Docs Website

53 Years Strong! A Trusted Leader In Sports Picks, Best Bets and Predictions Since 1971.

Main Menu

2023 AFC South Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 8/1/2023

AFC South predictions Trevor Lawrence Jacksonville Jaguars

The AFC South has been one of the most interesting divisions over the past decade, with every team winning the division at least one time. This year it looks as though everyone is chasing the Jaguars. Unfortunately for them, jaguars are pretty tough to catch. Follow Docs during the season as their handicappers track everything you need to have a profitable NFL investing season.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC South: +120

AFC Conference: +1200

Super Bowl: +2500

Win Totals (O/U): 9.5

2022: 9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 O/U

The improvement that QB Trevor Lawerence made last season was nothing short of remarkable. Every statistical passing category increased substantially. Lawerence will now get to throw to an extremely capable Calvin Ridley. I also anticipate seeing more two-TE sets with their draft pick of Brenton Strange out of Penn State, a dynamic TE who can not only block but be a dangerous receiving threat. He did lose WR Marvin Jones Jr. The Jaguars were 10th in the league in scoring (23.8 PPG) and in passing yards (3,959 yards). Lawerence was third in the league in interceptions thrown at nine. Even though they won the AFC South last year, Jacksonville finished with a losing ATS record for the 5th consecutive season. The Jags look to end that streak as long as Lawerence continues to improve. I think Jacksonville continues to improve and see them as a double-digit winning team this year. The over looks good, and the division is so weak they win it almost by default.

Tennessee Titans

AFC South: +350

AFC Conference: +5500

Super Bowl: +8000

Win Totals (O/U): 7.5

2022: 7-10 SU, 9-7-1 ATS, 5-12 O/U

The Tennessee Titans were an interesting mix of success and failure last year. Their pass offense was sub-par, with their QBs throwing for only 2,914 yards (after sack yardage was subtracted), which put them in 30th place in the NFL. Their rushing attack was better, gaining 2,131 yards (13th in the NFL) and 16 rushing TDs (11th). Their pass defense mirrored their passing offense, surrendering 4,671 yards through the air, dead last in the NFL, and the passing TDs allowed was 29, which was 4th-worst. Again, their rushing defense was SIGNIFICANTLY better, giving up only 1,307 yards, which lead the NFL. The rushing TDs they surrendered were 9, good enough for the 3rd best in the league. To make matters worse, they lost their top two receiving threats in WR Robert Woods and TE Austin Hooper. Their O/U totals from last season mirror an offense that is strong in the run and weak in the pass, and I don't see any change occurring this season. Whenever you have a running back like Derrick Henry, you're going to be solid. However, everything else around him is sub-standard, at best. I think they'll struggle to get six wins, making their under 7.5-win total a very strong bet.

Indianapolis Colts

AFC South: +550

AFC Conference: +7000

Super Bowl: +10000

Win Totals (O/U): 6.5

2022: 4-12-1 SU, 6-11-0 ATS, 7-10 O/U

The 2022 season that started with such promise ended in a complete disaster, as the Colts, who had a season win total of 10 before the regular season started and were predicted to win the division, won a total of four games last year. The abysmal season cost Frank Reich his job, and his replacement, Jeff Saturday, as well. New head coach Shane Steichen, the former offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, will have his work cut out for him. They reached in the NFL Draft to take QB Anthony Richardson from Florida, and all indications are he's going to be their week 1 starter. Already the league's worst Week 1 team over the past 15 seasons (2-13 SU and 1-13-1 ATS), they're entrusting their offense to a QB whose career completion percentage was only 54.7%. The Colts struggled last year in division games (1-5 ATS), as well as when they were favored (1-6 ATS). They did excel when they had the rest advantage, going 3-1 ATS. The under cashed in 8 of 12 games, for a 66.7% clip. Rookie QBs struggle under good conditions, and there is nothing good about Indy's situation. I think they'll be lucky to beat last year's record and think the under is one of the best bets in the division.

Houston Texans

AFC South: +1000

AFC Conference: +10000

Super Bowl: +200000

Win Totals (O/U): 6.5

2022: 3-13-1 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 7-10 O/U

The team that had won the most AFC South crowns in the past decade has been the worst for the past few seasons. Last year, their season win total was 4.5, and they somehow managed to go under that. They made wholesale changes in the organization, starting with the firing of HC Lovie Smith and replacing him with DeMeco Ryans. They drafted C.J. Stroud with the 2nd-overall pick. They also brought in veteran Case Keenum, who should serve as an excellent mentor. They brought in a plethora of talent but needed to do so because they lost their leading receiver Brandin Cooks, their 3rd receiver in Rex Burkhead, and two tight ends. If they elect to start Stroud the entire season, history suggests they will struggle mightily. While they didn't win many games, they were competitive, going 7-3-1 ATS in games against opponents with equal rest. Their games against conference foes went under 8 out of 12 times. I think the team is headed in the right direction, but expect major growing pains the first year or so under Stroud. The under win total of 6.5 is the play to make here.

Best Bets and AFC South Predictions

Best Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 9.5 wins

Jacksonville Jaguars to win the AFC South +120

Tennessee Titans UNDER 7.5 wins

Indianapolis Colts UNDER 6.5 wins

Houston Texans UNDER 6.5 wins

Divisional Winner

Jacksonville Jaguars +120

Get NFL picks on every single game, or if you want our very best bet premium picks by the experts, sign up for your free $60 account with a guarantee.

 

Most Recent NFL Handicapping

One E-mail A Week Is All You Need!
Our weekly newsletter is loaded with exclusive free picks,insight and advice from our expert handicappers