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2024-25 Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 10/23/2024

Arkansas Razorbacks basketball predictions Makhi Mitchell

Arkansas fans were disappointed last season after the Razorbacks limped through conference play. The season started with false hope, as Arkansas beat #7 Duke, but disaster soon followed. Their win against Duke was their lone win against an AP Top 25 team. They finished the regular season going 15-16 and 6-12 in conference play. In their limited postseason action, the Razorbacks beat Vanderbilt in the first round of the Southeastern Conference Tournament in a thrilling 90-85 OT win. However, the excitement was not long as they lost to South Carolina by 14 in the following round.

Tramon Mark led the Razorbacks in scoring as the guard averaged 16.2 PPG while also leading the team with 1.2 SPG. Khalif Battle was the only other Razorback to average double-digit points as he recorded 14.8 PPG. In limited time, Makhi Mitchell shot 63.5% from the floor which was by far the best on the team as he averaged 8.6 PPG in just 18.8 minutes per game. Mitchell was one of just two Arkansas players to play in all 33 games. As a team, they ranked sixth in the conference, as they averaged 77.8 PPG while shooting 45.3% as a team. They ranked last in the conference in creating second chance opportunities and shot just 31.8% from deep. Their defensive play wasn’t any better. They ranked 13th in the conference in PPG, allowing nearly 80 PPG. Opponents shot 33.9% from beyond the arc showing the Razorbacks inability to defend the perimeter.

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Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Key Additions/Losses

The losses were plentiful for the Razorbacks, but minimal compared to who they brought in. After leading his Razorbacks in scoring, Tramon Mark left for Austin to join the Texas Longhorns. Other Arkansas departures included their second leading scorer Khalif Battle (Gonzaga), as well as role players Davonte Davis (Oklahoma State), Layden Blocker (DePaul), and Baye Fall (Kansas State).

There is perhaps no bigger addition or arrival in college hoops than John Calipari jumping ship at Kentucky and going to Arkansas to headline their NIL Era. And what was the first thing Calipari did? He brought in the top transfer class in the nation. First, Calipari brought D.J. Wagner (9.9 PPG), Zvonimir Ivisic (7-foot-2), and Adou Thiero (7.2 PPG, 5 RPG) from Kentucky. Joining the Wildcat trio is grad transfer Johnell Davis, who was one of the best scorers in the nation, as the guard shot 41.4% from beyond the arc and averaged 18.2 PPG as well as forward Jonas Aidoo, who averaged 11.4 PPG and 7.3 RPG with Tennessee last season. Calipari is also bringing in four new high school recruits, as he signed four-stars Boogie Fland (22nd nationally), Karter Knox (25th nationally), and Billy Richmond (27th nationally) as well as three-star Casmir Chavis (171st nationally).

Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball X-Factors

Early SEC Games- After a relatively easy nonconference schedule, the Razorbacks will begin conference play with three straight games against AP Top 25 teams. They begin with a road trip to #12 Tennessee, before returning home to play host #24 Ole Miss and #21 Florida. After their three games against ranked teams, they will then travel to LSU and Missouri. That’s a tough start.

Road Games- Arkansas has six games against AP Top 25 teams on the road this season. Last year, the Razorbacks were terrible away from home as they went 2-7. One of those wins was against Missouri, who didn’t win a conference game. The new regime will need to flip that script and find a way to win on the road. If they don’t, the Razorbacks will be headed for another disappointing season.

Johnell Davis- Davis had a solid career with Florida Atlantic and will now look to see if his ability will translate to the Southeastern conference. He shot over 41% from deep last season and has been a reliable free-throw shooter, shooting 84.5% throughout his career. Davis also carries a career FG% of 48%. Davis will now have to mesh with a new starting five while consistently facing better competition. We all know his ceiling, but will he be able to produce all year against tougher foes?

Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Notable Games

Home- #24 Ole Miss, #21 Florida, #2 Alabama, #19 Texas

Away/Neutral- #8 Baylor, Illinois, #12 Tennessee, #23 Kentucky, #19 Texas, #13 Texas A&M, #11 Auburn

Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +4000

Final Four: +950

Conference Winner: +1500

Wooden Award: Johnell Davis - +4000

AP Top 25- 16th

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 13th

KenPom- 25th

Arkansas Razorbacks Basketball Predictions

There is a lot of change around this program with a new leader and a reshaped roster. Calipari wanted to lead a team who was able to get aggressive in the transfer portal, and he didn’t disappoint, bringing in the top transfer class. Grabbing talented vets in Davis and Aidoo was big for Calipari, but the depth on this roster might not be good enough to make Arkansas a legit contender this season. They have great value at +4000 to win the championship, as they have the star power and coach to do so, and you could parlay that with Davis winning the Wooden Award, also at +4000, as Davis would have to have an MVP caliber season if Arkansas were to have a good season. However, I think the Razorbacks are the most overhyped team heading into the new campaign and they will be humbled in conference play.

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