2024 Atlanta Braves Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/4/2024

Summary of Last Season

Last season had a horrific ending if you are an Atlanta Braves fan, as they were once again dominated by the Phillies and suffered the same fate in back-to-back years. After picking up 104 wins and dominating their division opponents, the Braves would go on to lose 3-1 in the first round as the bats disappeared with the dreadful baseball bye week. However, Ronald Acuna took home the MVP after the first 40-70 campaign in the history of the sport, so it wasn’t all bad for Braves fans.

Acuna’s phenomenal year can be explained by his 8.1 WAR, which was third in the MLB last season and only 2.3 wins behind hitter and pitcher Shohei Ohtani. Acuna slashed .337/.416/.596, while tallying 106 RBIs, 41 homeruns, 73 stolen bases, and posted a 1.012 OPS out of the leadoff spot. His support cast was right there with him. Matt Olson clubbed 54 homeruns and racked up 139 RBIs while also raising his batting average to .281. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies were solid contributors, as the two combined for 70 homeruns and 206 RBIs, while Marcell Ozuna reached the 40 homerun, 100 RBI marks as well in a career year. Eddie Rosario and Sean Murphy also passed 20 homeruns each, while three other players had double-digit homerun totals. The Brave’s lineup was statistically one of the best ever as they ranked first in homeruns (by 58), first in runs (by 66), first in hits (by 73), and first in OPS.

The pitching wasn’t the strength in the regular season but was the only thing that kept the Braves from getting totally dismantled by the Phillies in the postseason. Spencer Strider led the rotation by posting a 3.4 WAR as he went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in a team leading 186.2 innings. He also posted a league-leading 281 strikeouts and an elite 13.5 K/9 ratio. Things get a little shaky after that. Bryce Elder had an All-Star first half but then completely collapsed in the second half when he posted a +5.00 ERA. Charlie Morton had a good season, going 14-12 across 30 starts with a solid 3.64 ERA. Max Fried was also good but was limited to only 77.2 innings thanks to an injury. Out of the bullpen, Raisel Iglesias led the way with 33 saves and a 2.75 ERA.

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Atlanta Braves Key Additions/Losses

The Braves largely remained intact, with just a few losses from their supporting cast from a season ago. Kevin Pillar, Jesse Chavez, Kirby Yates, Collin McHugh, Eddie Rosario, and Brad Hand are all gone. The Braves were busy this offseason clearing some room on their 40-man roster and traded away Michael Soroka, Nicky Lopez, Jared Shuster to the White Sox, Vaughn Grissom to the Red Sox, and Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson to the Royals. They would then non-tender Michael Tonkin, Angel Perdomo, and Yonny Chirinos.

However, Atlanta did add some solid players. They took a chance on former top prospect, Jarred Kelenic, as well as adding reliever Aaron Bummer. The Braves also brought in utility guys in David Fletcher and Luis Guillorme as well as flamethrower Reynaldo Lopez. But there was no bigger move than acquiring Chris Sale from Boston to form a solid top three in the rotation if he, Strider, and Fried stay healthy.

Atlanta Braves Prospect Outlook

After ranking dead last in the MLB last year, the Braves farm system has improved. However, there isn’t a pressing need for the Braves prospects to have an immediate impact. AJ Smith-Shawver (1st), Darius Vines (9th), Dylan Dodd (18th), and Allan Winans (28th) are all arms that will provide depth in the rotation. Hurston Waldrep (2nd) is another power arm to remember, as he has climbed the minor league ranks and is dominating in camp.

Atlanta Braves X-Factors

Starting Rotation Health- The biggest thing for the Braves this season will be the durability of their rotation. Chris Sale and Max Fried are injury prone, while Charlie Morton is in his age 40 season. Spencer Strider will be counted on the lead the way again, but an injury to the other arms and the rotation could be in shambles.

Front Office- Alex Anthopoulos is always a wild card. With plenty of tricks up his sleeve, it will be interesting to see how he handles his pending free agents in Fried and reliever AJ Minter. The Braves will be in the thick of things. However, will Anthopoulos decide to move his former all-stars and what will the return be?

Atlanta Braves Expectations

Another World Series win. Atlanta won their first ring in a long time in 2021, but the path to get there was anything but easy. They had the worst record of any playoff team that year but somehow managed to claim the title even without Ronald Acuna. Now they have been completely embarrassed by the Phillies in the last two years, as Philadelphia has knocked them out early, despite higher seeds. The Braves added Sale to form a rotation that, in the playoffs, can hang with anyone. However, the Dodgers put together a video game roster after a whirlwind of an offseason, so the Braves may get creative as they try and make another run at a ring.

Atlanta Braves Notable Odds:

World Series Champions- +450

Pennant Winners- +250

Division Winners- -290

NL MVP- Ronald Acuna- +500

NL MVP- Matt Olson- +1200

NL Cy Young- Spencer Strider- +500

NL Cy Young- Max Fried- +1200

Atlanta Braves Predictions

A world series victory. Though the NL East and the Dodgers got tougher, I think the Braves are still the class of the league. They will need their rotation to stay healthy and they may add a few more pieces as the season goes on, but the lineup from top to bottom will once again be otherworldly. They will win around 100 games this season and will avoid an early exit. Let the books favor Los Angeles, as the Braves provide great value at +450.

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Start:	November 17, 2024 @ 12:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2024 Atlanta Braves Predictions with World Series Odds and Season Win Total Picks

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