2024 Big 12 Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

by Robert Ferringo - 8/28/2024

Big 12 football predictions Josh Hoover TCU Horned Frogs

“Your guess is as good as ours.”

I think that’s the clear message that the oddsmakers are sending with the odds to win the Big 12 football championship this year.

The Big 12, like the rest of college football, has undergone a sea change in terms of conference alignment. While the Big Ten poached several of the big-market West Coast programs, the Big 12 absorbed the other Mormon Twin (Utah), welcomed back prodigal stepson Colorado, and took in Arizona and Arizona State (for reasons mainly having to do with basketball and desperation).

This expansion came just one year after the Big 12 tacked on some of the top teams from the American Athletic Conference.

The result – for now – is that the 2024 Big 12 will be one of the most parity-driven leagues in college football. There is no clear powerhouse program and no obviously dominant team heading into the campaign. That should make this one of the wildest, most unpredictable leagues for college football handicappers and bettors daring enough to get involved in it.

Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.

Here is my 2024 Big 12 Conference preview and predictions:

The Favorite: Utah (+275)

Yes, it is strange that the favorite to win the Big 12 this year wasn’t even in the Big 12 last year. Utah is getting the benefit of the doubt as a “powerhouse” after cracking the Top 10 in four of the past five seasons. These odds suggest that 25-year-old quarterback Cameron Rising, whose college career began at Texas in 2018, will return to form after a knee injury cost him the 2023 campaign. Without Rising, the Utes were No. 117 in passing offense and No. 98 in scoring last year. They dropped from an average of 36.1 points per game in 2021 and 38.6 PPG in 2022 to a moribund 23.2 per game last year. If Rising can get the attack back over 30 points per game, then Utah’s defense, which was in the Top 20 in scoring and yards allowed, has nine starters back and could dominate again. Utah does have to play a key game against Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Sept. 21. The winner of that game should have pole position for the league race.

The Contender: Kansas State (+350)

Chris Klieman can coach. He’s won 19 combined games the past two seasons, including the 2022 Big 12 Championship. Klieman has also been one of the best bets in college football in his five years in Manhattan, going 41-22 against the spread. Klieman just gets the job done and is obviously a master at surpassing expectations. It’s going to take a lot for him to do it again this year. I am not as high on the Wildcats as a lot of people. They were ranked No. 2 in the preseason Big 12 polls and are expected to be in the mix. K-State was No. 10 in the country in scoring last year and No. 26 in points allowed, outscoring foes by 16.1 points per game. Some of that was a favorable schedule, and I think they are going to miss quarterback Will Howard. It’s tough to bet against Klieman. But something tells me that K-State is going to underachieve this fall.

The Dark Horse: Oklahoma State (+800)

Mike Gundy is a goof and a weird dude. He knows how to win, though, and last year’s 10-4 mark was the second double-digit winning season in the last three years for the Cowboys. The focus of this team is on the nation’s top running back, Ollie Gordon. He banged out 1,700 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns last year. And despite an offseason DUI incident, Gordon comes into the fall as a Heisman candidate and one of the most important players in the conference. Oklahoma State’s defense was a sieve last year, finishing No. 123 in pass defense and No. 122 in total defense. I know they made the Big 12 title game last year despite that grotesque stop unit. But if they don’t make some major strides on that side of the ball, I don’t see how they can be a threat to win this league this season.

The X-Factors: Iowa State (+900)

I’m bullish on the Cyclones this year. Matt Campbell is another really underrated coach that does his best work when expectations are lowest. Campbell might also have his best roster since Brock Purdy and Breece Hall left Ames. Iowa State has one of the most experienced teams in the country. They retained nearly 90 percent of their total offensive yardage and 83 percent of their tackles from last season and have 19 starters back. Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht showed some serious glimpses last fall. If he takes another step forward, then watch out. Iowa State’s biggest obstacle is its schedule, with games at Iowa, West Virginia, Kansas and Utah on the docket. They are always tough in Ames, though, going 27-12 straight up over the last six years.

Central Florida (+800)

Guz Malzahn’s squad doesn’t have the juice to win the Big 12. But I see them playing a role in which team does claim the crown. Central Florida was a lot more competitive in the Big 12 last year than their 3-6 conference mark suggests. They lost three games to Baylor, at Oklahoma and at Texas Tech by a combined four points. UCF should get improved quarterback play from Arkansas transfer K.J. Jefferson. If that’s the case, then Malzahn should have his best offense in his four seasons at the helm in Orlando. There’s a good chance that, much like last year, UCF’s final record might not reflect how tough this team is. Don’t be surprised if they pull a major upset (or two).

The Disappointments: Kansas (+1000)

I really like Kansas. Anyone that has used my service the last two seasons knows that I have been on the bandwagon and have cashed plenty of tickets with the Jayhawks. I’m a big fan of Lance Leipold’s, and I think that Jalon Daniels is an absolute stud (when he’s healthy). However, I think the public and the media have caught up with this group. And after going 18-8 ATS the last two seasons, I think a lot of value with this group is gone. Kansas is going to score. They were in the Top 5 in the nation in yardage, passing and scoring last year. Getting stops is still an issue. And it is tough for all-offense/no-defense favorites to cover spreads. A third straight bowl game – something that has never happened in over 120 years of Kansas football – shouldn’t be a disappointment. I think it might be, though, for a team with championship (and playoff) hopes.

Colorado (+2500)

I’m not going to waste a ton of time on these guys. Colorado has been one of the most overhyped, over-discussed programs in college football over the last 12 months. I think Deion Sanders is a chump, I think that Shadeur Sanders is overrated, and I don’t think this group is going to be appreciably better than the crew that went 4-8 last year. They can blame the offensive line all they want. But offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur is an all-time loser, and Colorado hasn’t done enough to beef up a laughable defense that was No. 121 in points allowed and No. 127 in total defense last season. I think the Buffs will go down in flames again.

The Undervalued: Cincinnati (+8000)

A maelstrom of events combined last year to help the Bearcats have their worst season this century. A bunch of their best players graduated from the 2022 team. There was a coaching change that spurred a mass of transfers. And the Bearcats were stepping way up in class from the AAC to the Big 12. A tough schedule. Bad turnover luck and poor red zone execution. Close losses. You name it, and Cincinnati dealt with it in 2023. I don’t expect them to stay down for long. Cincinnati was No. 5 in the country in rushing offense and No. 33 in total yardage last year. Most of the primary components are back and if Cincinnati’s defense improves they will be an upset waiting to happen.

The Rest:

West Virginia (+1800)

Neal Brown went from the hot seat to the hype seat in just one season. Brown led a gritty-as-hell West Virginia team to nine wins last year, including a bowl blowout of North Carolina. Quarterback Garrett Greene was a revelation and is a potential Big 12 POTY. WVU has its top two rushers and five offensive linemen back from the sport’s No. 3 rushing attack. Greene also has six of his top seven targets back, and this offense will cause opponents some problems. Can they hold up on defense, especially in the secondary? Like so many Big 12 squads, the answer there will tell the tale for WVU’s season.

Arizona (+1400)

Arizona was one of the biggest surprises in the country last year. They went 10-3 straight up, 11-2 against the spread, won their first bowl game in nearly a decade, and finished in the Top 15 for just the second time ever. Arizona retained sharp quarterback Noah Fifita and hero wideout Tetairoa McMillan, so things should be looking up. However, last year’s head coach, Jedd Fisch, bolted for the open Washington job. If things were set up well at Arizona – and with the pieces he had back – then I think Fisch would’ve stayed. So I’m not high on this group heading into 2024. They have 14 starters back. But they have a new head coach, new offensive and defensive systems, and are playing in an unfamiliar league. Early season road trips to Kansas State, Utah and BYU could also take some of the wind out of Arizona’s sails.

Texas Tech (+1500)

Texas Tech has been a slow starter and a big finisher under third-year head coach Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders closed 2022 with four straight wins to get to 8-5 and last year won four of their last five to reach 7-6. This year they have four of their first five games in Lubbock. So, the Red Raiders will be expected to get off to a stronger start this time around. Texas Tech has just seven starters back from last season but did import a lot of experience through the transfer portal. The key will be the offensive line. If their four new starters click, then Tech has its starting quarterback and two top running backs. McGuire is 5-1 in games decided by four points or less the last two years and will need to keep that late game luck going.

TCU (+1800)

Sonny Dykes and the Horned Frogs suffered through a brutal hangover season after their dreamy 13-2, national runner-up season in 2022. A drop-off was predictable. But now what? TCU has gone 5-7, 6-4, 5-7, 13-2 and 5-7 the last five years. Is there upside on this roster? A lot of that will come down to the maturation of redshirt sophomore quarterback Josh Hoover. He was adequate last season and showed enough for Chandler Morris to transfer out. TCU was No. 7 in the nation in passing offense and has some pieces back. This team won’t crack .500 without massive defensive improvements, though. And that is going to come down to whatever instant impact new coordinator Andy Avalos and several transfers can have on that side of the ball. And I mean “instant impact”; TCU faces high-scoring offenses like SMU and Kansas all before the end of September.

Baylor (+6000)

The Bears were a team with a lot of preseason buzz last year. They flopped, big-time, going 3-9 both straight up and against the spread. Dave Aranda has had an erratic tenure in Waco and really needs a big season. He is leaning on new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and his up-tempo offensive attack to give the program a jolt. Three-year Toledo starter Dequan Finn is a major x-factor for this team, which has five of its top seven receivers, its top five rushers, and all five offensive starters back. Aranda has a defensive background. But his stop unit was pathetic last year, allowing 33.3 points per game and finishing outside the Top 110 in rushing and scoring defense. Baylor has a brutal road schedule this year. If they can upset either Utah or Iowa State, though, this team could be 5-1 heading into the teeth of league play.

Houston (+11000)

Willie Fritz continues his climb up the ladder, parlaying a very successful eight-year run at Tulane into this job with the Cougars. It’s going to take a minute for Fritz to get everything in place. He still runs a variation of the triple-option and does some quirky things defensively. Senior quarterback Donovan Smith is a nice dual-threat piece to build the running game around. But the offensive line needs a lot of work, and Fritz has only three returning defensive starters. Fritz has been a winner everywhere he’s been, and it’s only a matter of time. This may be a season where Houston takes a step back before taking a step forward.

Arizona State (+12000)

The Sun Devils have posted back-to-back 3-9 seasons, going 2-7 in Pac-12 play both times. Arizona State is still cleaning up the mess that Herm Edwards left the program, and second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham still has a lot of ground to make up. Twelve of ASU’s 18 losses the past two seasons have been by double-digits, and two of their six wins have come against FCS opponents (including a 24-21 win over Southern Utah last year as a 32-point favorite). ASU has a freshman quarterback and just seven starters back from a team that was outscored by 14 points per game last year. This may be the worst team in the league.

BYU (+12500)

After 12 years as an independent, BYU walked back into conference play last season. It didn’t go great. They lost their last five games – including tough losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State (in double-OT) – to finish 5-7 and miss a bowl game for just the third time in 20 years. Coach Kelani Sitake is in a bit of trouble. BYU has seen its win total drop three straight seasons (from 11 in 2020 to 10 to 8 to 5), and this year they aren’t packing one of their best rosters. BYU was No. 118 in total offense and No. 108 in total defense last season and was outscored by an average of nearly a touchdown per game. If they miss a bowl game again this year, then big changes could be on the horizon.

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2024 Big 12 Football Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Advice

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