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Betting Moneyline Parlays: Strategy and Wagering Advice

by Mike Allen - 9/1/2023

Betting moneyline parlays Sean Manaea San Francisco Giants

A moneyline bet is simply a straight bet placed on the winner of a game or competition. By definition, there is no point spread or point total involved.

A parlay is a wager type in which two or more bets are linked together to create one bet with a higher payout. All the selections must win for the bet to cash.

These bets are generally a lot of fun, until they aren’t. 

Doc's Sports does not promote or endorse parlay betting, but there is value to be had, in some instances, when parlaying two or three moneyline bets together.

When does a parlay go from a potentially valuable bet to a lottery ticket?

The answer is somewhere between two and three. Keep your parlays to two, maybe three legs, and no more. It is just one strategy we can use to profit on moneyline parlays. Here are a few others.

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Moneyline Parlay Betting Strategies

Forget About Big Payouts

When bettors parlay multiple point spreads together, the potential payouts soar. The conscious mind eyes a big payday, while the subconscious imagines catching the dragon of thrill and suspense.

It's difficult to walk away from. Picking three correct point spreads at (-110) each pays out at 6-1. That's a good-looking apple, but you know better.

Parlaying point spreads is a no-no, but that doesn't mean you should throw seven (-300) betting favorites in a parlay to get comparable value. Forget about the 6-1. Forget about the 3-1 and even discard the idea of 2-1 parlay payouts.

Many will have to completely reimagine what comes to mind when they hear the word, parlay.

Bet Multiple Sports Together

Depending on your sportsbook, you may have the opportunity to include multiple sports in your parlays.

There is usually one strong pick per week or in a set of games in each sport, but not two. Forcing that second strong pick is where many people begin to lose their way.

Let's say we have an NFL team and a UFC fighter we like. The team is a 14.5-point favorite with a moneyline of (-400), and the UFC fighter has odds of (-300) to win. You can parlay these two together for a (-150) payout.

Sometimes, a clear second leg will be there for you in the same sport, but having the freedom and the courage to pass on it and instead parlay betting odds of multiple sports together can help keep you in the green.

Bet On Undervalued Teams

Nothing has changed. We bet on odds we believe have value. Right?

Of course. So, why would you add a team or athlete’s moneyline odds if we don’t believe we have an edge on the sportsbooks?

People will still do the opposite, taking the betting favorites they determined didn't have enough value to place a wager and throw them in a parlay.

Parlay legs should all have value by themselves before you risk one of them losing. You’re only as strong as your weakest link.

What is a Parlay’s Implied Probability

Now for the numbers that nobody wants to see.

For example: We have two UFC fighters, each with moneyline betting odds of (-250) and an implied probability of 70%.

What are the odds of this hitting? We can answer this by multiplying the two probabilities by one another. The calculation is 0.70 x 0.70. The mathematical probability of this happening is 49%.

Most people would have guessed the probability would be over 50%. Employing this strategy may be enough to pull us off a potential bet, but it's good to be picky with parlay betting.

Cash Out Early

There are various sportsbooks that offer this option. They use a similar model as some game shows. If you have hit the first leg or two of your parlay, they will give you the opportunity to cash out early.

Here is where timing becomes paramount. If both your parlay legs started around the same time, you won't have much of a window to cash out. Even if you do, the chances there will be good value are low.

They will simply give you a number, and you can profit small or risk it all to win your original bet. Being responsible comes first in this business. So, check your ego at the door, take your small win, and cash out.

Hedge on Your Final Leg

Another strategy for moneyline parlay betting is hedging your bet on your final leg.

Let's say we won our first game in the afternoon. Now, we have a completely different set of rules and, most importantly, the leverage heading into the night game.

You can do the same with a UFC event. Include a parlay leg that is a betting favorite in the final few fights, and we can bet against them to guarantee ourselves a profit.

We can, of course, let our bet ride. In some cases, that is the right play, but if you can make a profit of 10% or more, take it.

So, parlays aren't "all or nothing" as some would say. They aren't our meat and potatoes either, but we have ways to make them work for us.

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