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2024 Alternate Super Bowl Lines can Maximize Betting Profits

by Spencer Toth - 2/7/2024

Super Bowl alternate lines Isiah Pacheco Kansas City Chiefs

The most popular form of Super Bowl betting is on standard spreads and totals, but the standard -110 bet is not always the most profitable course of action. All over the Internet, picks and predictions will be posted using the standard (-2) spread in favor of the 49ers, and Over/Under picks at the 47.5 line available. The broadcast will talk about it, it will be all over X (formerly Twitter), and there will be no shortage of experts weighing in with their opinions. However, by limiting your potential future bets to the posted spread, you could be leaving valuable dollars on the table.

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For example, if the Kansas City Chiefs on the spread with the +2 line at -110 odds is your best bet of the year, you may be tempted to wager several units to increase the profit. A 5-Unit bet would profit 4.5 Units, but there may be a safer option to secure the same profit. If you were instead to bet the Chiefs at (-2.5) with +130 odds, you would only need to lay down 3.4 Units to potentially earn the same 4.5 Unit payout a 5-Unit bet on the spread would earn. By keeping the extra 1.6 Units in your pocket, chasing a big payout on the Chiefs suddenly became significantly cheaper. NFL games rarely finish with 1- or 2-point margins, with the last Super Bowl to do so coming all the way back in 1991. This ensures our extra payout is unlikely to cost us a winner, as if the Chiefs cover the +2 spread, they will probably be covering the -2.5-point spread too.

Sticking with the Chiefs, there are dozens of alternate lines to choose from. If you expect anything but a blowout, you could take the Chiefs all the way up to (+22) on the spread at -2500 odds. Of course, you would need to wager more than 100 units to possibly earn the same 4.5 Unit profit, but safe alternate spreads can sometimes be effective parlay stuffers, whether it’s a same game Super Bowl parlay, or a cross-sport betslip. Alternatively, if you are confident the Chiefs will be able to make this one look easy, you could grab them at (-18) at +1000 odds and need to wager less than half a unit to potentially earn the aforementioned 4.5 Units of profit. There are many ways to attack Super Bowl lines. And with a plethora of options available on most sports books, make sure you carefully evaluate each possible line at their respective odds before laying down your hard-earned cash.

There are a few storylines heading into this one, and one glaring fact that cannot be ignored is the sheer number of blowouts San Francisco has found themselves in throughout the season. The 49ers won 12 games in the regular season, and every single one was by 7 or more points, while they finished with an 0-3 record in games decided by 6 points or fewer. A big San Francisco win or a close Chiefs victory appears to be on the cards, so it makes sense to bet accordingly.

The term ‘buying points’ is one that gets thrown around a lot in the sports betting world. The term was coined in an attempt to prevent ‘bad beats,’ when losing by a single point or the hook. Bettors will reduce or increase spreads in an attempt to increase their chances at winning. However, in the long run, it’s rarely a good idea. Going back to the Chiefs, a popular alternate spread will certainly be (+3.5) at -160 odds, as if the Chiefs lose by a field goal, the bet will still cash. While losing a standard (+2) spread bet by 3 points will sting, leaving profits on the table will hurt even more. With -110 odds bets, you need to convert at least 52.4% of the time to break even. However, at -160 odds to grab the (+3.5), you need to cash the bet a whopping 61.5% of the time to break even. By playing it safe at buying points, you’re telling the sportsbooks that you believe the 49ers will win by exactly 2 or 3 points at least 9% of the time and are willing to pay big money for a little insurance. This is rarely a long-term profitable endeavor. Therefore, unless you’re planning on sticking the alternate spread into a parlay, just stick to the standard price. Changing the odds won’t save a bad bet. Therefore, if you’re not confident in the Chiefs at (+2), don’t pretend like they are suddenly a sure thing at (+3.5).

Instead, go in the other direction. I already touched on why Chiefs (-2.5) at +130 odds is a good bet (44% breakeven percentage), but the best alternate lines are on the 49ers. The Chiefs secondary is the real difference-maker on defense. Therefore, if the 49ers get an early lead, we could certainly see them abuse the run game and increase their lead even further. The (-6.5) and (-13.5) point spreads at +175 and +450 odds, respectively, are very tempting, especially considering the frequency of which the 49ers won big throughout the season. While you won’t get the winning feeling many sports bettors are chasing as frequently, but ensuring when you do win, it makes up for recent losses and then some, you can vastly improve your chances at churning a profit on Sunday evening.

In addition to the spreads, we can also fiddle with the total to increase our chances. This is the lowest total in the last 8 years at 47.5, and it may be profitable to take it even lower. These are two teams with extremely strong defenses that sometimes get overshadowed by their flashy toys on offense. Instead of playing the Under at 47.5 with -110 odds, why not give the books another touchdown back, and play Under 40.5 at +240 odds. Only one Super Bowl in the last 16 years has finished between 41 and 47 points, making the much juicer price at 40.5 all the more tempting. Whether it’s a 24-7 blowout, or a 17-13 defensive battle, I’d be much more confident in the total staying Under 40.5 the 30% of the time needed to breakeven at +240 odds, rather than the 52.4% of the time needed at standard -110 odds.

The market of alternate Super Bowl lines is one that should be deeply explored, as while a few percentage points in either direction may not feel game changing, it is absolutely critical you’re not potentially leaving even a few dollars on the table. Rather than increasing your unit size, consider increasing the payout potential on Sunday evening, by targeting juicy plus money prices for very similar outcomes.

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