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2024-25 Baylor Bears Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/29/2024

Baylor Bears basketball predictions Langston Love

The Baylor Bears really profited from their dominant nonconference play last season. They would go 11-2 in nonconference games, picking up key resume building wins against Auburn and Florida, while their lone two losses were to future tournament teams in Michigan State and #21 Duke. However, their conference schedule was not as kind to them. The Bears would finish 11-7 in the Big 12, finishing third in the conference standings. They picked up some key wins over #7 Kansas, #18 BYU, #12 Iowa State, among others, but they also saw a lot of games get away from them late in the game. The Bears would go on to lose to Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinal game, losing by 14. Baylor did enough to earn their bid to March Madness and were given the 3-Seed in the West Region. The Bears would dominate their first-round matchup, taking down 14-Seed Colgate by 25, but would see their season end at the hands of 6-Seed Clemson in the following round.

What Baylor lacked in defensive ability, they more than made up for in offense. The Bears ranked second in the Big 12 conference with 80.4 PPG while shooting 48.3% as a team and a conference leading 38.9% 3P%. They finished 11th in the Big 12 in allowed PPG, letting opponents average 71.1 PPG and maintaining an FG% over 45%. Their +5.3% 3P% was the best 3P% differential in the Big 12 and their +5.9 RPG was the third best mark in the conference. The Bears had one of the deepest offensive rosters in the game, with six players averaging double-digit PPG. Ja’Kobe Walter led the team with 14.5 PPG, with RayJ Dennis right behind him with 13.6 PPG. Dennis averaged 6.7 APG, which not only led the team but ranked in the Top 10 in the country. Jalen Bridges averaged 12.2 PPG and led the team with 5.7 RPG. Langston Love (11 PPG), Yves Missi (10.7 PPG), and Jayden Nunn (10.5 PPG) were the other three Bears players to average double-digits.

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Baylor Bears Basketball Key Additions/Losses

Baylor has lost a lot of production from last year’s team. They lost their top three scorers in Walter, Dennis and Bridges, as well as their big man Missi, as they have all moved on to the NBA. In addition to the NBA departures, guard Dantwan Grimes (12 games) transferred to Southeastern Louisiana. Grimes was not the only Bears player to transfer out of the program, as Caleb Lohner (9.2 MPG) and Miro Little (7.1 MPG) both transferred to Utah. For any team, losing seven players off of last year’s roster is significant.

However, they did a great job in replacing the departed players. Their biggest addition via the transfer portal was Jeremy Roach, who averaged 14 PPG and shot 42.9% from deep for the Duke Blue Devils last season. Joining Roach via the transfer portal was Norchard Omier and Jalen Celestine. Omier has averaged a double-double every year in his college career and is joining the Bears after two seasons in Miami, where he averaged 17 PPG and 10 RPG for the Hurricanes last season. Celestine is coming over from California, where he averaged 8.7 PPG while shooting 44% from deep. In addition to the three transfers, the Bears also signed three Top 100 players via the high school ranks. Their biggest signee is five-star VJ Edgecombe, who is the highest rated small forward in the class and the fifth overall prospect nationally. Joining Edgecombe are four-stars Rob Wright (23rd nationally) and Jason Asemota (72nd nationally).

Baylor Bears Basketball X-Factors

Nonconference Games- Baylor is coming off one of their better seasons last year, but as mentioned they have lost a lot. They did bring in two of the best players in the transfer portal as well as one of the best high school players from last season, but it remains to be seen how they will mesh on the floor and what the ceiling of this Bears team really is, with depth in question. We should get a good look from the get-go as the Bears will open their season against #6 Gonzaga and will follow up that game with a matchup against #16 Arkansas. As if that wasn’t enough, they also travel to Storrs to take on #3 UConn in a true road game. They also take on St. Johns in the Baha Mar Hoops tournament. And if they win, they could take on #12 Tennessee. This is a tough nonconference schedule for a team that plays in the Big 12 and for a team that lost four key players to the NBA. We should learn their ceiling and get an idea of just how well Edgecombe, Roach, and Omier can play together.

Baylor Bears Basketball Notable Games

Home- #20 Cincinnati, #1 Kansas, #10 Arizona, #4 Houston

Away/Neutral- #6 Gonzaga, #16 Arkansas, St. Johns, #3 UConn, #5 Iowa State, #10 Arizona, #4 Houston, #20 Cincinnati

Baylor Bears Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +3000

Final Four: +650

Conference Winner: +800

Wooden Award: V.J. Edgecombe- +3000

Wooden Award: Norchad Omier- +8000

Wooden Award: Jeremy Roach- +9500

AP Top 25- 8th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 8th

KenPom- 11th

Baylor Bears Basketball Predictions

It’s not secret that Edgecombe could very well be the best freshman this season and will be slotted into a starting five that features Roach and Omier. Love and Nunn should move into the starting lineup as well, which will give the Bears one of the best three-point shooting squads in the nation. Their ability to have success beyond the arc will be crucial for the Bears and could make them a dangerous matchup come tournament time. They have the veterans and depth, though not as deep as last season. Baylor will once again be a thorn in the side of many conference opponents and will be battle tested heading into Big 12 play, which could pay dividends as they try and win a conference title. I will be taking a flier on the Bears at +800 to win the Big 12.

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