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2024 Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario and Handicapping

by Joey House - 6/5/2024

Belmont Stakes pace scenario Seize the Grey

While the 156th running of the Belmont Stakes will not produce the 14th Triple Crown winner, Saturday's race is still generating a great deal of excitement. Due to renovations at Belmont Park, the third jewel of the Triple Crown will be held at Saratoga for the next two years. This marks the first time in the storied history of the Belmont Stakes that it will not be run on the Belmont track.

The most important difference between the two different tracks is the shorter dimensions of Saratoga versus Belmont. These dimensions will cause the race to be run at 1 1/4 mile (the same distance as the Kentucky Derby) instead of the usual 1 1/2 mile.

Without a prohibitive favorite, the 10-horse field is wide open. The Kentucky Derby winner, Mystik Dan (5-1), will square off against the winner of the Preakness, Seize the Grey (8-1). Yet neither one of those horses cracks the top 2 in lowest odds. That honor goes to Sierra Leone (9-5) and Triple Crown newcomer Mindframe (7-2). In all, five horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby will run this Saturday, as well as the first two finishers in the Preakness. Mystik Dan is the only entry that has run all three legs of the Triple Crown.

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Post Positions

1 Seize the Grey 8-1

2 Resilience 10-1

3 Mystik Dan 5-1

4 The Wine Steward 15-1

5 Antiquarian 12-1

6 Dornoch 15-1

7 Protective 20-1

8 Honor Marie 12-1

9 Sierra Leone 9-5

10 Mindframe 7-2

Running Styles

With the distance being shortened by 440 yards, a quarter of a mile, the Belmont's pace scenario should be much faster than normal. This will completely change the strategy that will be implemented by the trainers and jockeys.

Pacesetters

Seize the Grey ran wire-to-wire in his win at the Preakness and will go hard again from the innermost post. Dornoch broke poorly from the rail in the Kentucky Derby but has a more advantageous post position and with a better break should be one of the frontrunners.

Stalkers

Mystik Dan has executed his stalking strategy to near perfection, taking up the sixth position in the early stages of his Derby win and fourth in his Preakness place finish. Resilience, starting in between the winners of the first two jewels of the Triple Crown, added blinkers two races back and was just off the lead in his sixth-place finish in the Derby. Antiquarian was in a wide stalking position for his win in the 2024 Peter Pan. Protective is the last of this group which is still looking to notch their first victory.

Closers

Early morning line favorite Sierra Leone is the prototypical hard-charging closer and has mastered the tactic, finishing in the top two in all five of his races and is two second-place "beaten by a nose" finishes from being a perfect 5-0. Getting a start in the nine-post position won't bother him at all. He most likely will be traveling with Honor Marie, who had a rough trip his last time out in the Kentucky Derby.

Hybrids

Mindframe was a non-stop leader in his win his last time out at Churchill Downs on the Kentucky Derby undercard but also came from fourth for his first victory. The Wine Steward also has the tactical ability to stalk or run in the middle of the pack and make their break later.

Pace Scenario with Weather Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to partially roll in Thursday (30% chance) and stick around throughout the weekend, with a 60% chance on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, according to the National Weather Service with high temperatures near 74 for the weekend. Mystik Dan loves the slop and trainer Kenny McPeek would not be bothered at all with an off-track.

Seize the Grey will look to repeat his Preakness performance, racing to the front and holding off any attempts to overthrow his lead. Dornoch can't help but get a better start than his Derby beginning and should be with Seize the Grey as the front runners early. Mystik Dan and Antiquarian are in prime positions to stalk the leaders and make their bids at the end. The way the public is betting the race, they think that there will be a fierce speed duel and Sierra Leone rallies from behind and catches them all, as he almost did in the Kentucky Derby.

I like the 12-1 Antiquarian nab the third jewel of the 2024 Triple Crown, giving trainer Todd Pletcher his fifth Belmont Stakes win. Since breaking his maiden back in February, each race of his has gotten faster. He should be able to stay with Mystik Dan and battle his rivals for the lead late and hopefully stave off the guaranteed challenge from Sierra Leone. At the early price of 12-1, I love getting a horse trained by a 4-time Belmont winner.

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