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2024 Belmont Stakes Predictions and Recommended $100 Wager

by Spencer Toth - 6/5/2024

Belmont Stakes predictions Seize the Grey

The Belmont Stakes takes place this weekend, on Saturday June 8, 2024. This is the third and final race in the Triple Crown, and it’s time to place our bets for the big race. There is no opportunity for anyone to win the Triple Crown, after Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby and Seize the Grey took home the win at the Preakness Stakes.

There are a trio of horses that are worth an investment in this year’s race, and there are countless opportunities to generate a solid profit at the 2024 Belmont Stakes. Here are your best bets for the Belmont Stakes, including how you should be allocating your bank roll at this event.

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Sierra Leone: (9-5)

Sierra Leone is the clear favorite to win this year’s Belmont Stakes. While the odds aren’t as long as I had hoped for, there is still a solid return available on a Sierra Leone victory. Trainer Chad Brown has developed Sierra Leone into a competitive horse. Unfortunately, he was just unable to win his previous Triple Crown race, finishing second by a nose to Mystik Dan at the Kentucky Derby. The Belmont Stakes isn’t sporting the most competitive field, as Mystik Dan is the biggest threat to once again spoil a Sierra Leone victory. Sierra Leone is a strong horse, with a solid jockey in Flavien Prat. Prat has already won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes in his career and will be looking to get his third and final victory at the Belmont Stakes. Sierra Leone’s 107 speed rating achieved at his Blue Grass Stakes victory ensures he has the straight-line speed to get a victory.

There is no doubt Sierra Leone is the best horse in the field. The question is whether or not we can justify a bet at 9-5 odds. The short answer is yes. Sierra Leone may have lost the Kentucky Derby, but he was forced to take an extremely inefficient route in that race. He started at the back of the pack, had to take the outside lane on the corners, and still lost by a nose. With a smaller field at the Belmont Stakes, Sierra Leone will be able to pull ahead. And once he does that, he will not be caught. Prat did a great job at guiding Sierra Leone to a second-place finish at his most recent race and will know he will not want to fall behind again. The odds may not allow for the usual massive return on a horse racing victory, but there is still plenty of money to be made when Sierra Leone crosses the finish line first, by what will likely be a wide margin.

Percent to win: 80%

Mindframe: (7-2)

There is no doubt this is the biggest race of Mindframe’s young career, and he will be able to finish on the podium at this year’s Belmont Stakes. Mindframe won his first two races in dominant fashion, including a race on the undercard of the 2024 Kentucky Derby. This is a massive step up in competition for him, but he has the speed out of the gate to take an early lead. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has proven he is one of the best at controlling explosive horses and is the perfect man to ride the saddle of Mindframe. Mindframe will undoubtedly be at the front of the pack as the race gets underway. However, the question is whether or not he can maintain his pace.

Trainer Todd Pletcher is clearly confident in his horse by entering him into this race, and it’s hard to doubt one of the best horse trainers in the world. While Mindframe may not have needed to push his top speed against weak opposition, he still posted a 103 speed rating in his last race, winning by a whopping 21 and a half lengths. His ability to start the race strong may fill Ortiz Jr. with confidence, but I don’t see him overexerting his horse if he starts to fall behind. A second- or third-place finish for Mindframe in his first major race will be seen as a huge success. With that strategy in mind, there is little value on Mindframe to run away from the field, but I am very confident he will be finishing on the podium Saturday evening.

Percent to win: 15%

Honor Marie: (12-1)

Honor Marie will not be getting attention from the mainstream media at this year’s race, but he can absolutely pull off the upset at the Belmont Stakes. At the Kentucky Derby, Honor Marie came out of the gate in dead last but showed plenty of perseverance to climb his way to an 8th-place finish. An 8th-place finish is nothing to write home about, but the nature of his race has me confident he can improve even further at the Belmont Stakes. Honor Marie was forced to take a very wide turn in the first turn of the race but did not lose hope with the dirt flying in his face. There will be a much less crowded field at this year’s event, and this will allow the horses that struggle in packs but have the straight line speed to excel. Like the other two picks, Honor Marie’s poor crowd management cost them previous victories, and that shouldn’t be as much of a problem this time around. Honor Marie has all the characteristics you are looking for. He got bounced around in his previous races, finishing lower than he deserved. This has kept the price nice and high on a positive Honor Marie finish. Additionally, his ability to battle through adversity will allow him to battle for a podium position. If Sierra Leone or one of the other big favorites take an early lead, Honor Marie will be able to hold off the chasing pack and settle for a promising finish in his first race at this level of competition.

Percent to win: 5%

Belmont Stakes Recommended Wagers:

$45 Sierra Leone to Win 

$30 Mindframe to Show 

$25 Honor Marie to Show

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