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Betting the Super Bowl total is always a bit of a puzzle, and this year is no exception. The total opened at 55, but quickly fell to 53.5. That indicates at least an early public preference for the under. We don't just want to blindly follow the public opinion, though, so let's take a look at it for ourselves.

The Giants don't show a preference one way or the other - they went over nine times and under 10. What is striking, though, is that they have never faced a total this high - they only went as high as 48 on two different occasions. Of the five highest totals they faced, they only went over once, and that was in an 11-point loss to Dallas.

The Patriots were more successful at exceeding scoring expectations. They have gone over 11 times in 18 tries, and they pushed on another try. That means they only went under in a third of games. Surprisingly, though, the team only faced a total higher than the one for the Super Bowl twice despite having such a potent offense, and they were unable to cover either time. It's a further concern that they have gone under four times and pushed once in the last six games.

We have a recent matchup between the two teams, but that only serves to confuse us further. The total was only 46.5, but the teams could have gone over a much higher mark - 73 points were scored. That's the only game that New England has gone over in seven weeks, but it pretty much single-handedly explains the high total this time around.

Recent Super Bowls don't clarify the situation much, either. The last three games have gone under, but three of the four that came before that went over. The Patriots have only gone over once in their three recent visits to the Super Bowl, and it was against the lowest total they have faced. The total for this game is half a point higher than it was when the Pats faced the explosive Rams, so that gives you some idea of the respect this current team is held under. The posted total of 53.5 is actually the highest total ever for the Super Bowl. It has been close to that number twice, and both times it went over.

Over the last five games the Patriots have averaged 27.5 points per game, and haven't scored more than 38. The Giants have averaged 28.2 points over the same stretch, though they haven't exceeded that amount in their three playoff games. That means that the offenses would be able to exceed the total if they met or exceeded their recent averages, but there isn't a whole lot of breathing room.

So what does this all mean? I don't see both teams having offensive success on Sunday. On the other hand, I don't see a total defensive meltdown by either team. Given that, and given that this total seems high, I definitely find myself leaning under. Now I have a week to see if I can talk myself out of that stance.