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Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under 2024 with Expert Analysis

by Spencer Toth - 2/1/2024

Betting the Super Bowl over or under Justin Watson Kansas City Chiefs

There are countless bets available to place on the Super Bowl, but one of the easiest, and most profitable, can be the Over/Under. The spread and the total are the two most basic bets in football. And while ‘whether or not Andy Reid will be doused in BBQ sauce after the game’ can be a fun prop to fantasize about, most of your bankroll should be going on simpler bets, such as the total. The total this year is set at 47.5, and it has held strong at that number throughout the week. This is the lowest total in the last 8 years, as the oddsmakers are expecting a lower-than-average scoring affair on Sunday evening. Last year's 38-35 victory for the Chiefs snapped a streak of 4 straight Unders, including a 31-20 scoreline which finished Under the 53.5-point total when these two teams squared off in 2020. Including the postseason, the Chiefs are 4-16 to the Under at 47.5 points, while the 49ers are 7-12 to the Under.

There are two ways I see this game going, as whoever takes an early lead could go a long way in deciding where this total ends up.

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If the 49ers win…

The 49ers are in the Super Bowl thanks to their sheer dominance on both sides of the ball. They scored the third most points in the regular season, while allowing the 3rd fewest on defense. Brock Purdy has a plethora of weapons on offense, allowing him to nicely spread the ball and keep defenses honest. If Christian McCaffrey can get the run game going early, the Chiefs secondary could be forced to fill up the tackle box and go to one-on-one coverage down the field. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk will be licking their lips at the opportunity to battle for 50/50 balls over the top. And Purdy has shown that while he may not have the strongest arm, he is still capable of delivering accurate balls deep down the field.

The Chiefs secondary did a fantastic job at locking down the Ravens in the AFC Championship, as there were countless times Lamar Jackson had time to scramble out of the pocket and still found his receivers unable to get separation from their defenders. If the Chiefs can make Purdy uncomfortable, the options will be even slimmer, and Purdy will be forced into tough throws or short checkdowns.

I believe the secret to a 49ers victory is with the run game. Christian McCaffrey will be called upon early and often. And when the 49ers are facing 2nd-and-5’s instead of 2nd-and-9’s, the playbook will be wide open. Kyle Shanahan is in full control of the 49ers offense with the OC position remaining vacant, and he will be confident he can dial up plays to unlock the Kansas City defense. When the 49ers get the Chiefs more concerned about stopping runs up the gut rather than focusing on the pass game, that’s when Shanahan will strike.

The 49ers will need a big offensive performance to get the victory. And the question becomes whether or not the Chiefs will pull their weight. It’s hard to imagine Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs getting blown out in the Super Bowl. Therefore, when the 49ers are able to move the ball, there is no doubt the Chiefs will usually be able to respond. Kansas City may be a middle-of-the-pack offense on paper. However, when the lights shine brightest, Mahomes and Travis Kelce are usually able to pull something out of the bag and find a way to pick up massive first downs.

In short, if the 49ers are to win this game, it will be thanks to their superior offense rather than their suddenly questionable defensive unit. I smell a victory in the range of 30-23 for San Francisco, as once they build an early lead, they will refuse to take their foot off the gas on offense, which is what cost them the Super Bowl in 2020. If you’re planning on backing the 49ers, the Over is a safe bet to parlay, or take straight up.

If the Chiefs win…

This is the best defensive unit Patrick Mahomes has had throughout his career. There, I said it. I’m not taking away from what the Chiefs have done on the offensive side of the ball, as Rashee Rice and Kelce have made countless big plays to secure victories throughout the season. However, it would be foolish to peg this Chiefs team in the same category of previous editions of the blossoming dynasty. L’Jarius Sneed has been the best corner in the league this season, consistently making game-changing plays for his team, like the forced fumble on the goalline against Zay Flowers last week. Kansas City’s ability to shut teams down and keep Patrick Mahomes on the field more often than not has led them to their 4th Super Bowl in 5 years, despite numerous doubts heading into the year.

The 49ers offensive unit will struggle to unlock a potent Chiefs defense. And without the added time Lamar Jackson was able to buy himself with his legs, Purdy could find himself on the turf more often than he’d like. Trent Williams is one of the best left tackles in the league, but the rest of the 49ers offensive line has occasionally struggled throughout the year. Chris Jones will be eager to add to his 10.5 sacks from the regular season, and George Karlaftis already has 2.5 postseason sacks this year and will be confident he can add to that tally. The quick passing game for the 49ers may be enough to offset solid downfield coverage and a potent pass rush. However, if the Chiefs elect to prioritize limiting the screen and flat game, the 49ers could be in trouble.

Any time Patrick Mahomes steps onto the field, there is always a potential of high-scoring history to be made. However, as we’ve seen all season long, it has been big defensive plays that have been the Chiefs secret weapon. It would surprise nobody to see another scoreline in the range of the 38-35 shootout last year. However, if the Chiefs win, I’m calling that the 49ers will be staying Under 20 points. Considering the Chiefs have consistently stayed under this total throughout the year, a scoreline in the range of a 21-17 victory for Kansas City feels just about right. If you’re planning on backing the Chiefs in the big game, you can confidently add the Under to your betslip, too, as we will see Mahomes take a backseat and the KC defense take center stage.

This is the lowest total in the last 8 years in the Super Bowl, and for good reason. While both teams have solid offensive units, it has been superior defense that has gotten them to this late stage of the season. If the Chiefs prevail, the Under is the way to go, and if the 49ers emerge on top, the Over will cash with ease.

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