Bowl Season Winning Betting Strategies

by Chris Vasile - 12/13/2021

We are now entering the most exciting time of the College Football season. Don’t get me wrong, the first 15 weeks of the season are all fine and dandy, with college games going off on Friday and Saturday to start the year. However, there is something about having games kicking off in the afternoon in the middle of the week as we approach the holiday season. These games go off one at a time, which gives us bettors a chance to watch every single bowl game (more or less) and wager our dollars accordingly (remember, never chase your losses). I hope everyone has a profitable Bowl season. And in order to ensure that, I’ve listed four important factors you must include when handicapping bowl games. Remember, these are not the be-all and end-all of handicapping angles, but they are certainly worth spending an extra few minutes on.

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Best Bowl Game Handicapping Factors

Motivation: At the beginning of each college football season, all teams start with a 0-0 record, which makes them, for lack of a better term, equals. Every single FBS team aspires to win “the big game”. However, only a select few can do so because of the conference they play in and the talent level they possess. That doesn’t mean teams from lesser conferences like the MAC or MWC aren’t giving it their all daily to give themselves the best chance at putting together a winning season and winning a bowl game. However, when Bowl Season rolls around, teams who had their College Football Playoff hopes crushed (i.e. Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame) are typically teams that will struggle to get up for Bowl Games against lesser opponents. Why would these programs be happy or be motivated to do well when the sole purpose of their season was to win the National Championship? It’s definitely a slippery slope to accuse a team of not trying as hard as it could possibly try. However, with players from these teams going to the NFL, a meaningless Bowl Game means nothing in the grand scheme of things. It’s imperative that you try and handicap a team’s motivation leading up to the Bowl Game as a team that slumped into it, losing three of their last four, likely won’t be ready to go compared to a team that had to win their last three games to get to six wins.

Momentum: This is where momentum comes into play. Momentum is a very hard thing to measure in sports. You can certainly see when one team has it on their side during a given game, but it’s hard to quantify over a large period of time. Teams that are making their bowl appearance after winning their last three games to get Bowl eligible would qualify as a team with a bit of momentum on their side as they are winning and feeling good about themselves. Teams who lost their last two games and who went through the motions as they secured Bowl eligibility a while back are unlikely to be ready to go from the opening kick-off. However, it’s important to understand that momentum is not the be-all and end-all. Just because a team won three straight coming into their bowl game, doesn’t mean they match up well against their opponent. Be vigilant when using this angle.

Personnel: This is arguably the biggest thing to keep an eye out for during Bowl Season. Over the last handful of years, we’ve seen an increasing number of players decide to opt-out of playing in the Bowl game to prep for the upcoming NFL Draft. There are two types of through processes with players who do that. The first is good for them and lets them prep for the draft so they can finally get paid for their talent. The flip side of the coin is the thought of how a player could leave their team hanging like that. Win as a team, lose as a team. The season is not over, therefore the player shouldn’t skip this game. I don’t really have an opinion either way as I see both sides of the coin. However, what I do have an opinion on is understanding how much the absent player is worth to the spread. Keep an eye out for serious line movement with players opting out and be sure to justify if the line movement is warranted or if it’s a bit of an overreaction.

Travel: There are some teams that get to go to the Bahamas to play in a bowl game, while some get to go to Idaho and play in the Potato Bowl in freezing cold temperatures. Some games are played within a reasonable driving distance from the team’s home campus, while some schools are flying across the country to play in a bowl game. Travel matters. If a team was not good on the road during the regular season, chances are they going to struggle traveling to a neutral venue stadium. The support of the fans matters as well as I don’t see many Kent State fans traveling 30 hours to Boise to cheer on their team. This Bowl is essentially a home game for the Wyoming Cowboys as they play 10 hours away in Laramie. Travel matters and can be used as an effective handicapping tool for Bowl season.

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Start:	November 23, 2024 @ 8:00 PM
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Bowl Season Winning Betting Strategies

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