2007 Big Ten Conference Predictions
by Doc - 08/24/2007
The following is how I see the Big Ten Conference playing out for the 2007 season. Below you will find some tidbits of how I have analyzed each team, along with their strengths and weakness.
Big Ten Conference Predictions: Order Of Finish
1) Michigan 7-1 (11-1)
2) Penn State 6-2 (10-2)
3) Iowa 5-3 (9-3)
4) Ohio State 5-3 (9-3)
5) Purdue 5-3 (9-3)
6) Wisconsin 5-3 (9-3)
7) Illinois 4-4 (7-5)
8) Michigan State 2-6 (5-7)
9) Minnesota 2-6 (5-7)
10) Northwestern 2-6 (6-6)
11) Indiana 1-7 (4-8)
Michigan Wolverines 7-1 (11-1)
Could this finally be the year be the year that Lloyd Carr meets the hefty expectations put on this program? The pressure is certainly mounting, as this team has not won a bowl game since 2002 and has not beaten Ohio State since 2003. Nobody on this veteran ball club has done either, but the schedule favors them this season as they play Notre Dame, Penn State and Ohio State at home.
The offense should be loaded and should be able to roll up the points against any team with a suspect defense. The defense only returns four starters. However, defensive coordinator Ron English has plenty of talent to work with. Ohio State returned only four starters in 2004, yet became one of the top defenses in the country. Look for this Michigan team to make a similar statement. I feel this team could run the table but must defeat non-conference opponents handily, something that happened regularly during the Bo Schembechler years. This behavior will give them confidence during the latter portion of the season.
Strengths: An offense that is as talented as anyone in the country. A massive offense line led by All-American Jake Long (6'7", 313 lbs). A veteran QB in senior Chad Henne and the best RB in the conference in Mike Hart to go along with a top notch-receiving corps that should allow them to light up the scoreboard. There's no question the talent is there and lady luck is also on their side with a favorable schedule.
Weakness: Not too many as some opponents would be hoping for, but youth of defense will certainly be a concern. Will this young team be able to find chemistry like some of the Michigan teams from the past? That being said, the biggest weakness might be in the special teams department with kicker Garrett Rivas graduating as the all-time leader in field goals made.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 15 vs. Notre Dame. Michigan is 19-1 when playing non-conference game at the Big House, with their only loss coming in 2005 to Notre Dame. This will be the third straight home game to open the season for Michigan and they will be facing an Irish team that lost most of their playmakers to graduation. Notre Dame has two tough games before that, facing Georgia Tech at home and then traveling to Penn State. I don't think I am out of line saying this Irish team could be 0-2 heading into Ann Arbor.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov. 10 at Wisconsin. Michigan should come into this game undefeated facing a Badgers team that already has suffered a couple losses. This will be the last home game for Wisconsin and the crowd will be alive and determined to spoil the Wolverines season. This is definitely worth circling on your calendar.
Final Comment: If this team stays healthy, the defense responds, and the conservative Coach Carr opens up the offense, this squad has a chance to be playing for the National Championship.
Penn State Nittany Lions 6-2 (10-2)
This could be the real sleeper team in the Big Ten and in the country, for that matter. One major publication ranks them as high as No. 10 in the country, while others leave them outside the Top 25 altogether. A tough schedule does concern me, as they have to face Michigan on the road and then travel to Champaign to face a much-improved Illini team. That being said, they do have Notre Dame, Iowa, Ohio State and Wisconsin at Happy Valley.
Strengths: The offense should be in good hands with senior QB Anthony Morelli and the best receiving corps in the Big Ten. Paterno has always been known for fielding a strong defense and this year will be no exception. This team returns all of their receivers and one can expect a dominating spread offense similar to the success they had under Michael Robinson.
Weakness: As I look over this squad the running game is definitely a concern with fifth year senior Austin Scott being their best option. He only made the scout team last year and will need to step up, as Paterno likes to control the clock. Another major concern may be the defensive line, as it was hit hard through graduation. This year's group may be bigger but won't be as athletic.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 8 vs. Notre Dame. This will be a big revenge game for Penn State as they were crushed last year 41-17. However, as a roadster they were outgained by only 14 yards. The Irish took advantage of a young secondary by completing 25-of-36 attempts for 287 yards. Brady Quinn has moved east to play for the Cleveland Browns and the Irish lived and died on his arm the last couple of years. This will be the second of three tough games to open the season for the Irish as they open against Georgia Tech then travel to Michigan after this affair.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 29 at Illinois. The Lions will be on the road for the second straight week, traveling west after playing Michigan in the previous week. The Illini have a solid QB in Juice Williams and they outgained the Lions last year 358-184, despite suffering a 26-12 setback. They will be installed as a favorite here, and I would not be surprised if they lost straight up. You heard it hear first!
Final Comment: The team will go as far as its running game will take them and the offensive line must improve. The defense will be outstanding, especially if the d-line rises to the challenge. If they can beat Michigan on Sept. 22, they could be on their way to Pasadena.
Iowa Hawkeyes 5-3 (9-3)
The Hawks started the 2006 season with a bang, going 4-0 before facing No. 1 Ohio State at home. But things quickly went downhill after the Buckeyes crushed them. QB Drew Tate seemed to throw in the towel after that game. He was often injured and tried to win games by himself, something he was able to do regularly in 2004 and 2005. Tate graduated and should be replaced by Jake Christensen. The sophomore has little playing experience but has a good bloodline as his father played in the NFL. The offense should be much improved and will finally feature a running attack, something they have lacked through the Drew Tate era. Their defense is also rock solid as they return eight starters from last season. Lady Luck is also on their side, as the two conference teams they do not have to play are Michigan and Ohio State. How is that possible?
Strengths: There's no question this defense should give opposing teams headaches, as the front four all return. Linebackers are also solid as senior Mike Klinkerborg, a second-team performer in 2006, leads the unit. This squad should win all four of their non-conference games with three of them taking place at the start of the season. Then they must travel to Wisconsin, which will be a big test for both teams and may tell the story of just how good this squad actually is.
Weakness: The core of their departed starters come in the defensive backfield with the graduation of Merrick and Paschal. The offensive line will have to grow up fast as they lost three of five starters from the 2006 squad. The first half of the Big Ten season is brutal as they face Wisconsin and Penn State in two of the first three conference games with both coming on the road.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 15 at Iowa State. Would have to believe this will be a low number because of the recent success the Cyclones have had in this game. However, the talent gap has widened and I see nothing but a rout by the Hawkeyes.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 22 at Wisconsin. Coming off a big in-state rival, one has to wonder how this young team will be able to get up two weeks in a row. After a weak non-conference schedule Wisconsin will be able to focus on this first real test. Iowa has won four of the last five, but the only Badgers win came with Bielema on the sidelines. Taking the under here may be the real call.
Final Comment: The Hawks quit last season and one would figure Coach Ferentz is determined to get this team back to its winning ways. If QB Christensen and the offensive line can produce, this team has a chance to win the Big Ten, especially with a favorable schedule. Unfortunately, their two toughest games come in the first three weeks of conference play and by that point we may find the Hawkeyes at the bottom looking up in the Big Ten standings.
Ohio State Buckeyes 5-3 (9-3)
Nobody ever seems to panic in Columbus when the Buckeyes lose heavy due to graduation, as everyone just assumes they will reload. This is the one year that I question that train of thought. Gone is Heisman winner Troy Smith and WR Ted Ginn. If that alone is enough to cause doubt also leaving early for the draft were RB Pittman and WR Gonzalez. The schedule was kind to them to open this season with their toughest tests coming at Purdue and at Washington for the first eight games. Both of these games are winnable, but the last four games are brutal featuring Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan. The defense should play a major part in how far this team will go, as they were a major surprise in the success of the 2006 season.
Strengths: Offensive line should be one of the Buckeyes strengths for 2007. Both left tackle (Alex Boone, 6'8", 325) and right tackle (Kirk Barton, 6'6", 310) return and should be able to clear paths for RB Chris Wells. As we all know, running backs in Columbus start with 1,000 yards per season.
Weakness: Very talented but very young along the defensive line. The Buckeyes lost all three starters up front from 2006. They must also replace the Heisman Trophy winner and that is never easy to do unless you are USC. As of this writing Todd Boeckman appears to be the front-runner.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov. 3 vs. Wisconsin. These two teams have not met since 2004 and the young Buckeyes should have ironed out some of their kinks by then. Wisconsin has won the last three games at the Horseshoe and this is something Coach Tressel will make his team aware of. Wisconsin should be coming off two straight home victories and thus the line will be kept low.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 27 at Penn State. The Nittany Lions will be out for revenge after last year's 28-6 defeat. The game was close early but two late pick-six plays allowed this game to get out of hand. Look for the Penn State defense to put pressure on the youngsters and a field goal line will not be enough for the Buckeyes to keep this one close.
Final Comment: Experts around the country feel this team will once again be vying for a National Title, but this writer cannot see that coming to fruition. They have an easy schedule to open but I think they will trip up at either Minnesota (Sept. 29) or Purdue (Oct. 6). This is a rebuilding year for Buckeyes, as they lost too much talent.
Purdue Boilermakers 5-3 (9-3)
I must admit this team has burned me more than any team in the Big Ten the past few years. Each year it looks like the team will play to their potential, only to see it come apart midway through the season. Trapped again? We will see, as Purdue return one of the top nucleuses along with their complete coaching staff. Five new coaches had to be replaced in 2006 and thus the team struggled with consistency.
The offense has one of the top two quarterbacks in the league with Curtis Painter under center for the second straight year. He goes along nicely with exceptional receivers and two big running backs in Sheets and Taylor. The offensive line is intact and the defense returns nine starters.
Strengths: No question it's the offense under QB Painter that will be able to spread teams out and score at will. The defense should be much better in 2006 and open with three soft opponents allowing them to gain confidence.
Weakness: The kicking game was a big negative in 2006, as freshman Chris Summers missed 12-of-20 field goals. That being said their biggest deficiency may be the schedule itself. After four winnable games to open the season, the next four are Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa. This could spell trouble, but three of those four are at Ross-Aide Stadium. If they can survive that, they will surely not survive a road trip to State College.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 29 vs. Notre Dame. Big revenge game with the Boilers after getting beat 35-21 last year in a game that was not as close as the score would indicate. Notre Dame is coming off four difficult games to open the season against Georgia Tech, Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State. This may be too much for them to handle, especially since Tiller is 24-2 in September home games.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 13 at Michigan. These two teams have not met since 2004 and it is hard to imagine Purdue can get up for three straight games after playing Notre Dame and Ohio State. Expect Michigan to keep rolling up on opponents.
Final Comment: This team will go as far as QB Painter can take them, but like most Purdue teams, the real key lies in the defense. Another mediocre defense means a mediocre season.
Wisconsin Badgers 5-3 (9-3)
The big question in Badger land is whether Coach Bret Bielema can get past the sophomore jinx. The offensive line could be very good to create holes for proven RB P.J. Hill and Paul Chryst continues to show that he is an offensive innovator. The defensive line was hit hard by graduation, but solid linebackers should be able to cover up that deficiency. Can this team repeat its 12-1 season? If nothing else Nov. 3 and Nov. 10 tell me no as they must face Ohio State and Michigan in consecutive weeks.
Strengths: O.C. Paul Chryst may be the real strength of this team. A mastermind at picking apart defenses, this team will run the table during another weak non-conference schedule and this should allow the team to gain confidence. The defense could be better then last year, creating a real problem for opponents.
Weakness: The biggest problem may be at the quarterback position, with veteran Tyler Donovan taking over for John Stocco. His protection will not be as good either, with LT Joe Thomas moving onto the Cleveland Browns. The Big Ten schedule gets a lot tougher as well as they play Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State and they do not play Northwestern or Purdue.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov. 10 vs. Michigan. The Badgers have always played the Wolverines tough at Camp Randall. They will be catching Michigan at the right time as they are coming off their in-state rival Michigan State. Michigan should be undefeated and the Badgers will be pumped for their last home game of the season.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 6 at Illinois. There's a real good chance Wisconsin will be 5-0 going into this road game in Champaign. The Badgers will be the favorite, but the Juice picked them apart last season and should be ready to give them all they can handle yet again.
Final Comment: If the QB play is outstanding and RB Hill stays healthy this team could have another outstanding year. The Big Ten road schedule is brutal, I would be surprised if they do not lose two of their four conference road games. A good season, but certainly not 12-1!
Illinois Fighting Illini 4-4 (7-5)
I said this last year, but I look for this team to be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten. For Coach Ron Zook it's a must, as he has gone 4-19 the last two years, but his recruits are now starting to come of age. Much of the season will ride on the health of Juice Williams, a standout quarterback who dazzled last year as only a freshman. The RB battle will be between a pair of brothers in Rashard and Walther Mendenhall, with Rashard running for 653 yards last season. But the defense will once again tell the story, as they must improve upon their points allowed. In 2005 they allowed 39.5 points per game and 469 yards per game, but they did trim that to only 26.6 and 310 yards per game in 2006. With nine starters returning, they should be able to get that down to the low twenties. They open the season with a neutral site game in St. Louis against Missouri and this could be a good indication of how their season will go.
Strengths: No question with a year under his belt, the Juice is loose and should give defenses fits with his arm and his legs. With experience back on defense, the front seven should be able to contain teams and avoid giving up the big plays.
Weakness: The receiving corps is the big question with this offense. As we know, successful college teams must be able to beat you with the pass to spread out defenses, but the Illini will need strong play from incoming freshman Arrelious Benn. But after him, the talent is poor and former starters McPherson and Ellis have been kicked off the tams for burglary.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 15 at Syracuse. A must road win for the Illini, as they will have revenge on their mind after suffering a 10-point setback in Champaign last year. Illini is 9-2 all-time and the Orange have not been the same since letting longtime Coach Paul Pasqualoni go. Syracuse will be coming off a tough road game in Iowa City and the Illini will be coming off Western Illinois.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov. 3 at Minnesota. The Gophers have owned this series of late inside the dome, as Illinois has not won in the Twin Cities since 1994. Expect a low scoring game, as they have only reached double digits just once in the last six meetings.
Final Comment: This team will live and die based on the play of QB Williams and it is really important that they win the opener in order to set the tone for a successful season. I look for this team to be bowling.
Michigan State Spartans 2-6 (3-7)
Gone is John L. Smith and a new era is born with Mark Dantonio, the former Cincinnati head coach who has also worked at Ohio State. While with the Buckeyes, he coached outstanding teams including the 2002 National Champions. That being said, he has some mental blocks to overcome, as past Spartan teams have folded after encouraging starts to the season. A perfect example of this was their game against Notre Dame last season in which they blew a 20-point lead and lost by a field goal. Even the announcers knew this was going to happen, as this program needs discipline, something it has lacked under past regimes. The schedule is brutal with all five road games coming against Top 20 talent, but this team has talent and a hot start could make this a hot ticket to bet all season via the pointspread.
Strengths: The program needed a change and Dantonio is the answer. Their secondary may be as good as anyone in the country and the kicking game is solid with Swenson.
Weakness: This team is talented, but unproven with a thin defensive line. Several players will be back from injury but the quarterback position is shaky with Hoyer taking over the reigns from lifer Drew Stanton.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 1 vs. UAB. Never like to lay big numbers in openers. However, the Spartans need to set the tone under new leadership. The Blazers also have a new coach and lost heavy to graduation the past few years. Homer gets the call here in a rout back to respectability.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov. 10 at Purdue. The Spartans will have likely succumb to a brutal schedule by this point and their three preceding games are Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan, likely all losses. Purdue has won seven of the last eight games played in West Lafayette between these programs.
Final Comment: Dantonio will need a couple of years to get this program back. Look for them to pull a few upsets, but the schedule is too tough for them to go bowling.
Northwestern Wildcats 2-6 (6-6)
The Wildcats won only four games in 2006, yet under the circumstances it might have been a successful season. Coach Randy Walker unexpectedly passed away and former standout player Pat Fitzgerald took over the reigns. This team has big question marks, as they could not stop anybody last season and QB Bachler threw just six touchdown passes last year. The offensive line should be better in 2007 and thus so should Backler's stats.
Strengths: Nothing really stands out, but RB Sutton is the only playmaker this offense has. He went for over 1,000 yards in 2006 and should repeat that in 2007. Their non-conference schedule is easy, as all four games are winnable and they do not play Penn State or Wisconsin.
Weakness: QB is a big concern and there is no guarantee CJ Bacher will be able to hold onto his job. The linebackers will be young and the loss of Roach and Eaton should allow good teams to light it up on them.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 29 vs. Michigan. A great chance to catch the Wolverines sleeping after they played Notre Dame and Penn State the two previous weeks. This will be the first road game for the Wolverines and as a big favorite the Cats will earn the cover.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 6 at Michigan State. The Cats will be coming off two Big Ten losses and will be playing a Spartan team desperate for a win.
Final Comment: With a weak non-conference schedule and a couple of winnable conference home games, this team has a good shot at a bowl bid. Home games against Minnesota and Indiana should determine their fate.
Minnesota Golden Gophers 2-6 (5-7)
Yet another team with a coaching change after Glen Mason was abruptly fired after blowing a huge lead in the Insight Bowl last season against Texas Tech. In comes Tim Brewster, who has no head coaching experience prior to taking over the Gophers. In fact, he has not had any coordinator experience as well, but did serve under Mack Brown and Mike Shanahan, so the pedigree is there to be successful. The QB position is up in the air after Bryan Cupito graduated and in fact the coaches' son Clint Brewster may be in the mix. Reports are that Brewster has been well accepted by the Twin Cities and actually has fans excited about attending games at the Metrodome.
Strengths: The Gophers have always been known for a strong running game and with three lineman returning, gifted RB Amir Pinnix should find plenty of holes and improve upon his 1,300 yards last season. The defense returns nine starters and should be able to slow down high-powered offenses.
Weakness: No question it's the quarterback position and whoever gets the call must have a good season in order to take pressure off of Pinnix. The receiving corps was also hit hard by graduation with Payne and Spaeth gone and Decker and Wheelwright must fill their shoes.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Nov 3 vs. Illinois. This is the homecoming game and Illinois is the alma mater of HC Brewster and much of his coaching staff. He will want to make a statement and Minnesota has won six of the last seven meetings between the programs.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 6 at Illinois. The Hoosiers remember the pounding they took last year against the Gophers, losing 63-26. Minny will be coming off a big game against Ohio State and poised for a letdown.
Final Comment: I see this Gopher team winning just two conference games, but if the quarterback play steps up and Coach Brewster gives this team an attitude that number could improve. Pick your spots against the spread because they will have moments of success.
Indiana Hoosiers 1-7 (4-8)
A sad story for Indiana, as they find themselves in a similar situation as Northwestern did last season. With the passing of Coach Terry Hoeppner, OC Bill Lynch has taken over the program as head coach. Hoeppner was well respected around the country and actually liked being in Indiana and I believe he would have moved this team up the ladder. That being said, Lynch has coaching experience at Ball State and they return Kellen Lewis, who led the team in rushing and passing last season.
Strengths: The offensive line returns four starters and this should give time for Lewis to throw and also create holes for RB Marcus Thigpen. The D-line returns three of their front four. However, they were ranked 102nd in the country against the run and 109th overall, so they need to show some veteran improvement.
Weakness: Defense, Defense, Defense. This unit was terrible last season and could not stop big plays from occurring. The secondary lacks Big Ten talent and will continue to be a problem for the 2007 squad.
Favorable Game Against the Line: Oct. 6 vs. Minnesota. Big revenge game as they were pounded 63-26 in the Twin Cities in 2006. Gophers will be coming off a big game with the Buckeyes and will suffer a straight-up loss in this spot.
Non-Favorable Game Against the Line: Sept. 8 at Western Michigan. Revenge for Western Michigan and a rare road game for a Big Ten teams against a MAC squad. The Broncos lost by 19 points last season but did go bowling and should knockout the heavyweight conference team at Waldo Stadium.
Final Comment: With 16 starters back one would think things would have to improve but that will not be the case. The defense lacks talent and the offense lacks any depth. It's possible they could win all four non-conference games, but it will be hard to muster anything during conference play. They do not play Michigan or Ohio State though, so they do have that going for them.
It should be an exciting year for Doc's Sports as we embark upon our 36th season of handicapping football. NFL Preseason picks are now available and the first college selections will be released on Thursday Aug. 30, 2007. To purchase these selections sign-up for one of our many football packages, all of which come with a guarantee.
Best of luck this season,
Doc