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2024 Cincinnati Reds Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/15/2024

Cincinnati Reds predictions Matt McLain

Summary of Last Season

The Reds came out of nowhere last season and showed the rest of the league that they are way ahead of schedule. They finished with an 82-80 record, 10 games out of first in the NL Central, and two games out of the last wild card spot. Their record was five games better than their expected record of 77-85 as they went 34-29 in one run games and 10-5 in extra innings.

Cincinnati’s lineup was full of young breakouts, and the most notable among them was none other than shortstop Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz stole 35 bases in just 98 games for the Reds last season and showcased some pop, hitting 13 homeruns and tallying 44 RBIs. His 144 strikeouts led the team despite mustering only 388 at-bats. Matt McLain and Spencer Steer joined De La Cruz in the lineup. Steer led the team with 23 homeruns and 86 RBIs while McLain hit 16 homeruns and stole 14 bases in just 89 games. TJ Friedl led the Reds with a 3.8 WAR and was second on the team in homeruns and stolen bases. The Reds ranked ninth in the MLB in runs, 14th in homeruns, 10th in OPS, and led the league with 190 stolen bases, which was 24 more than the second-place Diamondbacks.

The pitching was a bit of a problem for the Reds last season. Graham Ashcraft led the way with 145.2 innings but recorded an ERA of 4.76. Andrew Abbott was the only Reds starter to record a sub-4.00 ERA, as the lefty posted a 3.87 ERA across 109.1 innings of work and a 9.9 K/9 ratio. Hunter Greene’s elite 12.2 K/9 ratio was clouded by the youngster’s 4.82 ERA. Alexis Diaz was one of the league’s best closers, as the flamethrower finished with 37 saves and a 3.07 ERA over 67.1 innings of work. Lucas Sims and Ian Gibaut also performed well out of the bullpen, posting sub 3.50 ERAs, combining for a 3.6 WAR. Cincinnati ranked 25th in ERA and WHIP while also giving up the third most homeruns in the MLB.

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Cincinnati Reds Key Additions/Losses

The offseason was kind of quiet for the Reds as they are happy with the internal development. Harrison Bader, Buck Farmer, Curt Casali, Nick Senzel, and fan favorite Joey Votto all hit free agency.

The Reds got to work on improving their pitching staff as they added reliever Emilio Pagan on a two-year deal while bringing back Farmer. They also added Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas to provide a veteran presence in the rotation. The offense got a boost when they signed Jeimer Candelario to hold down the hot corner and extended Jonathan India, who is thought to be a valuable trade asset in the summer.

Cincinnati Reds Prospect Outlook

Cincinnati received bad news as their top-rated prospect, Noelvi Marte, was suspended 80 games for violating the league’s PED policy. Marte was projected to land a spot on the big-league roster, and his absence will severely limit the prospect impact this season. Pitchers Connor Phillips (4th) and Lyon Richardson (14th), along with outfielder Rece Hinds (16th), could all provide depth as the season progresses.

The Reds have one of the youngest rosters in the league. And after all the breakouts last season, this outlook is not a fair measure of just how well they have run their farm-system.

Cincinnati Reds X-Factors

Elly De La Cruz/Matt McLain- This duo could form into one of the MLB’s fastest and most electric duos. Both players could easily have 30/30 seasons at some point in their careers, and both can play multiple positions. De La Cruz runs as fast as he throws the ball, and Matt McLain can post top plays at the plate and on the field. It will be the duo’s first full season at the big-league level, and one can only guess how many bases they will steal.

Pitching- The Reds need to improve on their pitching from a season ago. It kept them from making the playoffs and from being real division title contenders. Signing Montas and Martinez was big, but they need to add a big-time arm if they want to make a playoff run. Lucky for them, they have plenty of prospects to trade and some wiggle room in the budget to make something happen.

Cincinnati Reds Expectations

The expectation for this young club is to make the playoffs. The rule, anything can happen in the playoffs, heavily applies to this team, as they have a very high ceiling and should showcase one of the MLB’s top lineups. If their pitching can get them there, the lineup will be able to score against anyone. Look for the Reds to be active at the trade deadline later in the summer.

Cincinnati Reds Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +5000

Pennant Winners- +2300

Division Winners- +350

NL MVP- Elly De La Cruz- +8000

NL Cy Young- Hunter Greene- +4000

NL Manager of the Year- David Bell- +600

Cincinnati Reds Predictions

The Reds will continue to take huge strides and could win the division this season. The Cubs and Cardinals got better, but the Brewers are taking a step back and the Pirates are years away. The ceiling for Cincinnati is higher than the Cubs and Cardinals, but there are still a lot of question marks surrounding the young team. If the front office can add some big names as the season goes on, and the electric duo, along with Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario can hit, then the Reds will win the division. David Bell at +600 to win the NL Manager of the Year is a great play.

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