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2024 Big 12 Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 3/11/2024

Big 12 Tournament predictions Jamal Shead Houston Cougars

For the past two decades, this has always been one of the easiest conference tournaments to preview.

Just pick Kansas.

The Jayhawks, who at one point won 14 straight regular season conference championships, have cut down the nets at the conference tournament nine times since 2006. They’ve lost in the finals three more times, including last year to Texas, and have dominated the Big 12 tournament since its inception in 1997.

However, Kansas is suffering through one of its worst league campaigns in decades. Their eight regular season losses were the school’s most since 1988-89 and the Jayhawks will head to Kansas City with their lowest seed ever (No. 6).

Oh, and if things weren’t bad enough, they may be without their two best players, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar, due to injury.

So, with Kansas a non-factor, who will cut down the nets?

The 2023 Big 12 Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 12 and will be held at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO. Here is Doc’s Sports Big 12 Tournament preview and predictions:

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The Favorite: Houston (-135)

A lot of people, me included, were interested to see how Houston would fare in its first season in the Big 12 after nearly a decade of dominance in the feeble American Athletic. The Cougars, currently the No. 1 team in the country, dominated the best conference in the land, going 15-3 in league play and capping their regular season title with a 76-46 thrashing of Kansas. The three-guard set of L.J. Cryer, Jamal Shead and Emanuel Sharp is one of the best two-way backcourts in the nation. The Cougars are the No. 1 defensive team in the country, allowing just 56.9 points per game, and they simply choke the life out of opponents on defense while leaning on an offense built on efficiency (and offensive rebounding).

The Contender: Iowa State (+350)

Like Houston, Iowa State is built on defense. They are No. 5 in the country in points allowed (62.1) and in the Top 25 in field goal defense. And like the Cougars, the Cyclones also lean on a talented backcourt and a short bench. Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey combine for 26 points, nine rebounds and nine assists per game and are the engine that makes this team go. Iowa State is one of the few teams to beat Houston this year so they are capable of anything. However, five of their last 12 wins have come by five points or fewer. And Iowa State is just 6-7 on the road and neutral sites this season compared to 18-0 at home. This team must prove it can win without Hilton Magic.

The Sleeper: Baylor (+650)

Houston and Iowa State do it with defense. Baylor does it with scoring. The Bears are in the Top 25 in points per game (81.5), field goal shooting (48.9 percent) and are No. 7 in the country in three points shooting (39.8). Baylor has six double-figure scorers and can hammer away at teams inside and out. The Bears are just 8-7 in their last 15 games. But three of their losses – including an 82-76 decision against Houston on Feb. 24 – have come in overtime. The Bears beat Iowa State, a potential semifinal opponent, in the only meeting and Baylor has the benefit of an easier draw than either of the other two top seeds.

The Spoiler: Texas (+3300)

The honeymoon is over for Rodney Terry. Terry earned the head coaching gig in Austin after his steady leadership guided the Longhorns to last year’s Big 12 tournament title and then a run to the Elite Eight. The Longhorns have been mediocre in his sophomore offering, stumbling down to the No. 7 seed in this tournament. Texas is just 2-7 against the top five seeds the Big 12 this season. That doesn’t mean they aren’t dangerous, though. Texas is No. 4 in the nation in terms of experience, with a load of super seniors dialing it up for a final postseason. They also face an Iowa State team in the quarterfinals that has proven very beatable outside its home arena. A win there would yield a likely matchup with a Baylor team that plays the run-and-gun style that Texas prefers. A run to the finals by the defending champs is not out of the question.

Early Round Matchup To Watch:

No. 8 TCU (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (2:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 13)

This game will take on added significance because the loser will have zero shot at making the NCAA Tournament field. Both teams are 20-11 and both have been terrible down the stretch, with Oklahoma bumbling to a 2-5 mark down the stretch while TCU is just 2-4 after a disastrous loss to Central Florida in its final home game. The Horned Frogs won the only meeting this year, 80-71, but that one was played in Fort Worth. TCU has won four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Horned Frogs also have a big edge in experience, with five senior starters and three fifth-year seniors leading the way.

2024 Big 12 Conference Tournament Predictions: The Big 12 has been the deepest, most competitive league in the country (again) this season. As a result, we shouldn’t be surprised by a dark horse team cutting down the nets on Saturday. Baylor and Houston seem to have the easiest paths to the semifinals – I could see either Texas Tech or Iowa State getting bumped off early – and I will be surprised if one or both don’t make the finals.

Kansas has ruled the Big 12 for a long time. It looks like there is a new bully on the block, though, and I think Houston will cut down the nets this weekend.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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