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2024-25 Atlanta Hawks Predictions and Odds to Win NBA Finals

by Spencer Toth - 9/19/2024

Atlanta Hawks predictions Trae Young

After three straight seasons ending at the play-in tournament, the Hawks were expected to dismantle their roster and head into a rebuild. However, their 3% chance at the first overall pick came through, and the Hawks suddenly have a franchise cornerstone in Zaccharie Risacher to build around. Can Atlanta finally get into the top seeds in the Eastern Conference, or will it be another season of mediocrity for the Hawks?

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Atlanta Hawks Offseason Recap

There were two major offseason moves for the Atlanta Hawks. The first was their victory in the draft lottery, which allowed them to select Risacher first overall. The second was their trade of Dejounte Murray, signaling the end of an era for Atlanta basketball. 

Murray was acquired by the Atlanta Hawks two years ago in exchange for three first round picks. The move didn’t really pan out for either side, as they failed to move past the first round with Murray on the roster. In this offseason, Murray was sent to the New Orleans Pelicans in exchange for three first round picks and a trio of bench caliber players. Murray’s arrival was supposed to give Trae Young an All-Star partner in the backcourt. And with his departure, Young is the lone All-Star once again. Larry Nance Jr. and Dyson Daniels can play some meaningful minutes for the Hawks, but it is clear the primary assets from the Murray trade will be used on future endeavors. 

While the Hawks lost Murray, this offseason was still a massive success. Atlanta won the draft lottery, and Risacher will make an instant impact for them on the court. Risacher played three seasons of professional basketball in France, debuting at just 16 years old for ASVEL. His strengths come from the catch and shoot, which could work nicely with Trae Young’s passing vision. Risacher lacks the shot creation ability himself. However, when he gets the ball open behind the arc, he will usually knock it down. He has the potential to develop into a player like Klay Thompson or even James Harden, but the lack of defensive work from Risacher is worrying. In short, he is a great complementary player on the Hawks. But at this moment, it’s hard to ever see him leading a team to a deep playoff run where he is the creator. 

Atlanta made a few other moves, trading away AJ Griffin and letting Saddiq Bey walk in free agency. They picked up David Roddy and Cody Zeller to fill in the holes, but there is no doubt this team got worse in the offseason. Their future is bright, but they still have a ways to go before they are competing for an NBA title. 

Atlanta Hawks Season Expectations

The Hawks are in an interesting position this season. They have a bright new rookie in Risacher, but also lost one of their two best players with Murray. Trae Young is always near the top of the NBA assists race, and he can make his teammates better by giving them confidence boosting open jump shots. His lob pass with Clint Capela will always get the fans out of their seats, but the realistic supporters of this team know their ceiling is quite low. If Trae Young stays on the court, the Hawks can absolutely reach the play-in tournament once again. However, the priority after selecting a player like Risacher, and hoarding draft picks, is clearly on the future, and developing their core will be the primary focus this year. 

Atlanta Hawks Schedule Breakdown

The Hawks open up the season at home, with 6 of their first 9 games tipping off at State Farm Arena. Their first five games are against the Nets, Hornets, Thunder, and a back-to-back against the Wizards. A hot start for Atlanta could boost their aspirations this season. Their longest road trip of the year spans across New Years, with a 6-game trip scheduled. Three road games in four nights against the Nuggets, Lakers, and Clippers will probably be defeats, but the Hawks have a pretty manageable schedule overall. 

Atlanta Hawks Odds

The Hawks are expected to have their worst season in years and have a win total of just 36.5 wins. Atlanta has finished inside the top 10 in the East for four straight seasons, and their +180 odds to make the playoffs imply that streak could be in jeopardy. The loss of Murray is not offset by the arrival of Risacher. And considering they secured only 36 wins last year, this total still feels a bit high. Atlanta will be unable to compete when Young is having an off-night, and they will not have the consistency needed to beat the middle of the pack NBA teams. In the NBA Cup, the Hawks are +2000 to win a group featuring the Celtics, Cavaliers, Bulls, and Wizards. Any talk of a title in Atlanta would be quite far-fetched, as the Hawks have the 22nd best odds to win the championship at +40000 to do so. 

2024-25 Atlanta Hawks Predictions and Best Bets

The fact the Hawks won the draft lottery will set them up nicely for the future, but the season expectations this year are low. Their 36.5 win total is significantly lower than the last few years, and the Hawks will finish under the total, in the 33-49 range. Young will occasionally be able to put on a show and steal a victory, but expecting them to consistently do so is unrealistic. While the Under on their win total is my favorite bet to make, if you really want to take a shot with the Hawks, the NBA Cup is where to do so. The +2000 odds for them to win the group feel a little high, as the Hawks should be able to beat the Bulls and Wizards, leaving the Cavs and Celtics as the primary threats. Atlanta has the benefit of hosting the Cavaliers, which should keep the moneyline odds of that matchup quite close. A road game against the Celtics will be a difficult upset to pull off, but there is always a chance a 3-1 record could top the group. I don’t love it, but the +2000 odds offer plenty of upside for the Hawks, which is not a phrase you’ll hear often surrounding this team. 

Top Pick: Atlanta Hawks Under 36.5 Wins: -110

Pick: Atlanta Hawks to Win NBA Cup Group C: +2000

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