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2024-25 Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Predictions and Odds to Win the National Championship

by Ryan Cobbett - 11/1/2024

Alabama Crimson Tide basketball predictions Mark Sears

The Crimson Tide’s 2023-24 basketball season started off incredibly mild, as they opened the season going just 6-5 while losing three straight games to ranked teams. After limping through their nonconference schedule, Alabama would flip a switch and dominate their conference opponents. They went on to finish 13-5 in the Southeastern Conference while going 21-10 overall in the regular season. They did struggle against ranked teams, even in conference play, as they went 2-7 against them. After a solid performance during the regular season, Alabama was knocked off in their first game in the conference tournament, as they lost to Florida by 14. They were given the 4-Seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament and would cruise through their first two rounds as they beat 13-Seed Charleston and 12-Seed Grand Canyon by double-digits. They would then take down 1-Seed North Carolina in the Sweet 16, beating them by two, and then they would go on to beat 6-Seed Clemson by seven points in the Elite Eight. Unfortunately for the Crimson Tide, their season would end in the Final Four, as UConn beat them by 14.

The Tide led the conference and country in PPG, as they averaged 90.1 PPG, and they shot 47.6% as a team. They were second in conference with a 37.3% 3P% while finishing third with 12.8 offensive RPG. Their defense, however, was terrible. They allowed a conference most 81.2 PPG to their opponents last season. However, despite their poor defensive play, their +5.5% 3P% differential was the second-best mark in the conference. Mark Sears led the team with 21.5 PPG last season, which also ranked 11th in the conference. Aaron Estrada finished second on the team with 13.4 PPG while also leading the team with 4.6 APG. Grant Nelson (11.9 PPG) and Rylan Griffen (11.2 PPG) were the other two Crimson Tide players to average double-digit points last season.

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Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Key Additions/Losses

The Crimson Tide lost some key players over the course of the offseason. After finishing second on the team in points, Estrada went to the NBA. In addition to his departure, Griffen transferred out of the program to Kansas, Davin Cosby (7.8 MPG) transferred to Wake Forest, Kris Parker transferred to Villanova, Sam Walters (5.4 PPG) transferred to Michigan, Mohamed Wague transferred to Oklahoma, and Nick Pringle (6.8 PPG) left for conference rival South Carolina.

Despite all the losses, the Crimson Tide put together one of the best transfer classes during the course of the offseason as they retooled their roster. Their biggest addition of the offseason was center Clifford Omoruyi, who averaged 10.4 PPG and 8.3 APG with Rutgers last season while shooting 51.2% from the floor. Joining Omoruyi is big time scorer Chris Youngblood, who is coming over from South Florida after averaging 15.3 PPG and shooting over 41% from deep last season. Houston Mallette is also transferring to Alabama from Pepperdine, where he averaged 14.7 PPG while also shooting over 41% from deep. Aden Holloway rounds out the transfer class, with the sophomore guard coming from rival Auburn after averaging 7.3 PPG. In addition to the quartet of transfers, Alabama also signed four high school recruits. Their recruiting class is headlined by five-star forward Derrion Reid (17th nationally). In addition to Reid, they signed three four-star players in Aiden Sherrell (32nd nationally), Labaron Philon (34th nationally), and Naas Cunningham (44th nationally).

Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball X-Factors

Performance Against Ranked Teams- The Crimson Tide have 16 ranked teams on their schedule heading into the season. They play five ranked teams as a part of their nonconference schedule and will play 11 conference games against ranked teams. This was an area that the Tide struggled with last season, going 2-7 against ranked teams. With an increase of ranked opponents featured on the schedule, and with the majority coming within the conference, the Tide need to figure out how to win these games if they want to think about a conference title.

Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Notable Games

Home- #15 Creighton, #24 Ole Miss, #11 Auburn, #23 Kentucky, #21 Florida

Away/Neutral- #14 Purdue, Illinois, #4 Houston, #25 Rutgers, #9 UNC, #13 Texas A&M, #23 Kentucky, #16 Arkansas, #19 Texas, @12 Tennessee, #11 Auburn

Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Key Odds:

NCAA Champion: +1200

Final Four: +240

Conference Winner: +220

Wooden Award: Mark Sears- +700

Wooden Award: Grant Nelson- +10000

Wooden Award: Clifford Omoruyi- +10000

Wooden Award: Chris Youngblood- +25000

AP Top 25- 2nd

Andy Katz’s Power 37- 1st

KenPom- 4th

Alabama Crimson Tide Basketball Predictions

The transfer class is incredibly stout on paper, as Youngblood and Omoruyi will slot into the starting five and compliment Sears greatly. Mallette will be dangerous off the bench, and Holloway has a decent ceiling in which his improvements could give the Crimson Tide another dangerous bench weapon. However, they have one of the most loaded schedules. And while wins against ranked opponents is inevitable, they may find themselves in a bind within the conference standings if they can’t find a way to perform improve on their 2-7 record against ranked opponents last season. However, last year is last year, and Alabama has one of the best starting lineups in the game with some dangerous bench weapons. I like the Tide at +240 of reaching the Final Four, and I think Sears at +700 to win the Wooden Award is a solid choice with his new weapons.

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