Best Bets for the 2024 Kentucky Derby

by Mike Allen - 5/3/2024

Kentucky Derby contenders will Run for the Roses.

In just a matter of days, it will be time for you to bust out your favorite pastel pants while your wife’s way too big of a hat hits your doorstep in that Amazon box.

You already know what that means. It is officially Springtime, and this year, we celebrate the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. What an iconic and historic event! We have to go all the way back to the year 1875 to find the first.

The way the world is moving, the 90s seem like a distant memory for the majority of us. I can’t imagine the 1800s.

One thing is for sure, though. If prostitution is the world's oldest profession, then being a bookie runs a close second place. As you saw Michael Jordan "pitching pennies" on The Last Dance, betting on anything, for better or worse, adds fun and excitement as long as your money lasts.

Whether official or not, I would bet my life there were plenty of wagers placed on the first Kentucky Derby. That said, we have come quite a long way since, in terms of sophistication.

Picking a winner is exciting, of course. However, there are a multitude of betting options available to us now. Today, I want to give you my best bets for the Kentucky Derby. We will include one that is fairly straightforward and also a couple of prop bets to make the world's #1 horse race even more fun.

The gun has sounded. Let’s get to our best bets for the 150th Kentucky Derby.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

Kentucky Derby Best Bets

To Finish in the Top 3 Places

Sierra Leone: +105

Despite having the coolest name in the field, Sierra Leone, in my humble opinion, has the best chance to finish inside the top 3 horses at this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Why does he have the same odds as Fierceness to finish inside the top 3? Well, Sierra Leone is a closer, and Fierceness is pure speed. When the latter loses, he has lost badly. And when he has won, it has usually been by a significant margin.

I like Fierceness to win outright. More on that in a moment, but I'll take the stronger finisher to potentially push late toward a potential 3rd or 2nd place.

Down the stretch, they come!

Winning Time

Over 2:02: +130

Under 2:02: -165

Famed horse racing owner Bob Baffert will not be involved or in attendance for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, as he is still suspended. You know they all do at the highest level, but he was clearly the best at bending, and, at times, outright breaking the rules to win.

There is an old saying, "If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying" and Baffert has lived by this for his entire career.

I like the over 2:02 here as the best finishing time at the Kentucky Derby, not because the consensus #1 owner is out of the mix, but more so because the other owners now know that the governing body isn't playing around.

They are going to be that much more hesitant when it comes time to break or bend those rules. That includes performance enhancers, along with any and every way they can find an edge over the other teams and horses.

Last year’s winning time was less than half of a second from going over the 2:02 mark.

Pick: Over 2:02 (+130)

Fierceness to Win: 5/2

Fierceness has lived up to his name thus far in his short career as a racehorse. He has won 3 of his 5 starts thus far in his young career.

Horse racing fans and bettors currently use the Equibase Speed Rating to gauge and quantify how fast a particular horse truly is in a particular race. A good ESR is about 80 or more, and Fierceness, in two of his three victories, has posted a score of 110 twice!

He is easily the fastest horse in the Kentucky Derby field. However, the faster you are, the faster you fade. Why are we picking him if he could potentially slow down considerably in the latter part of the race?

Well, if he had the endurance to match, his odds would be virtually unplayable. Fierceness is the betting favorite for a reason. He is the fastest horse and has been the most dominant in his wins.

The rain that will most likely come on Friday and potentially on Saturday also benefits the speedy horses, and no other equine in the field can match this absolute unit before endurance comes into play.

The argument against him is that he could gas. That is the same argument others have used against him, and he has proven them wrong more than right.

Fierceness is also very inconsistent, which is fine when we are picking a winner. To win a race this big with so much competition, the rider, trainer, and horse all need to commit to taking the risk of getting tired and possibly finishing at the back of the field as the betting favorite.

Their losses and wins both show this. As we stated earlier, a closer like Sierra Leone is a better play for a top 3 finish, but give me the aggression and raw talent right out of the gate to hopefully build a strong enough lead to hold off the strong finishers.

Get expert sports picks on every game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

Most Recent Kentucky Derby Picks and Predictions

Start:	November 21, 2024 @ 11:59 PM
Expert:	Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy)
Free $60 Account Sign Up