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2025 Alternate Super Bowl Lines can Maximize Betting Profits

by Spencer Toth - 2/5/2025

Alternate Super Bowl lines Xavier Worthy Kansas City Chiefs

All across the world, you will find people talking about who will cover the spread and whether or not the total will go over the line. While betting on the standard spread (Chiefs -1.5) and total (48.5 points) can certainly be profitable, you may be leaving money on the table. Sportsbooks will not advertise alternate spreads and totals, but almost every book offers a unique set of odds for each margin of victory. You could take Kansas City to stay within single digits with +9.5 at -500 odds or you could take them to win by double digits with +280 odds on -9.5. The options are limitless, and the use of alternate lines and totals can be one of the most effective ways to stay ahead of the sportsbooks. 

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What are Alternate Lines?

The standard spread is the number at which sportsbooks expect an even amount of money to be wagered on each side at -110 odds. For example, if the spread was Kansas City -20.5 evenly juiced to -110 odds, sportsbooks would see the money start flooding in on the Eagles at +20.5, not that this would ever happen. As of writing, the spread is -1.5 points for the Kansas City Chiefs. This means sportsbooks expect a relatively even amount of money to be wagered on the Chiefs to win by two or more points, and the Eagles to win by any number or lose by a single point. Alternate lines allow you to manipulate the spreads and odds to your liking. 

One of the most common terms used regarding alternate lines is ‘buying points’. Buying points is when you voluntarily reduce the odds from -110 to a less profitable number in the hopes of increasing your likelihood of winning. NFL games aren’t evenly distributed in terms of margin of victory which creates key numbers for bettors to exploit. An incredible 15% of NFL games finish with exactly a three point margin of victory, while only 4% finish by exactly two points. This means the difference between a +1.5 and +2.5 spread doesn’t hold much weight, but a jump from +2.5 to +3.5 adds a significant percentage of NFL score lines to the underdogs spread. Buying points with the Philadelphia Eagles will be a popular selection, as you can alter the line to +3.5 with -175 odds. 

How are Alternate Lines Used at the 2025 Super Bowl?

Alternate lines can be a very powerful tool for sports bettors and will certainly be profitable at the 2025 Super Bowl. We have already spoken about buying points, but an even more powerful tool with alternate lines is selling points. You need to win 52.4% of the time to break even on the standard -110 lines. However, if you can find a way to increase the odds to +110, you now only have to win 47.6% of your bets to break even. Buying points can make you feel better about your chances at winning any specific game but are often not profitable in the long run. Taking a look at the +3.5 line for the Eagles at -175 odds is a good example. There will be rare occasions that the Eagles lose by exactly 2 or 3 points, making the jump from +1.5 to +3.5 crucial. However, you now have to win more than 63% of your bets at -175 odds to break even, which is difficult to maintain. 

Selling points up to key numbers is a great way to use alternate lines at the 2025 Super Bowl. Only four margins of victory occur 5% of the time or more, and that is 3,6,7, and 10. The Kansas City Chiefs are -1.5 point favorites, but you can confidently alter the spread to -2.5 at +100 odds, or even -5.5 at +170 odds. It may feel daunting to reduce the likelihood your bet winning, but you now only have to win 37% of your bets to make money at +170 odds. 

While altering the favorites lines can pay dividends, doing so with the underdog can be an even better strategy. Keeping in mind that very few games finish with a 1 or 2 point margin of victory, taking the Eagles -2.5 at +115 odds is a great pick to make. Most of the time, if the Eagles don’t cover the -2.5 point spread, they will also not be covering the +1.5 point spread. By staying ahead of key numbers with alternate spreads, you can maximize your long term profits gained by sports betting. 

Can You Use Alternate Lines on Totals?
The short answer is yes. Alternate lines are not limited to just the spread, as alternate totals can be another great option at the Super Bowl. Just like spreads, there are key numbers that NFL games finish with more often than others due to their unique scoring system. A 41 point total is the most common at 3.8%, but 42 points is the 30th most common number with just 1.52% of games ending with that exact total. Key numbers are slightly less important with totals than with spreads, but can still play a massive factor in alternate line decision making. It is unwise to alter the total by too many points. The 48.5 total is close to key numbers, but taking the standard Over at -110 odds when you can take Over 50.5 at +115 is not a profitable course of action. Totals of 49 and 50 points are both outside the top 10 in frequency, and you can safely boost your odds with a relatively low risk of being burned as a result. 

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