Best Buy 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 05/30/2008
Racing on Sunday afternoon is back as Dover International Speedway hosts NASCAR for the Bobby Alison dedication ceremony and the Best Buy 400 annual Autism Speaks benefit race at 2:15 p.m. on June 1.
Gamblers should keep in mind that "The Monster Mile" really does not favor any one driver as there have been nine different winners of the last nine races at Dover. Martin Truex, Jr. won this race last year, his first Sprint Cup win of his career. No active driver has more wins at Dover than Jeff Gordon, who is tied with Bill Eliot and Mark Martin with four while Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson both have three wins in Delaware.
Who will win the Best Buy 400?
Last weekend we had Jimmie Johnson to win at 8/1 and he did have a strong performance in the Coca-Cola 600. He led 35 laps and appeared to do no worse than finish in the top five, and perhaps even win, until his engine blew and he finished the race in 39th place. Teammate Dale Earnhardt, Jr. had a run of bad luck as well as he led the race for 76 laps but had to settle for fifth and another race without a victory bringing his winless streak to 74.
"Concrete" Carl Edwards won me a pile of money last year at Dover's September race, the Dodge Dealer's 400. Edwards does well on the concrete, which is one reason he has been set as the 5/1 favorite. Will we see another back flip from the No. 99 car driver? Something seems too easy about picking Edwards in this race.
However, nobody has had worse luck than Tony "Smoke" Stewart who saw his first Sprint Cup win in nine months blow out when he cut his tire and slammed into the wall as he held a comfortable lead with three laps to go. Instead of a first Stewart finished 18th and once again suffered a disappointing loss in a race he should have won. This is the third time this has happened to Stewart this season. The No. 20 car also led late in the two other races at Daytona and Bristol before losing to engine and tire troubles in the waning laps of the races.
Back in the old days Stewart did very well at Dover; he won twice, had five top-three finishes and nine top-fives. Joe Gibbs Racing brings a very fast car to the track and if Stewart hopes to end his streak of bad luck Dover's Monster Mile is a great place for him to start.
Pick! No. 20, Tony Stewart, (8/1)
Best Buy 400 Solid Gold Picks
Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Best Buy 400, considered one of the hardest tracks to race on in the Sprint Cup, this weekend. Last week, I won one unit on my Square Tire Pick backing Kasey Kahne at +1.25 against the 'Old Man' Mark Martin. Too bad we didn't pick Kahne outright to win as he swept two races at LMS in eight days. This brings my record Over-the-Wall to 9-8 with -.55 units on the season and a return over .500 with 12 of 36 Sprint Cup races completed.
Long Odds Value Pick
Earlier this season Richard Childress Racing had a 1-2-3 finish on the short track at Bristol. Jeff Burton's No. 31 car won the race outright beating teammates Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer in that order. Currently Burton is ranked second in the Sprint Cup standings and he is 94 points behind Kyle Busch. In 12 starts this year Burton has had one win, three top-fives and eight top-10 finishes and has not recorded a DNF. He has done some of his best racing on the short/intermediate tracks and is eager to get his Chevrolet back on the victory lap. If you are looking for some good excitement and value for your long odds play Burton will keep you cheering until the end.
Pick! Jeff Burton 25/1
Square Tire Pick
Matt Kenseth (-1.5)/Jeff Gordon (+1.05)
The reason for this number quite simply has more to do with Gordon's perceived difficulties and problems this year than perhaps is actually the case. Granted Gordon has not had his best year this year but he is far from awful and the dangerous part about Gordon is that he is a threat to win every time he gets behind the wheel. Of Gordon's 81 career wins, four of them have come at Dover and just about 50 percent of his total wins have come on intermediate tracks. Gordon has an average finish of 12.3 at Dover. Kenseth, on the other hand, has not been inspirational despite moving up four places in the standings to 16th after the Coca-Cola 600. Kenseth has one win at Dover, five top five finishes and an average finish of 15.3. At 10th place in the Sprint Cup standings Gordon is well within the Chase while Kenseth is still chasing. Anyway you look at it it's hard not to like Gordon in the position and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the 12/1 shot won the race outright.
Pick! Jeff Gordon +1.05
*Best Buy 400 Odds
Dover International Speedway
Sun, June 1st (2:00pm EST)
A.J. Allmendinger (150/1)
Bill Elliott (250/1)
Bobby Labonte (80/1)
Brian Vickers (75/1)
Carl Edwards (5/1)
Casey Mears (65/1)
Chad McCumbee (300/1)
Clint Bowyer (28/1)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1)
Dave Blaney (100/1)
David Gilliland (150/1)
David Ragan (35/1)
David Reutimann (100/1)
Denny Hamlin (9/1)
Elliott Sadler (65/1)
Greg Biffle (11/1)
J.J. Yeley (200/1)
Jamie McMurray (80/1)
Jason Leffler (200/1)
Jeff Burton (25/1)
Jeff Gordon (12/1)
Jeremy Mayfield (250/1)
Jimmie Johnson (8/1)
Joe Nemechek (250/1)
John Andretti (300/1)
Juan Pablo Montoya (80/1)
Kasey Kahne (20/1)
Kevin Harvick (28/1)
Kurt Busch (35/1)
Kyle Busch (11/2)
Mark Martin (20/1)
Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)
Matt Kenseth (11/1)
Michael McDowell (250/1)
Michael Waltrip (100/1)
Patrick Carpentier (250/1)
Paul Menard (150/1)
Reed Sorenson (100/1)
Regan Smith (250/1)
Robby Gordon (200/1)
Ryan Newman (25/1)
Sam Hornish Jr. (100/1)
Scott Riggs (100/1)
Tony Stewart (8/1)
Travis Kvapil (100/1)
*Odds courtesy of Bodog.