2007 Big Ten Conference Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/28/2007
The Big Ten's biggest challenge this year is to prove to the world that the mounds of humiliation heaped upon them in the BCS last year were just a fluke. Ohio State was horrific in the National Championship Game that everyone in the world outside of Gainesville was certain they would win, and Michigan stunk it up so badly against USC that, as a Michigan fan, I still have a bitter taste in my mouth. Only Wisconsin looked like they belonged in their game, beating Arkansas easier than the 17-14 score would indicate.
Those three teams should be the class of the conference again. In fact, none of the other teams in the conference should be able to give any of the big three even a slight scare at the end of the season unless something goes very wrong. It will be a season of transition for the big programs, though. Ohio State has to replace not only Heisman winner Troy Smith, but also the ridiculous number of other high draft picks that headed to the NFL last season. It will take a while to see how they will cope without talents like Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez. They basically have to start from scratch with the skill positions. Wisconsin has to find a replacement for their own QB, the grossly underrated John Stocco. The choice isn't clear, but whether it is Allan Everidge or Tyler Donovan they will have the benefit of nine returning starters on offense to make the transition smooth. Michigan's holes are on defense. Losing Alan Branch, Leon Hall and David Harris at once is a lot to overcome.
Teams on the rise:
Wisconsin. It's not that I think the Badgers will be much better. Really, they were pretty darned good last year. The difference, I think, is that they will hopefully finally be recognized nationally for what they are. They have to face Ohio State, which they avoided last year, but they get to play Michigan at home, so the schedule could be worse. They don't face either team until the 10th game of the season, so they have lots of time to work out the kinks and be at their best. The Badgers could be the ones to shake up this conference a bit.
Iowa. The Hawkeyes have no reason not to be better than their 6-7 record of last year. They have 15 returning starters, a promising new QB in Jake Christensen and they somehow managed to avoid both Michigan and Ohio State on the schedule. I don't think they will be contenders, but they will almost surely improve.
Teams on the decline:
Michigan State. I don't think Michigan State will be any worse than the 4-8 they put up last year, but the difference is that they were a better team than that last season, and I don't think that they are this time. The defense returns a lot of players, but that's not a good thing when the unit was terrible last year. The offense is facing a total overhaul. QB Brian Hoyer could be very good, but it's uncertain how he will do with an inexperienced line and new skill players.
Ohio State. It's very possible that Ohio State will stay at the top of the conference, but I put them on the decline because the gap has definitely closed between them and their opponents. They have lost a pile of talent, and won't be as powerful as they were last year. It will be interesting to see how the public compensates for that at the betting window.
Treading water (hasn't done much to improve):
Purdue. The Boilermakers, for the most part, are usually not good enough to be among the elite, but not bad enough to cause outrage with their fans. I expect the same again. They have nine returning starters on each side of the ball, but last year's team was just good, and far from great. They'll get eight or nine wins again, but they haven't done enough to take a step forward.
Money player (player to bet on):
Chad Henne, QB, Michigan. Henne has no excuses not to shine this year. He has as much experience as any player in the country, he has a loaded offense and he has a fairly easy schedule for the first 10 weeks to feast on.
Bankroll buster (player to avoid betting on):
Juice Williams, QB, Illinois. Williams is a deceptively attractive quarterback. He's young and flashy - a magnet for bettor's money. Through no fault of his own, though, he plays for a crappy coach in Ron Zook and he is surrounded by questions. He doesn't have the tools around him to capitalize on his ability. Maybe one day, but not now.
Important betting trends:
The public didn't jump all over the conference last year as you might think. All three of the top teams were profitable on flat bets over the season, and Wisconsin, at 9-2-1 ATS, were stars at the betting window.
Potential Conference champion:
Michigan. This conference is wide open, and I am admittedly biased, but the Wolverines are my choice. They have 10 very winnable games to start the season (unless Notre Dame has improved dramatically), which gives the new defense lots of time to get comfortable, and they get Ohio State at home. If they come out embarrassed by the end of last season, and they can channel that frustration, then they could be dangerous. That being said, I wouldn't be that surprised if no team makes it through unbeaten.
Key games:
Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 17. It goes without saying that this is a huge game. It always is.
Wisconsin at Penn State, Oct. 13. The Nittany Lions will be solid again, so this could be a potential hiccup for Wisconsin. It is their first major test, and Happy Valley is a scary place to play.
Predicted order of finish:
Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern.