2023 American League Pennant Odds and Betting Predictions

by Matt Zitt - 5/4/2023

American League pennant predictions Connor Wong Boston Red Sox

After a month of Major League Baseball in the books, there have been teams dramatically outperforming expectations. Whether it has been the lineup, rotation, bullpen, or a combination of all three, these teams seem poised to make a deep run in October. The Astros and Yankees have been sluggish and dealing with injuries. Teams like the Rangers and Rays have caught spectators by surprise. We will analyze below which teams might be the best bets to go to the World Series out of the American League.

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Tampa Bay Rays +330

The Rays have been firing on all cylinders out the gate, which is evident from their 24-6 record. The Rays were expected to pitch well in 2023, but even the best baseball minds could not have predicted how dominant this team’s offense has been. The organization made no notable additions to the offense in the offseason. Last year it ranked 21st in the league. Jump to May of 2023, the Rays lead the league in runs per game and have 10 players who hit at least four homers to start the year. Led by the likes of Wonder Franco, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, amongst others, Tampa looks like they are World Series or bust out the gate.

Toronto Blue Jays +550

There is no shortage of offensive fire power in this lineup. Names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Whit Merrifield, and Kevin Kiermaier can get any pitcher rattled. Oh, and Matt Chapman is coming off AL Player of the Month honors after leading all hitters in OPS (1.152), wRC+ (219), and fWAR (2.0). The question going forward will be if the pitching can hold up over the course of the next six months. Alek Manoah has been inconsistent along with the bullpen. This team is a trade away for a starting pitcher at the deadline from being very lethal once August and September hits.

Texas Rangers +1200

Baseball experts agreed at the start of the season that the Texas Rangers playoff hopes would most likely hinge on the rotation. They dished out tons of money to Jacob deGrom, Andrew Heaney, Nathan Eovaldi, and Martin Perez in free agency. But the main reason for Texas’ hot start has been the offense. Despite losing star shortstop Corey Seager to a strained hamstring, the Rangers’ offense has been one of the best. Jonah Heim, Josh Jung, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Nathaniel Lowe have combined for 28 homers, 115 RBIs, and a 133 wRC+ so far. Once October hits, it helps to have an ace of deGrom’s caliber.

Boston Red Sox +3500

Another April surprise comes from the AL East and the 17-14 Boston Red Sox. Boston looked awful to start after getting swept at home by the Pittsburgh Pirates and then getting swept in a four-game set down in Tampa Bay. They have gone 12-6 since the trip at the Trop, and the offense has as much pop as any team in the league. Getting productivity from young guys like Jarren Duran and Connor Wong has given this team optimism. Wong now has three home runs and eight RBIs in his past 10 games, along with a .433 batting average over that period. Duran was called up to replace an injured Adam Duvall and his hit .396 since joining the club. Like the Blue Jays, pitching can be a downfall and they will also look to improve before the trade deadline.

To win the AL Pennant: Toronto Blue Jays +550

Value Picks: Texas Rangers +1200, Boston Red Sox +3500

Teams I am fading: Astros and Yankees

AL Pennant Odds

Tampa Bay Rays +330

Houston Astros +360

Toronto Blue Jays +550

New York Yankees +550

Minnesota Twins +900

Texas Rangers +1200

Cleveland Guardians +1700

Seattle Mariners +1800

Los Angeles Angels +1900

Baltimore Orioles +3000

Boston Red Sox +3500

Chicago White Sox +8000

Detroit Tigers +20000

Kansas City Royals +20000

Oakland Athletics +50000

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2023 American League Pennant Odds and Betting Predictions

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