2007 Big East Conference Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 07/25/2007
The Big East Conference tried to take a gigantic step forward in national credibility last year, but in the end they just couldn't quite succeed. Really, the problem was that the top three teams all got in each other's way. Louisville beat West Virginia, West Virginia knocked off Rutgers and Rutgers upset Louisville. If one of those games had gone the other way, then the Big East, the poor sister of the major conferences, would have been a major player on the national championship stage. As it was, the conference gained some believers when Louisville handled Wake Forest easily in the Orange Bowl, though the positive impact would have been larger if a more respected opponent than Wake Forest had been the winner of the ACC.
Those same three teams should be fairly competitive again this year, and there is a chance that South Florida will take a leap forward to challenge the forerunners in the conference. That might be a bit of a stretch, but it's even more unlikely that any of the other four teams in the relatively small conference will be competitive at the highest level.
Team on the rise:
South Florida. Quarterback Matt Grothe was more than solid as a freshman last season, completing 64 percent of his passes for 2,600 yards, and the has a foundation of talent to build on that. Combine that with a defense that is solid, and outstanding at the corners, and you have a team ready to take a step forward. The Bulls won nine games last year, including the PapaJohns.com bowl, so we aren't likely to see a huge gain in wins. The difference in this team could be that they start to win the games against top competition. Last year, with the exception of a shocking upset of West Virginia, the Bulls were competitive against the best teams on their schedule, but they failed to capitalize on opportunities.
Team on the decline:
Syracuse. Up until the end of September last season, the Orange were a decent team. They were 3-2, and had won three in a row. But then the bottom fell out. The defense allowed too many points last year, and they are likely to have the same problem again this season. The offense doesn't have the firepower to overcome the hole they consistently find themselves in. Andrew Robinson returns as QB, but he led an offense that was only the 102nd best in the country, and his tools are not any shinier this year. Head coach Greg Robinson left Texas two years ago to take this job. He must regret that decision every day. The only bright spot last year is that, as bad as they were, the public thought that they were worse - despite being 4-8 they were 8-4 ATS.
Treading water (hasn't done much to improve):
Pittsburgh. Dave Wannstedt hasn't done enough in the first two years to prove that he can handle the transition from the pros to college. He's managed to put together solid recruiting classes, but he has not turned that talent into wins. He's just 11-12 in two seasons, and something in the order of 6-6 seems likely again this season. As an offense, the Panthers have failed to establish either a solid running game or a truly great passing game. On defense they sacrifice too many points, and that was with the highly touted new pro corner Darrelle Revis on the field. There are questions at quarterback and other key positions, and it's hard to get very excited about this squad.
Money player (player to bet on):
Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville. Brohm deserves support if only because he made the unexpected decision to come back for his senior season and give up a likely first round selection in the draft. He struggled with injuries last year, but he has shown that, when healthy, he has the potential to be one of the best players taking snaps in the country. He loses running back Michael Bush, a friend and deadly weapon that is now with the Raiders, but the team has the depth to support him and help him put up some gaudy, and potentially award-worthy numbers.
Bankroll buster (player to avoid betting on):
Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers. Rice may ultimately prove me wrong here, but I am concerned about him. He put up huge numbers last year (1,800 yards and 20 TDs), but he also carried the ball 335 times. That's a lot of abuse, and you have to question his ability to hold up under that strain again. It's not like he will get to let up this year - Brian Leonard is gone to the NFL and the second running back, sophomore Kordell Young, appears talented but has little experience, and QB Mike Teel is a serviceable quarterback, but one that must rely heavily on a pounding running game if the team wants to have any success. Maybe I'm a pessimist, but those all seem like the ingredients for a disappointing season to me.
Important betting trends:
Pitt, UConn and Syracuse combined for 14 wins, but just four in conference. They feasted on weak non-conference schedules to make their records deceptively fat early in the season. The same could happen again in all three cases this year, so bettors should beware.
Potential conference champ:
Louisville. Though West Virginia returns the potent one-two punch of Steve Slaton and Pat White, I have to lean towards the Cardinals as long as Brohm can stay healthy this season. It comes down, in my mind, to the West Virginia pass defense. It was virtually non-existent last year. They have improved it some, but the Cardinals' passing game will also be improved.
Key matchups:
South Florida at Auburn, Sept. 8. If the Bulls can keep this one close, or find a way to win, then we will know that we have another team to take seriously.
Louisville at West Virginia, Nov. 8. With luck, this could be a replay of last year - two undefeated teams proving who is better.
Predicted order of finish:
Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers, South Florida, Pitt, Cincinnati, UConn, Syracuse.