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Best Bets for Teams to Make the NFL Playoffs: Yes or No Props

by Mike Allen - 11/14/2023

Best bets for teams to make NFL Playoffs Justin Herbert Los Angeles Chargers

As we enter Week 11 of the NFL regular season, the playoff picture remains a mystery for many teams. For some, that's a good thing, and for others, it's not. I guess that's why expectations are generally a net negative in life.

For instance, the Buffalo Bills did not expect in Week 11 to have an implied probability of less than 35% to make the playoffs. The Los Angeles Chargers are another AFC disappointment like the Bills. Their implied probability of making the postseason is even lower at just 33%.

If you're looking for a buy-low spot on highly talented teams that have underachieved thus far, the Bills and the Chargers jump off the page to me. They each have difficult schedules to end the year, particularly the Bills, who play the Chiefs, Eagles, and Cowboys in consecutive games.

The overachiever of this bunch is undoubtedly the Houston Texans. I just did a write-up on the MVP betting odds for this season, and CJ Stroud is just now entering the conversation. His stats are comparable, if not better, than any other QB.

He has a good argument, especially when you ask yourself to rattle off a list of elite players on the Texans. A lot of experts were expecting the book to be out on Stroud already. There we go with that “e” word again.

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Buffalo Bills

Yes: +190

No: -230

The Buffalo Bills haven’t had a lot of luck this year and have been plagued by injuries to their defense and turnovers on offense. They can have trouble running the ball consistently, but quarterback Josh Allen racks up a lot of yards.

They just find a way to fumble or throw it to the other team. What’s so sad is they are top 3 in the NFL on both 3rd down % and scoring a TD in the red zone.

Last night was the icing on the cake, though. If you haven’t seen how they managed to lose this past Monday Night, do yourself a favor and don’t watch while you’re eating. It was disgusting.

I can’t imagine any Bills player could eat after that one.

As for the odds, though, I love them. I hate their schedule, however. I also hate this team. I haven’t been able to get them right all year.

Prediction: Pass

Cincinnati Bengals

Yes: -145

No: +115

They can't run the ball, and they can't stop the run. That has been the modus operandi for the Bengals all year. Even with possibly the best passer of the football in the league under center, they are currently sitting outside of playoff contention.

However, I believe in Joe Burrow and that he will continue to be the most valuable offensive player in the league.

Prediction: Yes (-145)

Houston Texans

Yes: -120

No: -110

The Houston Texans have an easier schedule to end the season than the Bills or the Bengals. They have, without a doubt, overachieved to this point. Maybe you come back to this bet later in the season because it truly is a coin flip right now.

Prediction: Pass

Indianapolis Colts

Yes: +250

No: -325

The bubble team with possibly the easiest remaining schedule on paper has a big ole (+250) next to their name to make the playoffs this season. The Indianapolis Colts have a win over the Baltimore Ravens this year but have mostly played the gatekeeper role in the AFC to this point.

They are 5-5 scoring 248 total points to their opponents’ 242. They could potentially be favored in 6 of their remaining 7 games. If you want a flyer on an unfashionable team, the Colts are a decent play.

You may want to wait a week or two, though, to see if they can get a couple more wins, because if you bet them now and they lose the next two, we are toast.

Prediction: Pass

Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes: -110

No: -120

Where is Mike Tomlin’s name in the betting odds for NFL Coach of the Year?!

Okay, I see they moved him up to 4th. He is currently (+1200) to win it, while the favorites are all fresh new names. That award is slightly annoying. They should call it “Best New Coach of the Year”.

Mike Tomlin has an offensive coordinator that the entire country wanted to be fired early on in the beginning of the season. Tomlin's team has been outscored 182-156, yet they have a record of 6-3.

So, do we bet on them to finally regress? Or do we bet on great coaching to continue winning close games? They are much better at home, and they have 3 remaining home games with 5 on the road. Two of the home games are against the Cardinals and the Patriots.

Of those 5 road games, they are against 5 potential playoff teams.

Prediction: No (-120)

Seattle Seahawks

Yes: -450

No: +325

The Seahawks are in a buy-high spot this week after a big win. They still travel to Dallas, LA to play the Rams, Tennessee, and Arizona. These are winnable road games, yes, but their home schedule is much more difficult.

They still have to play San Francisco twice. For this price, I will fade Seattle.

Prediction: No (+325)

Los Angeles Chargers

Yes: +200

No: -260

Here is that buy-low spot we spoke of earlier if you want it. They still have to play KC and Baltimore, but they host those games. They have several winnable games on the road coming up.

I dig a play here on the Chargers.

Prediction: LA Chargers Yes (+200)

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