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2024 Chicago Cubs Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/14/2024

Chicago Cubs predictions Justin Steele

Summary of Last Season

After a busy offseason in 2022, the Cubs missed the playoffs by just one game last season. Their 83-79 record was eight games below their expected record of 91-71 thanks to their losing efforts in one-run and extra inning contests. They finished second in a weaker NL Central but were able to finish ahead of the surging Cincinnati Reds before ultimately falling just one game behind Arizona for the last wild card spot.

Nico Hoerner led the Cubs offense with a 5.0 WAR thanks to 43 stolen bases, 68 RBIs, while slashing .283/.346/.383. Dansby Swanson would rank behind Hoerner with a 4.8 WAR after clubbing 22 homeruns and recording 80 RBIs. Cody Bellinger and Christopher Morel were tied for the team lead in homeruns with 26, while Bellinger led the way with 97 RBIs. Patrick Wisdom and Ian Happ were the other two members of the 20-homerun club, with Wisdom hitting 23 and Happ 21. The Cubs ranked 8th in OPS, 6th in runs scored, 15th in homeruns, and 8th in stolen bases.

The name Justin Steele had to be one of the biggest surprises last season. Steele would put together a Cy Young-caliber performance last year, as the ace finished 16-5 across 173.1 innings with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Kyle Hendricks and Marcus Stroman followed suit, and both recorded sub four ERAs, while throwing more than 130 innings. Jameson Taillon finished with the second most innings pitched but was rather underwhelming, as he recorded just nine quality starts in 29 tries and finished with a 4.84 ERA. Albert Alzolay was a big emerger out of the bullpen, as he led the team with 22 saves and finished the year with a 2.67 ERA. Chicago ranked 14th in ERA and 15th in WHIP as a team, last season.

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Chicago Cubs Key Additions/Losses

The offseason couldn’t have started any worse than it did for the Cubs. Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman declined their options, while Shane Greene, Jeimer Candelario, Michael Fulmer, and Tyler Duffey hit the free agent market.

However, as the offseason went on, the Front Office did a great job improving the roster. They filled the hole Stroman left by signing Shota Imanaga. They made a move with the Dodgers and brought in infielder Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte. Chicago then reinforced their bullpen even more by adding Hector Neris and returned Carl Edwards Jr. to the roster. If that wasn’t enough, they brought Bellinger back on a three-year deal and signed veteran bats in Dominic Smith, David Peralta, and Garrett Cooper.

Chicago Cubs Prospect Outlook

Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s top-rated prospect and has been knocking on the door of the big leagues since last season. The signing of Bellinger, along with the other flurry of veteran additions, almost cemented that Crow-Armstrong will begin the year in the minor leagues. Newly acquired Michael Busch (4th) will start the year as the club’s utility man and should provide a boost to the lineup when he plays. LHP Jordan Wicks (9th), OF Alexander Canario (12th), 1B Matt Mervis (15th), and LHP Luke Little (16th) are also expected to have an impact on the big-league level throughout the campaign. 

Chicago Cubs X-Factors

Seiya Suzuki- Suzuki improved last season with a .842 OPS, 20 homeruns, and 74 RBIs, but he is holding himself to an even higher standard. In a recent interview out of camp, Suzuki stated his desire to become a force in the lineup, behind Bellinger and Swanson. If he improves on his numbers from a season ago, the Cubs will not miss out on the playoffs.

The Rotation- The starting five for Chicago can quite literally end up on either extreme. They could be really good, or they could be really bad. Justin Steele will need to repeat his career year, Jameson Taillon will most definitely need to improve, and Shota Imanaga is a big wild card having never pitched in the MLB before. Kyle Hendricks is always reliable. And with him in the fourth spot, the Cubs have depth at the position. It really comes down to Steele becoming a name, Imanaga filling the Stroman-caused hole, and Taillon finding his stride again.

Christopher Morel- The Cubs love guys that can play multiple positions at the big-league level, and Morel fits as the 24-year-old can play across the diamond. In just 388 at-bats last season, Morel clubbed 26 homeruns and tallied 70 RBIs. In a full season, he should have no problem recording over 30 homeruns, something no Cubs player did last season. He will need to improve his average (.247 in 2023), but Morel could very well be an All-Star.

Chicago Cubs Expectations

Making the playoffs and winning the division. Milwaukee is down this season, the Pirates aren’t quite there, the Reds are heavily reliant on sophomore players, and the Cardinals are coming off an extremely disappointing season and are already faced with injury concerns. Chicago has the most complete roster within the division and will be willing to buy at the deadline in order to make a run at the World Series.

Chicago Cubs Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +3500

Pennant Winners- +1700

Division Winners- +200

NL MVP- Cody Bellinger- +10000

NL MVP- Dansby Swanson- +12000

NL Cy Young- Justin Steele- +1800

NL Rookie of the Year- Shota Imanaga- +1100

Chicago Cubs Predictions

The Cubs will win the division, Justin Steele could very well post Cy Young-caliber numbers, and Chicago should be well positioned in the playoffs. Imanaga, Morel, and even Steele are key to the club’s success. However, aside from an ultimate collapse, there is a lot of talent on this roster. Albert Azlolay will be one of the best closers in baseball, and the lineup should be much improved. I think the over 84.5 on the win total is a very strong wager.

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