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2024 Big Ten Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/29/2024

Big Ten football predictions Hudson Card Purdue Boilermakers

Bigger is better.

Now, most of us are educated, experienced, or at least conditioned enough to know that is not always true.

But sometimes it is! And when looking at the new 18-team Big Ten, it is tough to argue that this conference isn’t currently its best self.

As much fun as it has been to watch teams like Iowa and Wisconsin slog their way through 10-6 slugfests over the years, an injection of high-end programs from the formerly-rival-now-defunct Pac-12 has definitely added some sizzle to the Big Ten’s steak.

The additions of Oregon and USC, and to a lesser extent Washington and UCLA, has not only opened the Big Ten’s national footprint and given them access to major West Coast media markets. It has also boosted the ceiling of this league and helped morph it into a worthy contender to the SEC for college football supremacy.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Here is my 2024 Big Ten football predictions:

The Favorite: Ohio State (+150)

The Buckeyes have been in the Preseason Top 5 in 11 of the past 12 years. They have been ranked No. 2 or higher at some point in 10 straight seasons. They won the National Championship as recently as 2020. And they would’ve won another national title in 2022-23 if Marvin Harrison Jr. hadn’t gotten hurt in the semifinal playoff game against Georgia. Yet, for some reason, head coach Ryan Day is on the hot seat. Sometimes I don’t understand college football at all. Sure, Ohio State has lost to Michigan three straight seasons. But Michigan has been pretty good! The Buckeyes are loaded up for a potential championship run – as long as two things happen. First, they need new quarterback Will Howard to throw the ball a hell of a lot better than he did at Kansas State. Second, they need at least a split of their two big road games (at Oregon Oct. 12 and at Penn State Nov. 2) to set themselves up in prime playoff position. It’s national title or bust for this group, even if that is ridiculous.

The Contender: Oregon (+200)

Welcome to the Big Ten, Ducks. Oregon is coming off a 12-2 season in which it lost to just one team (national runner-up Washington) by three points on two separate occasions. The Ducks are swapping out transfer quarterback Bo Nix for well-traveled transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel has been a winner everywhere he’s been (UCF, Oklahoma), and he has 125 touchdowns to just 26 interceptions for his career. The Ducks were No. 2 in the country in scoring and No. 2 in total offense last year. If Gabriel can keep them at this level, then Oregon has the goods to win the Big Ten. The Ducks were No. 9 in scoring defense and outscored their opponents by 28 points per game. Ten of Oregon’s wins were by 14 or more points. And they didn’t just beat teams, they dominated them. Their Oct. 12 home game against Ohio State will be one of the biggest games of the college football season.

The Dark Horses:

Penn State (+500)

Penn State opens the 2024 season No. 8 in the AP poll. This is now the ninth straight season in which they’ve found their way inside the top eight at some point in the year. Penn State is yet to play in a national playoff game, though, and just haven’t broken through since winning the Big Ten title in 2016. New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has been tasked with adding creativity and explosiveness to an attack that has averaged just 19.3 points per game while going 0-6 the last three years against Michigan and Ohio State. Quarterback Drew Allar is now in his third year as a starter and needs to step forward and become a star if Penn State is going to find that next level. The Nittany Lions dodge both Oregon and Michigan, and they get Ohio State in Happy Valley. This feels like a now-or-never season for Penn State, who absolutely must make the playoffs for this season not to feel like a disappointment.

Iowa (+4000)

They are who they are. Iowa is never going to be a national player. They know that. So sometimes good enough is just going to have to be good enough. The Hawkeyes have had 11 straight winning years, have had just one losing season in the past 18 years, and they’ve won 10 or more games four times in that stretch, including last year. They do it with defense and special teams, and I don’t see any reason why this season will be any different for them. Iowa has 16 starters back and one of the more experienced teams in the country. They also, like Penn State, miss both Oregon and Michigan on the schedule. The Hawkeyes get six of their first nine games at home and will be a problem for whomever rolls down to Kinnick Stadium.

The X-Factors:

Michigan (+800)

I don’t think that any team in the country lost as much as the Wolverines. Jim Harbaugh and defensive coordinator Jesse Minter are gone. A school-record 13 drafted players are gone. Their ace quarterback (J.J. McCarthy) and an all-time school great running back (Blake Corum) are gone. So, what’s left? Well, plenty. Michigan’s defense is still absolutely stacked. And new head coach Sherrone Moore will keep most of the same systems and will try to maintain the same culture that Harbaugh built. The problem is that we just don’t know what to expect from the offense with so many new pieces. That will put more pressure on a defense that is still very talented but has nowhere to go but down after an epic 2023 performance. The Wolverines get Texas and USC in Ann Arbor in September and host Oregon on Nov. 2. They are 100% losing to Ohio State, so the Wolverines will need at least two wins in those other three marquee games to have a shot at the playoffs. I’m not counting on it, as every statistical indicator points toward a big step back.

USC (+2000)

You don’t just replace a guy like Caleb Williams. Lincoln Riley has proven over and over again, though, that his offenses are going to score points. And he will again this season. But is USC going to stop anyone? The Trojans defense has been beyond pathetic the last two years, and last season they finished No. 118 in points allowed and No. 116 in total defense. If these guys are going to compete in the Big Ten, they will need to toughen up. Quickly. USC welcomes in a load of experienced transfers on D. Molding them into a cohesive unit is paramount. The Trojans also have one of the most difficult schedules in the country, with games against LSU and Notre Dame in the nonconference and tussles with Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn State on the docket. They also have several landmine games (at Minnesota, at Maryland with an early kickoff, Nebraska) that could go sideways.

The Disappointments:

Washington (+8000)

When I wrote that I don’t think that any team in the country lost as much as the Wolverines, I could feel Washington faithful raising their hands. Like Michigan, the Huskies lost their head coach, first round draft pick quarterback, and pretty much everyone else from their roster. Unlike Michigan, the Huskies didn’t have wave after wave of top recruits to fill in for the departed starters that they lost to the NFL and transfer portal. Jedd Fisch parlayed one good season into a job with the Huskies. Fisch went 6-18 in his first two seasons before a miraculous 10-3 run at Arizona last year. I am still not sold on this guy. And there is simply too much turnover on this roster not to expect Washington to take a massive step back. I think they will go from making the championship one year to missing a bowl the next.

Northwestern (+25000)

I don’t even know where to start with the 2023 Northwestern season. These guys parlayed an us-against-the-world/do-it-for-coach mindset, a giant chip on their shoulder, an easy schedule, and six wins by eight points or less (three by three points or fewer) into one of the most surprising eight-win seasons you will ever see. It’s not happening again. Say what you want about Pat Fitzgerald, but he was one of the best coaches in the country and he is going to be missed. The Wildcats do have 14 starters back, but the talent level and depth are still paper thin. I pray that this group can start 3-0 against a soft nonconference schedule. That will fatten them up to get slaughtered in conference play, and I don’t see them winning more than two Big Ten games.

The Undervalued:

Indiana (+20000)

This is an entirely new team. New coach and staff. New quarterback. Fifteen transfers that are projected to start. That creates some uncertainty. And that creates some value. New is good when your team has gone 9-27 SU and 13-23 ATS over the past three years. Curt Cignetti has never had a losing season as a head coach and brings plenty of confidence and swagger to Bloomington. He’s stepping up in class from James Madison. That wasn’t a problem when he led JMU from FCS to FBS, though, and we’ll see if Cignetti is up to the challenge. He brought several of his top players from James Madison and welcomes two-time All-MAC quarterback Kurtis Rourke under center. No one is exactly sure what to expect from this group. I think that provides some value.

Minnesota (+20000)

P.J. Fleck isn’t done rowing. I don’t think that he is out of tricks just yet. If you throw out the 2020 campaign, Minnesota has won 11, 9, 9 and 6 games. The guy can coach. And he has a sneaky deep roster to work with. The Gophers have eight starters back on defense. Two years ago, they dominated on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.8 points per game. And three years ago they surrendered just 17.3. If they can get back to that level, this team will be in business. A lot is on new quarterback Max Brosmer, a five-year player at New Hampshire that was an FCS Heisman finalist. Minnesota will be an underdog in eight games this year, but I think Fleck will get them to a bowl game.

The Rest:

Nebraska (+5000)

Much like Miami, we’ve been hearing “Nebraska is BACK!” stories for most of the last decade. It hasn’t clicked. I don’t know that the Huskers are ever going to be ‘back’ to the point that they are a national powerhouse. They could be good enough to be a player in the Big Ten race this year, though. And a favorable schedule could have them 6-1 or even 7-0 heading into an Oct. 26 date with Ohio State. Nebraska has been comically bad in close games, going 6-23 SU in games decided by seven points or fewer over the past five years. If Matt Rhule can get them to hold their nerve and execute in late-game settings, this could be a big year for the Huskers.

Wisconsin (+6000)

The Badgers are getting dangerously close to becoming “just another team”. The last time they won 10 or more games was 2019. And after back-to-back 7-6 seasons, they are now an afterthought in the Big Ten race. Luke Fickell needs to turn things around in Madison, quickly. Wisconsin’s first attempt at cranking up a pass-happy offense went very poorly last year, as quarterback injuries and shaky offensive line play (when does that happen for Wisconsin?) really hindered this squad. Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke is looking to write a new chapter and will have a lot of pressure on him now without running back Braelon Allen to lean on.

Rutgers (+10000)

I almost tossed Rutgers in the Undervalued list. I’m bullish on this team. From what I’ve been reading, so are a lot of other people. Greg Schiano is a tough, hard-nosed coach, and he’s proven that he can win in Piscataway. This year he has the best roster since his return to Rutgers in 2020. A lot will hinge on turnover-prone Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis at quarterback. But stud rusher Kyle Monangai and a veteran offensive line will do a lot of heavy lifting. Rutgers was No. 10 in the country in pass defense and No. 16 in scoring defense last year. If they can be in that neighborhood again this season, and with an improved offense, the Scarlet Knights are not going to be a pushover. They also have the easiest schedule in the league, missing Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Iowa this season. They should make back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade.

Maryland (+15000)

Taulia Tagovailoa was an excellent three-year starter at quarterback for this squad and has moved on. His departure has opened a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball. The Terps were No. 21 in the country in passing offense but just No. 114 on the ground. Tagovailoa did a lot of heavy lifting. Coincidentally, his three years under center also coincided with the only three winning seasons that head coach Mike Locksley has ever produced. I am not a fan of Locksley’s at all, and I think the Terps are going to be duds this year. They do have a lot of experience back from a defense that was Top 40 across the board. Any slip on that side of the ball, and it won’t matter that Maryland has one of the Big Ten’s easiest schedules.

Illinois (+25000)

We are getting into put-up-or-shut-up territory for Bret Bielema. Bielema was great at Wisconsin. He flamed out in five uninspired years in Arkansas. And now he’s entering Year 4 in Champaign with exactly one winning season to show for it. It’s time to get it going or get going. Illinois wasn’t good offensively or defensively last year, and they were outscored by an average of five points per game. All five of their wins were by six points or less (four by three points or fewer) and nine of their 12 games were determined by one score. They were competitive, anyway. Illinois went 3-9 ATS last season, so there’s nowhere to go but up. And if they don’t raise quickly then Bielema will be gone.

UCLA (+20000)

Chip Kelly bolted and left new head coach DeShaun Foster in a tough spot. The Bruins enter 2024 with their worst roster in four years, and they are transitioning to a new conference. The Bruins quietly had one of the best defenses in college football last year. That won’t be the case this season, and the new scheme will be tested early in games against LSU, Oregon and Penn State. The Bruins will also be shifting away from Kelly’s run-heavy attack to an offense built by former Chiefs OC Eric Bieniemy. I think that UCLA’s program trajectory and Bieniemy’s career trajectory are heading in the same direction. And it ain’t good.

Purdue: (+30000)

Last season was a clear rebuilding year for the Boilermakers after Jeff Brohm bailed for Louisville. Ryan Walters did yeoman’s work and tried to drag a roster bereft of talent to a third straight winning season. He came up short but is better positioned in Year 2 of his tenure. Purdue has a solid quarterback, former blue chip recruit Hudson Card, and five returning starters along the offensive line. They must improve defensively, though, and the Boilermakers are going to be held back by the fifth-toughest schedule in the country.

Michigan State (+30000)

I still think it is hilarious that Michigan State hired Mel Tucker and didn’t know that it was going to be a disaster. Tucker drove the Spartans off a cliff and was unceremoniously fired for off-field issues. Now Jonathan Smith, erstwhile of Oregon State, is here to pick up the pieces. Smith did a fantastic job rebuilding the OSU program, and I feel confident that he’ll eventually get things going in East Lansing. Smith’s first job is improving the No. 128 scoring offense (15.9 PPG) and No. 125 total offense in the country. Good luck with that.

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