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Betting the Super Bowl Over and Under 2025 with Expert Analysis and Handicapping

by Spencer Toth - 1/30/2025

Betting the Super Bowl over under Kareem Hunt Kansas City Chiefs

There are hundreds of betting markets to attack at this year’s Super Bowl, but one of the easiest, and most profitable ones, is the over-under. There is nothing special about betting on the total, as the over-under has been a staple of sports betting for over a century. The sportsbooks will try and tempt you with wild and wacky markets such as “Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift after the game?” but these are often heavily juiced, unpredictable plays. You can get the standard -110 price on the total at almost every sportsbook across the nation, and betting on the total should be one of your primary wagers at this year’s Super Bowl. 

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Last year, the Chiefs took the game to overtime and edged out the 49ers, 25-22. The extra frame allowed the total to push the 47-point line, but there has been a heavy trend to the under in recent years. Before 2024, the Super Bowl had gone under the total in four of the last five championship games. The only over was when the Chiefs and Eagles met in 2023, and that was a classic 38-35 shootout. It can be easy to expect a boatload of points in the Super Bowl, but a repeat of that matchup is unlikely. The Chiefs and Eagles both had top 4 defensive units in terms of points allowed and will have two weeks to cook up a game plan to slow down the opposition. Including this year’s playoffs, the Eagles are 9-11 to the under, while the Chiefs are 8-11. The stage has been set with a 49-point total, and it is time to unpack how this game is expected to go down. A couple of strong defenses will look to cancel out the explosive offensive players, and I have identified two separate game scripts likely to unfold. 

If the Chiefs win…

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl this year, there is no doubt this total will stay under the 49-point total. Kansas City allowed the 9th fewest rushing yards this season, and that total was even inflated by a meaningless blowout in Week 18 from the Denver Broncos. George Karlaftis and Chris Jones will get praised for their quarterback pressures and sacks, but their value is also apparent when slowing down the run. Saquon Barkley is a crucial aspect of the Eagles offense. And if the Chiefs can slow him down, the Eagles will struggle offensively. 

As long as Kansas City has the lead, everything will point to the under cashing. The Eagles rely on their run game to find success on offense, and they will be hesitant to employ it at the cost of churning up the clock if they find themselves trailing. This is the best defensive unit Patrick Mahomes has had throughout his Kansas City tenure, and they are fully capable of slowing down the Eagles. Philadelphia has an inflated third down conversion rate thanks to the Tush Push. However, if they can’t get into third-and-short and fourth-and-short situations, they will be unable to pull out their not-so-secret weapon. As a result, their offense will fall apart, Kansas City will run out the clock, and this high total will not be touched. 

It is certainly daunting to take the Under against the greatest quarterback of this generation, but the Chiefs lack the explosive plays needed to quickly put up points. Kansas City deploys a consistent run game, and Patrick Mahomes has shown he will happily take short completions over risky shots down the field. Their 32 points against the Bills in the AFC championship was the first time the Chiefs scored 30+ points this season, and the Eagles allowed 25+ points just once in their last 15 games. 

If you believe the Kansas City Chiefs can win this game, don’t expect another 38-35 affair. This year’s Kansas City team is built on defense, and they will happily grind out another low-scoring, one possession victory. 

If the Eagles win…

If the Eagles are to win this game, they will need to do two things. On offense, Saquon Barkley will need to have a big game on the ground, which will also open up the passing game for Jalen Hurts. The Eagles find success both through the air and on the ground when their run game is humming along but have shown weakness through the air if they aren’t getting the support on the ground. On defense, they will need to continue generating turnovers. Zack Baun and CJ Gardner-Johnson have been turnover machines this season, and they will need at least one turnover to stay in this contest. 

Let’s start with offense. Saquon Barkley has torched opponents on the ground this season and came close to beating Barry Sanders’ single season rushing record. When Barkley can get big gains on first and second down, the Eagles can quickly find the endzone in the opening three quarters. Every NFL fan has seen Philadelphia drain the clock in the fourth quarter, but they have a surprisingly low average drive time otherwise considering their reliance on the run game. Contrary to traditional belief, if the Eagles find success on offense, they will be hitting the paydirt sooner rather than later on most of their drives. 

If the Chiefs find themselves trailing on the scoreboard, their offensive approach will dramatically change. They have trusted Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco in crucial situations this season. However, it is hard to imagine Andy Reid taking the ball out of Patrick Mahomes’ hands when the Chiefs need a touchdown. Expect the game script to not only affect play calling but also the pace of the Kansas City offense. They have been known to up their tempo on occasion, and catching the Eagles defense flat-footed could be their route back into the game. Mahomes has enough weapons to aim at in the passing game and will prioritize quick scores if he sees the Eagles finding success on offense. 

If Philadelphia is to win this game, it will be because of their offense, not their defense. It is extremely likely Mahomes will put up 20+ points, and the Eagles will need to outscore the future Hall of Famer to pull off the upset. As a result, if the Eagles are to win this game, they will need to turn it into the shootout it was in 2023 and hope they end up on the right side of the scoreline when the clock hits 0. If you plan on backing the Eagles this year in the Super Bowl, there is no doubt the Over is the way to go. You can play it straight up, but a same game parlay with the Eagles moneyline and Over 49 points could be the best bet to make in this matchup. 

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