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2024 Atlantic-10 Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/11/2024

Atlantic 10 Tournament predictions Liam Weaver Richmond

The Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament will begin on March 12 in Barclay’s Center. The A-10 could potentially get two teams selected on Selection Sunday, if the conference winner is not the Dayton Flyers. In the latest Bracketology update, both the Flyers and the Richmond Spiders are projected to make the tournament, with the Spiders holding the automatic qualifier. One team not getting talked about enough is the Ramblers from Loyola Chicago, who finished the season going 17-3 in their final 20 games and split the regular season title with the Spiders. To round out the top four teams, and those who get a double bye in the conference tournament, is the UMass Minutemen, who finished with an 11-7 conference record and finished the season winning six of their last eight contests.

In a conference known for defense, the tournament is sure to be exciting. Eight of the league’s 15 teams have allowed less than 70 PPG, with the George Mason Patriots leading the way, allowing just 66 PPG. Twelve of the 15 teams limited the opposition’s impact from beyond the arc, holding them to less than 35% from deep. In the defense-laden conference, every team averaged at least 70 points on offense, with UMass leading the way with 78.1 PPG.

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The Top Four:

#1 Richmond Spiders 23-8 (15-3), NET- 73, +475 to win

After a 5-5 start to the season, the Spiders really got going, finishing 18-3, and they picked up the upset win over the ranked Dayton Flyers in the process. They largely dominated in their conference play (except their last game) and ended up winning six of their last seven games to close out the season. They get the job done on defense and hope their offense has enough time to get going. They have suffocated the opposition all season long, as teams shot 40.3% from the floor and just 31.4% from deep and they lead the conference with a +2.1 SPG differential. The offense isn’t great, and their rebounding is a huge thorn for this squad, but they have managed to put themselves in a position to win. Their 5.6 offensive RPG is the worst in the A-10, and they average only 72.7 PPG. Guard Jordan King, who is averaging 18.5 PPG, will need to continue to stay hot from beyond the arc (42.6%) if the Spiders want to win the tournament.

#2 Loyola Chicago Ramblers 23-8 (15-3), NET- 84, +550 to win

The Ramblers are another ‘came out of nowhere’ team and are now the second seed in the conference. Their two-point loss to Richmond is the only reason they didn’t get the regular season title. They won 10 of their last 11 games and currently bring a three-game winning streak into the postseason. They did go 1-2 against ranked opponents this season, and they will likely need to win the conference in order to extend their season. The Ramblers lead the conference with 16.8 APG and averaged just over 73 PPG. The defense is decent and gives the offense enough time to pull away. Their +6.3-point differential and +5.7% FG% differential both rank fourth in the conference.

#3 Dayton Flyers 24-6(14-4), NET- 21, +150 to win

The Flyers are the clear favorites to take home the A-10 Tournament crown despite being a three seed. They were the only ranked A-10 member, and their resume includes wins over St. John’s and LSU and competitive road loss at Northwestern. Their four conference losses were all on the road, and they kept them within single digits. The Flyers’ only double-digit loss this season is to the Houston Cougars. They are one of the best teams beyond the arc in the country, shooting over 40% from deep and average 75.3 PPG on an 48.2% FG%. Their defense ranks third in the conference and held their opponents to less than 42% shooting as a team. The +9% 3P% differential is going to prove to be a huge difference maker for this club in this tournament, and the next.

#4 UMass Minutemen 20-10 (11-7), NET- 83, +700 to win

The Minutemen are an exciting team to watch, and they are getting hot at the right time. They won four of their last five games and have only one conference loss that eclipsed the double-digit mark. UMass leads the conference in scoring at just over 78 PPG, despite only shooting 69.8% from the line and a mere 31.4% from deep. They win the games thanks to their dominant presence on the offensive boards, leading the conference with 13.5 per game. If UMass can control the boards, they may just have enough to win the conference.  

Dark Horse: VCU Rams 19-12 (11-7), +1000 to win

The Rams 12 losses are not a great indicator of who this team is. Their nonconference losses included Iowa State (by four), Boise Stare (by four), Memphis (by five in overtime), and McNeese State who has been a solid team this season. VCU beat Dayton at home and then took them to overtime on the road before falling just short of sweeping the season series. The Rams play elite level defense on the perimeter, and they lead the conference with a 78.8% FT%, a vital sign to postseason success.

Chaos Contender: George Mason Patriots 20-11 (9-9), +1500 to win

The Patriots put up a poor showing overall in the conference, going just 9-9. However, they play the best defense in the conference and are second to just UMass in their dominance in the rebound game. The offense isn’t great on paper, but they also take just over 53 shots per game as they play at a slower pace and let their defense do the talking. Sound familiar? How about the Dayton Flyers, oh and by the way, George Mason beat Dayton this season.  

Predictions

Dayton is the only team in the conference that can lose and still make it to the big tournament. I think the Spiders poor offensive rebounding will catch up to them, making the path easier for the Flyers. However, I am a big fan of the Minutemen and their ability to create second chances. Shots fall in March, it’s science. Give me UMass to be the first big Cinderella storyline.

UMass Minutemen +700

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