzzing. Both West Coast-trained horses are poised to dominate the historic Churchill Downs stage, enhancing Baffert's legacy as the modern Kentucky Derby's greatest trainer.

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Breeding: As expected of such an impressive contender, Citizen Bull's pedigree is second to none, sired by Into Mischief and the Distorted Humor-bred No Joke, and received an A+ from Equinline. Into Mischief, currently the sport's premier sire, produced consecutive Kentucky Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021). His black-type winners from Distorted Humor mares outnumber those from any other broodmare sire's daughters. Remarkably, all 11 of his stakes winners come from different dams, including Grade 1 stars Life Is Good, a multiple winner at 1 1/8 miles, and Practical Joke, successful up to 1 1/16 miles. Citizen Bull's dam, a half-sister to stakes winners Moonshine Memories (a multiple Grade 1 winner by Malibu Moon) and Indian Evening (by Indian Charlie, Swinford Stakes winner), adds further depth. Citizen Bull's third dam, Evil Elaine (by Medieval Man), a listed winner, produced five stakes earners, including 1997 Breeders' Cup Juvenile champion Favorite Trick (by Phone Trick), a rare 2-year-old Horse of the Year. She is also the granddam of Grade 1 winner, sire Tiz the Law (by Constitution), and Grade 3 winner and sire Fury Kapcori (by Tiznow). Citizen Bull's pedigree blends elite class with early speed, which may explain his lack of progress as a 3-year-old thus far.

Trainer: Trainer Bob Baffert needs no introduction with his six Derby wins, and his return to Churchill Downs for this year's Derby will be front and center for the national media and bettors alike. As mentioned previously, Baffert is tied with Ben Jones as the trainer with the most Kentucky Derby wins, with six each. Baffert tied Jones in the 2020 Derby run in September due to Covid 19. He would have broken the record the following year, but the winning horse, Medina Spirit, was disqualified for testing positive for a banned substance. Baffert is ranked 10th in North American trainers, with $3.4 million in earnings in 2025. However, this is over just 94 starts, and he is ranked first among trainers with 50+ starts and a winning percentage (33%).

Jockey: 40-year-old Martin Garcia has tons of experience but limited mounts so far in 2025, with 44 races and two victories, one of which was with Citizen Bull in the Richard B. Lewis (G3). He has won over 1800 races in his career and multiple Grade 1 Races. He guided Bayern to a Classic win in 2014 for Baffert. He has ridden in the Derby four times, with his best finish being 3rd in 2015 on the Baffert-trained Dortmund. These connections are top-notch and can only help the horse if he is good enough on the day.

Prior experience: Citizen Bull's performance resume is impressive. He's finished in the money in five out of his six races, with his last race in the 2025 Santa Anita Derby (G1) a disappointing fourth. He was a first-time-out winner in August last year, winning a 5 1/2 furlong at Del Mar. He finished third in the 2024 Del Mar Futurity. He rebounded quite nicely, with wins in the 2024 American Pharoah (G1), the aforementioned 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), and Richard B. Lewis (G3). In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on March 5, Citizen Bull, the second choice to Journalism, surged forward early but was quickly challenged by the pacesetter Westwood, who seized the lead with a blistering 22.25-second opening quarter. Jockey Martin Garcia shifted off the rail to duel Westwood down the backstretch, but an early move from the back by Baeza forced Citizen Bull to accelerate prematurely. Exhausted from the effort, he faded in the stretch as Journalism overtook him for the lead, and Westwood passed him late to claim third. This tiring performance raises concerns about Citizen Bull's ability to handle the longer distance and demanding pace of the upcoming Kentucky Derby.

Odds, Analysis, and Predictions: Citizen Bull's career began promisingly, and any winner of the Juvenile deserves consideration. However, red flags have been raised, with an extremely poor showing his last time out in the Santa Anita. He has the speed, earning a 106 Equibase speed rating for his win at the Breeders' Cup and a 107 for the Robert B. Lewis. Once again, the 94 he ran in the Santa Anita is alarming. Was Citizen Bull's last race an outlier, or does he have serious flaws? While that question won't be answered until the early evening of May 3, his early odds of 20-1 look very enticing and worthy of consideration.

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Start:	April 28, 2025 @ 8:00 PM
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