Angel of Empire Odds to Win the 2023 Kentucky Derby with Expert Predictions

by Joey House - 4/28/2023

Angel of Empire odds to win the Kentucky Derby

I love losers! Crazy to say, I know, but losers make the task of picking winners that much easier. When I start to handicap big races like the Kentucky Derby, I instantly try to spot losers, so the field of possible winners is smaller. What I am left with is a much smaller pool of probable winners, which makes handicapping large field races much easier.

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One horse that is firmly in that pool of probable winners is Angel of Empire. From finishing the final 3/8 of a mile in his final prep race in 38 seconds or less, to winning his last time out, Angel of Empire figures to be a major factor in the race.

Last Race: Going off as the second choice in the Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire ran an expertly-designed race. He got a clean and quick start out of the gates and settled in 7th position but well within striking distance. Jockey Flavien Prat wisely elected to follow the favorite Rocket Can when he started to make his move. Angel was 4 wide going into the last turn. And as they entered the final stretch, he was very much in command. A superior performance.

Prior experience: He won his MSW last August at the Horshoe Indianapolis. A month later, he entered an allowance at Kentucky Downs and performed poorly, finishing 6th. Returning to the Horshoe in November, he eradicated the previous loss with a return trip to the winner's circle. His next race was the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on New Year's Day. And while he finished second to his stablemate Victory Formation, he once again ran an intelligent race. He went to the Fairgrounds in February for the (G2) Risen Star, switching jockeys from Joe Talamo to Luis Saez, and he avenged his loss by winning this graded stakes race, beating Victory Formation as well as a number of his current Derby opponents. His last race was the above Arkansas Derby.

Trainer: The top-earning trainer in North America this year, Brad Cox will try to get what would technically be his 2nd Derby win, his first coming in 2021 with Mandaloun's win following Medina Spirit's disqualification. He'll have multiple chances this year since besides Angel of Empire, he'll be running Verifying, Hit Show, and Jace's Road.

Jockey: Originally riding a horse that beat Angel of Empire (Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones), Prat was selected to change mounts to the stronger horse. Since moving from France to race full-time in North America, Prat will also be looking for his first legit win in the Derby, as he piloted Country House to a 2nd-place finish that was elevated to first by the disqualification of Maximum Security for interference.

Breeding: This is another area where Angel of Empire shines through, as he is one of only two other horses to receive an A++ Equineline Pedigree rating (interestingly enough, the other 2 horses both have Brad Cox as their trainer). He is the bay son of Classic Empire, who was a multiple graded-stakes winner and runner-up in the 2017 Preakness and has already produced foals that have career winnings north of $8.5 million. Damsire Armony's Angel is less impressive, with no wins in her eight career races. However, she is part of the Seattle Slew lineage on both sides of her family. Angel of Empire's lineage is incredibly impressive and is proven by not only his wins but that of his half-brothers as well.

Odds: Angel of Empire is currently tied with Tapit Trice as the second lowest odds at 8-1. This suits Angel of Empire just fine, as he has had all of his success outside of the betting favorite.

Prediction: Angel of Empire is an intriguing contender whose stalking running style is so dangerous in wide-open races. He's been impressive sitting behind the pace and then making a strong move into the stretch. I expect him to be in the mix to the very end and wouldn't be surprised in the least if he wound up in the winner's circle. He'll definitely be in the pool for my exotics and also place a W/P/S wager on him.

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