2007 Big 12 Conference Preview
by Jordan Adams - 07/23/2007
For many years it was considered that the winner of the Red River Shootout, the annual Oklahoma/Texas rivalry, would dictate the conference race and go on to represent as the league champ in the BCS. While Texas will do everything to make sure they keep that trend alive, 2007 might be the year that others emerge as a top contender.
Last season six teams finished with at least eight victories, with the Oklahoma Sooners topping the South and the Nebraska Cornhuskers claiming the North. The Big 12 is one conference that lacks consistent parity as you wander deeper down the conference standings. Colorado, Iowa State and Baylor combined for just six league wins in 2006, but hopefully they will prove this fall that it was nothing more than an aberration.
The Longhorns will find themselves amongst the preseason Top 10, however Oklahoma cannot say the same. The Sooners will try and fill the larger than life shoes of 'All Day' Adrian Peterson. And on top of that, their quarterback issues speak even louder as they lack experience from nearly every arm on the depth chart.
Oct. 6 is when the Horns and Sooners will clash in Dallas, but the nation better be following how the rest of the conference handles their own business. The usually inferior North Division will still be second to the South, however Nebraska will sit atop that division thanks to one Sam Keller, a senior transfer quarterback from Arizona State that will transform the Cornhusker offense into an aerial onslaught.
Of course, the Longhorns and Sooners will eat up attention like no other in their respective state, but if you overlook the other up-and-comers, you'll miss some impressive team football. The Texas A&M Aggies have lots of promise, while Oklahoma State is an offensive juggernaut capable of scoring with the best in the country. Missouri, Kansas State and Texas Tech will also create their share of headlines.
Teams on the Rise:
Nebraska topped their division in Bill Callahan's third year as head coach. His fourth campaign with the program will easily be his best, as Sam Keller takes the reigns of an offense desperately needing a spark. His move from Arizona State paves the way for a more two-dimensional attack, while the Blackshirt defense will again prove to be stingy, Waiting in the wings, though, is a trip to Austin and a difficult non-conference schedule that includes Nevada, Wake Forest and the always dangerous Trojans from Southern Cal.
The K-State Wildcats saw immediate improvement with first year head coach Ron Prince last season, and again he'll take lead his team another step in the right direction. Marred in the middle of the conference, Kansas State will see no more than eight victories. However, another winning season will show consistency, and with sophomore sensation Josh Freeman at quarterback, that's a good look.
Teams on the Decline:
In terms of the number of wins, 2007 will be a down year for Oklahoma. Bob Stoops doesn't really have off years, he simply reloads. However, the graduation of Adrian Peterson and a number of key defenders will see their win total fall by one or two games. Let's not also forget about their quarterback quandary as I'm not sure what to expect from the underclassmen on the depth chart.
Of course the Colorado Buffaloes will have more wins than they did in their miserable season last year. However, while that increase in wins will suggest improvement, another losing year for Colorado is still a failure, especially for a Dan Hawkins team. The Buffs are extremely young, and while time might make for a more successful team, it is extremely important they get out from under the hole their buried themselves in 2006.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
Mike Leach's Texas Tech Red Raiders continue to churn out wins. But how long until their offensive firepower becomes a novelty act that can't produce more than a third of fourth place finish to earn a mediocre bowl invite? Sure, Texas Tech will rake in the points, but they also surrender more than enough to keep games competitive. Tech quarterback Graham Harrell and company will be able to outshoot most of the Big 12, but when it comes to Texas, OU, and a more talented Oklahoma State offense, all bets are off.
Another program that cannot shake the middleman role is the Kansas Jayhawks. Another underachieving season is most likely forthcoming, especially with their intra-state rival (the Kansas Wildcats) surpassing them for the moment. Mark Mangino knows how to coach, but talent is always the overriding factor and the 'Hawks simply don't have enough. They'll be a good bet against Toledo early in the year in a big revenge game from last season, not to mention they should be able to take care of the bottom feeders when it comes time.
Money Player (player to bet on):
If there is something circulating the water in Stillwater, Oklahoma, then quarterback Bobby Reid must have gulped some down prior to last season. The Cowboys do-it-all quarterback is just a junior, but don't tell that to the 6'3'', 235 lb specimen. Reid tallied 24 passing touchdowns a season ago and added 500 yards on the ground for his vaunted offense. He led a unit that was one of two offenses to average 200 yards passing and rushing in 2006. He again will create havoc in the backfield and put up well over 30 points a game for Oklahoma State this fall.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
Questions still arise in my mind about the quarterback A&M QB Stephen McGee. As a runner he is brilliant and he's truly a remarkable leader for only having two years under his belt. McGee threw for just 12 touchdowns last season, and knowing that the Aggies already have talented rushers in Jorvorksie Lane and Mike Goodson, how much does their quarterback need to carry the offense?
Important Betting Trends:
Last season the dominant South Division went 13-5 against the North, finishing them off in the conference title game as Oklahoma bested Nebraska, 21-7. 2007 should see the gap narrow, as Nebraska and Missouri make a strong run and reach at least nine win seasons. No doubt, the winner of the North will hold a strong conference record due to the weakness below them. However, the biggest question, as it always is, will be if that North representative can hold a candle to Texas or whoever comes out on the southern end when a BCS berth is on the line?
Potential Conference Champ:
After seeing Colt McCoy flourish as a freshman for the white and burnt orange, there are no worries coming from myself that Texas will play in another BSC bowl. The Horns return all their weapons for McCoy to use, while the Texas defense should again be one of the best and most lethal in the conference. Don't rule out feisty teams such as Nebraska and Missouri to meet Texas in the conference championship, but too much talent resides in Austin for them to falter in 2007.
Key Games:
Oklahoma at Texas, Oct. 6 - The Longhorns go for their third straight win in this glamorized series. Not good news for Sooner fans, as this one looks pretty one-sided as of July.
Texas A&M at Texas Tech, Oct. 13 - The Aggies and Red Raiders will look to make a statement, just in case Texas falls the week prior in their big game. The Aggies are just 3-9 in their last 12 in Lubbock, having lost every game since 1993.
Texas at Texas A&M, Nov. 23 - The Aggies shocked the world last season when they knocked off Texas in Austin. Two in a row would be quite an uppercut coming from the squad from College Station. Speed isn't the issue, it's more so the depth and overall ability that will get the 'Horns their revenge.
Predicted order of finish:
North Division: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas State, Kansas, Colorado, Iowa State
South Division: Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Baylor