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2024 Baltimore Orioles Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 2/13/2024

Baltimore Orioles predictions Adley Rutschman

Summary of Last Season

Last year, the Baltimore Orioles went on a Cinderella like run in the regular season thanks to multiple breakout performances and emergence of their loaded farm system. The Orioles would finish the regular season with the second-best record in baseball at 101-61 and claimed the 1-Seed in the playoffs. All of that just to be swept by the eventual World Series Champions.

When it comes to the breakouts, there was no bigger impact than 22-year-old third-baseman Gunnar Henderson, who would lead the team in WAR, OPS, Triples, and would finish tied with the team lead in homeruns. He was tied with Anthony Santander who finished with 28 homeruns and led the team with 95 RBIs. As a team, Baltimore ranked 7th in runs, 14th in OPS, and 17th in homeruns.

The emergence of Kyle Bradish was also incredibly impactful as he anchored the rotation and led the teams’ arms in WAR, ERA, strikeouts, and finished with over 168 innings. Yennier Cano was huge for the Orioles bullpen when Felix Bautista was injured, as the All-Star would go on to post a 2.11 ERA in 72 relief appearances. The Orioles pitching staff would go on to rank 7th in ERA and 8th in WHIP while the bullpen would rank 5th in ERA.

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Key Additions/Losses

At the beginning of February, the Orioles would make their biggest move of the offseason by bringing in Corbin Burnes to lead their rotation this season. They also brought in veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel to reinforce the back-end reliever group and give Baltimore another power arm.

Innings leader Kyle Gibson has signed with the St. Louis Cardinals. However, with the addition of Burnes, it’s easy to say the production has been replaced two-fold and the rotation looks even stronger headed into this season. Aaron Hicks and Adam Frazier also became free agents, but neither player was part of the long-term plans. More on this later.

Prospect Outlook

Even after the recent graduations of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez, the farm system is still loaded, and we will likely see more impact players emerge this upcoming season. Hicks wasn’t brought back, as the outfield group is getting even more crowded as Colton Cowser (2nd ranked prospect) and Heston Kjerstad (3rd ranked prospect) are expected to take on the 4th outfielder role behind Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays.

He may not be labeled a prospect anymore, but second-baseman Jordan Westburg is only 24-years-old and is likely to start the season in the mix with Ramon Urias.

Oh, and yes, how could I forget? Baseball’s No. 1 overall prospect, Jackson Holliday, is likely to get the call at some point this season, especially if Urias, Westburg, or Jorge Mateo lack in production.

X-Factors

Rutschman/Henderson duo- There is a lot of hype around the two budding stars, and the Orioles need to ensure the noise doesn’t keep them from producing. Rutschman is widely considered the best catcher in baseball, while Henderson exceeded expectations in his first full season with the club. The two combined for 48 homeruns and 162 RBIs with a combined 10.6 WAR. They are slated to be one of the best and brightest offensive duos going into the season. And with little attention to the offense this offseason, they need to repeat their success.

John Means- Don’t forget about the former All-Star. After Tommy John surgery limited him to just six starts since 2021, the LHP is back and ready to make an impact. Means is set to join a rotation that includes Burnes, Bradish, Rodriguez, and Tyler Wells. If Means can find his way back, this rotation might be the best in baseball in 2024.

Expectations

The expectations are another run at the AL Pennant and of course being crowned champions of the world. Under new ownership, a ton of young talent meshed with proven veterans, and a weaker division outlook, the Orioles should make a run. The offense will likely need to take a step forward. And with a lot of prospects at their disposal, the flexibility might be the strong suit of this team. They have four MLB ready bats that they can call on or trade to enhance the lineup. Baltimore should find themselves atop the AL East division once again, and the Orioles will be hungry to make a run after a first round sweep in last year’s playoffs.

Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +1200

Pennant Winners- +550

Division Winners- +200

AL Cy Young- Corbin Burnes +1100

AL Rookie of the Year- Jackson Holiday +400

Predictions

After acquiring Burnes, I think Baltimore will end up being one of the best teams in baseball again this season. With Kimbrel and Cano anchoring the bullpen, Means strengthening an already deep rotation, and a multitude of young offensive talent, Baltimore is a lock for the playoffs and a trade or two away from being considered the best in the American League, if they aren’t already.

After the Burnes trade, their win total prediction went from 88.5 to 91.5, but Burnes is worth more than three wins and the over 91.5 is a strong bet.

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