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2024 Atlanta Falcons Predictions with Odds to Win the Super Bowl

by Ryan Cobbett - 7/29/2024

Atlanta Falcons predictions Kirk Cousins

Last season was one to forget for the Atlanta Falcons, as they ended the year losing four of their last five games and ultimately missing out on the chance to win the division. Playing in one of the worst divisions in the NFL has helped Atlanta be on the cusp of the playoffs for many years, but they have failed to make it to the postseason, as their last playoff appearance was in 2017. Atlanta desperately needs to improve on its 7-10 mark so they can end their playoff drought.

As a unit, the Falcons offense was a below average group last season, as they averaged just 18.9 PPG. They ranked 17th in yards per game, and their -12 turnover differential was tied for the second worst mark in the NFL. Despite having some pieces around him, Desmond Ridder struggled as the Falcons Quarterback last season. Atlanta averaged just 207 passing yards per game, while Ridder threw 12 interceptions and fumbled the ball six times while scoring just 17 total touchdowns. Ridder ranked 25th in passing touchdowns and 21st in passing yards. They ranked in the Top 10 in rushing yards a season ago thanks in large part to rookie Bijan Robinson, who rushed for 976 yards. Backup Tyler Allgeier was a nice compliment, as the back tallied 683 yards and four touchdowns over 186 carries. Drake London and Kyle Pitts were the two leading receivers on this offense, with London notching 905 receiving yards and Pitts getting 667 yards. Robinson did have four receiving touchdowns giving him a total of eight on the year.

As for the defense, they ranked 11th in yards allowed per game at 321.1 YPG, while allowing 21.9 PPG. They were particularly weak in defending the run game, as they allowed 118.2 rushing yards per game last season and their pass rush was limited to just 42 sacks. Jessie Bates III led the team in tackles with 132, which ranked 18th in the NFL, while recording 11 PDs, six INTs, and forcing three fumbles. Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree were tied for the team lead in sacks with 6.5 each, but it is worth noting they both have moved on to other teams for the 2024/25 season. A.J. Terrell tied Bates III in PDs with 11, while linebackers Kaden Elliss and Nate Landman recorded 110 or more tackles on the season.

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Atlanta Falcons Key Additions/Losses

Campbell and Dupree moving on significantly weakens the pass rush for the Falcons, but the losses do add on. Jonnu Smith is another big loss for the Falcons, as he ranked third on the team in receiving yards with 582 and three touchdowns. Ridder has been shipped to Arizona, flex guy Cordarrelle Patterson is now in Pittsburgh, and cornerback Jeff Okudah is now in Houston.

Despite the losses, the Falcons improved their roster with some key offensive additions. Kirk Cousins signed a huge contract with the Falcons and will look to lead this team back to the playoffs. He was joined by wideouts Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, who should pair nicely with Drake London. Mooney is a former 1,000-yard receiver and could return to form with a consistent QB in Cousins, something he didn’t have in his last years in Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons New Kids on the Block

The Falcons had eight picks in the 2024 draft and made a head-scratching pick with their first-round selection as they took gunslinger Michael Penix Jr. just days after signing Cousins. They spent their next four picks on defensive players to try and bolster the pass rush. Most notable of those selections is edge rusher Bralen Trice, who recorded seven sacks and 49 tackles last season with the Washington Huskies. Defensive Tackle Ruke Orhorhoro is another interesting prospect for the Falcons as he recorded a sub 4.9 40 at the combine and can play all over the line will likely see some time on at the ends.

Atlanta Falcons X-Factors

The Pass Game- With Cousins as the new QB in town and Mooney playing opposite of London, this offense suddenly looks competitive. Robinson will continue to develop in the backfield, but now the pressure is off as Cousins can open things up in the air, unlike Ridder.

The Division- Atlanta should head into the season as the favorites for the NFC South, but they will benefit from a repeat year of mediocrity out of its NFC South counterparts. Carolina is going to be bad again, and Tampa Bay and New Orleans are expected to decline from a season ago. If Atlanta can find success in their divisional games, this Atlanta team could reach 11 wins and easily lock up the division.

Atlanta Falcons Notable Odds

Super Bowl Winner: +2800

NFC Champion: +110

NFC South Winner: -120

Defensive Rookie of the Year- Bralen Trice: +7500

NFL MVP- Kirk Cousins: +3000

NFL Coach of the Year- Raheem Morris: +1000

Atlanta Falcons Schedule Breakdown

Win Total: 9.5 Games

One can never be too sure when expectations are somewhat high after a switch up of the roster and coaching staff, but the Falcons schedule isn’t exactly difficult thanks to the status of their division. After first glance there are nine games on the schedule that Atlanta should win. And with their win total set at 9.5, the over seems to be a good choice. There are three likely losses on their schedule @ Philadelphia Week 2, vs. Kansas City Week 3, and vs. Dallas Week 9. It does help that two of those likely losses are at home, so they could potentially steal a win, though unlikely. That leaves five toss up games on the schedule. Their opening game against Pittsburgh helps that it’s at home, but these teams are even on paper. Their road games at Tampa and New Orleans could be key games in their division control of the tiebreakers. The other two toss ups are road games in Minnesota and Las Vegas, two teams with losing records from a season ago. A 1-4 record in said toss up games would push them over the projected win total, and only one win is highly unlikely. The Falcons are not yet ready to compete with the league’s best, but they should be crowned as NFC South Champs at seasons end, and from there, anything can happen in the playoffs.

Atlanta Falcons Predictions

It is easy to see Atlanta getting over the 9.5-win total mark with an easy schedule. We have also seen over the years the NFC South winner does not need much more than 10 wins to claim the division, so a futures bet on Atlanta to win the division seems to be a favorable choice. On paper, this is a much better offense than what we have seen in Atlanta, and the only piece in question is the defense’s pass rush ability. Now that Atlanta can pace almost every team in the NFL, they will not need to rely as heavily on their defense. Atlanta will reach 10+ wins, win the division, but it stops there as they are still a tier behind the league’s best.

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