Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2023 Cincinnati Bengals Predictions with Season Win Total Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 8/13/2023

Cincinnati Bengals predictions Joe Mixon

Here is some free, expert gambling advice: don’t ever make a preseason bet on who is going to win the championship in any sport. Especially the NFL.

Betting on who is going to win the Super Bowl this year is a waste of money. The odds are completely out of whack with what the actual payouts should be.

Let’s use the Cincinnati Bengals as an example, since I think that this is a championship-caliber team.

Right now, the odds on Cincinnati to win the Super Bowl, which they almost did just two short years ago, is somewhere around +900 or +1000.

That seems like a fat payout, right? You could bet an extra $1,000 on Cincinnati, and if they win you are taking home $10,000!

Those are terrible odds.

First, you need the Bengals to stay healthy and avoid any major injuries. Next, you need them to play well for an 18-week season. Then you need them to make the playoffs.

Cincinnati’s odds to make the postseason are around -350, so that is not a stretch. However, over the last 25 years, nearly half of the teams that make the postseason one season don’t make it the next. The Bengals are in that boat.

OK, so let’s say that the Bengals avoid any catastrophic injuries, they survive the fluke bounces and weird results that dot every season, and their play, relative to the other 15 teams in the AFC, grants Cincinnati a spot in the playoffs.

Well, now all the Bengals need to do is win four straight games against the best competition in the NFL!

Even if we ignore just how difficult it is in the NFL to make the playoffs, when your team makes the postseason then your Super Bowl futures ticket becomes, essentially, a four-team parlay. Because to cash, you would need Cincinnati to win four straight games.

Well, a four-team parlay typically pays out around 11-to-1. So even if the Bengals do win the Super Bowl, you’re still getting shorted.

And if we consider the regular season a “fifth game” on the parlay (they need to make the postseason and then win four in a row), then the payout on a typical five-team parlay is around +2,200.

Also consider that if you make this bet during the summer, then your money is tied up in this bet for around eight months. So, any team that is at +2500 or better odds isn’t worth a wager on.

Who does that leave? The Browns? The Vikings? The Raiders? Do you really want to bet on any of those losers to win the Super Bowl this year? I didn’t think so.

The bottom line is, never waste your money on a bet on who is going to win the Super Bowl. You’re going to lose. And even if you win, you still aren’t really winning.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2023 OFFENSE

Cincinnati has finished No. 7 in scoring each of the past two seasons, and they still don’t feel like they have peaked on this side of the ball.

It starts with the New Joe Cool, Joe Burrow. The Pro Bowl gunslinger has tossed 69 touchdowns to 26 interceptions over the past two seasons, completing nearly 70 percent of his tosses and averaging 4,500 yards per year. He is on the short list of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and his confidence and poise infect this entire roster.

It helps when you have one of the league’s most potent receiving corps.

Ja’Marr Chase is the stud No. 1 and one of the top wideouts in the league. Tee Higgins has averaged 70 catches, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns in his three seasons and is an outstanding second option. And Tyler Boyd, the team’s former No. 1, is a savvy veteran option capable of picking up the slack.

The Bengals had the fourth-worst rushing attack in football last season. They had the fourth-fewest attempts and the third-worst yards per carry. They must get better in this facet to help take the pressure off Burrow and the passing game.

The big offseason pickup was left tackle Orlando Brown. The Bengals added the cornerstone tackle one year after completely reshuffling the offensive line. The hope is that this group can take the next step after underachieving last season.

Cincinnati was able to retain Joe Mixon – and all of his offseason issues – after losing backup Samje Perine. Mixon has bracketed a dominating 2021 campaign with lackluster efforts in 2020 and 2022. They need him to regain his Pro Bowl form because there is minimal depth behind him. Though his uncertain future with the organization is a dark cloud over this offense.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2023 DEFENSE

The Bengals have improved their number of wins from two in 2019 to four in 2020 then to 10 in 2021 and finally up to 12 last year. There is a direct correlation between Cincinnati’s increasing wins and the decreasing points per game allowed by Lou Anarumo’s defense.

In Anarumo’s first season, Cincinnati allowed 26.3 points per game (No. 25). Since then, the Bengals have ranked No. 21 in 2020, No. 13 in 2021 and then No. 5 in 2022, allowing just 19.6 points per game last year.

Cincinnati was able to fashion last season’s effective stop unit despite finishing No. 28 in the league in sacks. Ends Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard are both legit. The Bengals get next to nothing from the rest of the line rotation, though, and are hoping that first round pick Myles Murphy can provide a spark.

The key was a secondary that allowed opponents to complete just 58.9 percent of their passes, the No. 1 pass defense in the league.

However, Cincinnati lost both starting safeties (Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates) this offseason. New free safety Nick Scott is a former starter and Super Bowl champion from the Rams, and Dax Hill is stepping up from a reserve role.

The Bengals mediocre linebackers are another issue. Logan Wilson is becoming a rock solid piece in the middle, and Germaine Pratt is an emotional leader. Neither has high-end talent, though, and there is zero depth behind these two.

Cincinnati used four draft picks on defensive players. That is good news for the future. It also means that if there are any injuries at any of the three levels, then the replacements will likely be green.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2023 SCHEDULE

Week 1: 9/10 at Cleveland Browns, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 2: 9/17 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 3: 9/25 vs. Los Angeles Rams (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 4: 10/1 at Tennessee Titans, 1:00 PM, FOX

Week 5: 10/8 at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 PM, FOX

Week 6: 10/15 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 7: BYE WEEK

Week 8: 10/29 at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 PM, CBS

Week 9: 11/5 vs. Buffalo Bills, 8:20 PM, NBC

Week 10: 11/12 vs. Houston Texans, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 11: 11/16 at Baltimore Ravens (Thursday), 8:15 PM, Amazon

Week 12: 11/26 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 13: 12/4 at Jacksonville Jaguars (Monday), 8:15 PM, ESPN

Week 14: 12/10 vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 PM, CBS

Week 15: TBD vs Minnesota Vikings, TBD, TBD

Week 16: 12/23 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Saturday), 4:30 PM, NBC

Week 17: 12/31 at Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 PM, CBS

Week 18: TBD vs. Cleveland Browns, TBD, TBD

CINCINNATI BENGALS 2023 SEASON PICKS AND PREDICTIONS

Teams don’t normally win 10+ games ATS in three straight years. At a certain point, the market catches up with teams, and I think that the Bengals are going to be hit-and-miss at the window this year.

The AFC North is, for my money, the best division in football. Cincinnati heads into the year as a healthy +150 favorites to win the AFC North. They have won the division in back-to-back seasons but have only made the playoffs three straight years (they made it five straight from 2011-2015) one time in the history of the franchise.

The Bengals beat their Pythagorean Wins Expectation by 1.6 games last year, which instantly puts them into a regression zone. Cincinnati also finished No. 2 in offensive yards per point (13.7 OYPP) and No. 3 in DYPP (17.3). They won’t match either of those numbers this season, and that could mean some unexpected struggles.

I love Burrow and his weapons. I like the Brown and Hendrickson signings. This is a legit squad.

There are holes, though. If Mixon goes down, then an already-bad running game could crater. The defensive back seven lacks high-end talent and cold become a mess.

This one is a no play for me. But if I had to make a move, I’m going to take the Bengals to go ‘under’ their 11.5 wins. They get bailed out by facing the AFC South along with Arizona and the Rams. Other than that, their schedule is brutal, with games against San Francisco, Buffalo and Kansas City on top of their fierce divisional slate.

It only takes six losses to come up short of this number. I have them straddling that 11-12 win mark.

Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past 13 years, earning nearly $40,000 in total football profit (average profit: +$3,800) between 2010-2019 alone. He has posted 9 of 13 winning seasons (including five of seven winning years) and produced an amazing 64 of 100 winning football months over the past 16 years. Robert has hit at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 1,000 totals picks and has posted 14 of 17 winning Super Bowls. Robert is looking for another winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers