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2024-25 Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/22/2024

Cincinnati Bearcats basketball predictions Simas Lukosius

The Bearcats did not earn their spot in the preseason AP Top 25 based off last year’s results. After starting the season winning 12 of their first 14 games, Cincinnati went just 7-11 in conference play last season, finishing 11th in the Big 12. They went 22-15 overall and posted a 4-8 record against AP Top 25 opponents. After making some noise in the conference tournament, that included beating Kansas by 20, the Bearcats earned extended postseason play as they got a spot in the NIT Tournament. They snuck past San Francisco in overtime in the first round and then proceeded to beat Bradley by 17 in the second round, before ultimately losing to Indiana State in the quarterfinals.

Cincinnati averaged 74.7 PPG last season on 44.3% shooting. They weren’t great from deep, shooting 33%, which was the third worst mark in the conference. The Bearcats also struggled mightily from the charity stripe, making just 68.8% of their free throws. The one strength of this Bearcats squad was their offensive rebounding where they were second in the conference in, averaging 13.3 per game. Their +7.2 RPG differential was the best in the conference and ranked 16th nationally. Dan Skillings Jr. led the team with 12.9 PPG while also bringing in 6.4 RPG. Simas Lukosius was second on the team with 11.8 PPG, while shooting 38.5% from beyond the arc. Day Day Thomas was the third leading scorer for the Bearcats as he averaged 10.4 PPG, while leading the team with 1.7 SPG.

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Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Key Additions/Losses

With Skillings, Lukosius, and Thomas all returning for the Bearcats, there wasn’t much work that needed to be done in the offseason. They did lose center Viktor Lakhin, who averaged 9.2 PPG and 6 RPG, as he transferred to Clemson. Cincinnati also lost depth pieces Jamille Reynolds who transferred to USF and Sage Tolentino who left for UNC-Ashville. Reynolds appeared in 28 games for the Bearcats, averaging 5.5 PPG on 14.3 minutes per game. Tolentino was further down on the depth chart as he appeared in just five games last season.

Cincinnati addressed their questionable forward depth by adding two four-star forwards Tyler Betsey and Tyler McKinley. Betsey ranked 52nd nationally and was the second highest rated prospect to come out of Connecticut. McKinley was ranked 88th nationally and was the second highest rated prospect out of Ohio. They also added transfer forward Dillon Mitchell who averaged 9.6 PPG and 7.5 RPG with Texas, and the junior should find himself in the starting five this season. Mitchell has been a reliable presence in college, shooting 60.2% from the floor over his two years in Texas. The Bearcats also replaced Lakhin by bringing in Arrinten Page who played in 27 games for USC last season, starting in four. Page will provide some solid depth down low, while transfer Connor Hickman should give Cincinnati a 3-Point weapon coming off the bench. Hickman averaged 14.5 PPG with Bradley last season, while shooting over 40% from beyond the arc.

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball X-Factors

Conference Play- The Bearcats will need to do a complete 180, or better, on their conference record this season, compared to last year’s conference performance. They struggled in games that mattered and wound up with a lowly 7-11 record in the Big 12. What the Bearcats have going for them is the experience up and down the roster. The aforementioned incoming freshman forwards should play some key minutes, but otherwise the Bearcats will be heavily reliant on their three returning starters, Mitchell, and Hickman off the bench. The Big 12 is a deep conference and now with Arizona, Colorado, and others joining the mix it is just getting tougher. They get Kansas, Arizona, Houston, and Iowa State just once this season with Kansas and Arizona making trips to Cincinnati. If they can pull take care of business at home and avoid slipping up, we could see the Bearcats in the Dance in March.

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Notable Games

Home- #10 Arizona, #1 Kansas, #8 Baylor

Away/Neutral- #8 Baylor, #5 Iowa State, #4 Houston, Georgia Tech

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +5000

Final Four: +1300

Conference Winner: +2500

Wooden Award: Dan Skillings - +12000

AP Top 25- 20th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 23rd

KenPom- 17th

Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Predictions

With six of their top eight scorers returning, as well as their top three scorers the Bearcats have a veteran laden roster and plenty of proven contributors. Add dynamic freshmen forwards (Betsey and McKinley), a sharpshooter (Hickman) and a proven two-way forward (Mitchell) and suddenly the Bearcats look like a highly competitive team. However, it has been their conference play that has limited the potential of this team over recent years as they have failed to reach the big dance. Even with the additions, the Bearcats are still a tier below Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor, and Arizona but if they can manage a winning conference record and set themselves up nicely in the Big 12 tournament, who knows what could happen. This is a 25+ win team that should finish in the top half of the conference.

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