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2023 AFC North Predictions with Betting Odds and Expert Analysis

by Joey House - 7/31/2023

AFC North predictions Nick Chubb Cleveland Browns

The AFC North is expected to be a hotly contested division this season, with the proposed win totals ranging only from 11.5 wins (Cincinnati) to 8.5 wins (Pittsburgh). This should mean when the temperatures start to plummet in late November and December, the action in the AFC North should just be heating up. Make sure you turn to Docs all season long to see exactly who will come out on top.

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Cincinnati Bengals

AFC North: +150

AFC Conference: +550

Super Bowl: +1100

Win Totals (O/U): 11.5

2022: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U

Cincinnati followed up their Super Bowl loss in impressive fashion, winning the AFC North with a 12-4 record and two playoff wins before falling to the eventual champion Chiefs 23-20 in the AFC Championship. QB Joe Burrow has proven to be as much of a winner in the NFL as he was in college, but it helps when you're throwing to possibly the best trio of receivers in the NFL in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Throw in Joe Mixon at running back, and you have an explosive offense. While he's only been in the league for three seasons, Burrow is already a road warrior, posting an 18-8 (69.2%) ATS mark on the road, which was good enough for a 33.1% ROI. Another trend to keep an eye on is the weather, as the potential for extreme conditions is quite prevalent for the last month of the season. "Joe Brrr" is 7-1 on the ML and 6-2 ATS when the game-time temp is no higher than 35 degrees. Their defense allowed 335.7 YPG (16th in the NFL) but only 20.1 PPG for an impressive 5th-place finish. This is evidenced in the O/U of 6-9-1. If Burrow can stay healthy, they should 3-peat as division champs and mount serious competition for the conference title.

Baltimore Ravens

AFC North: +250

AFC Conference: +1100

Super Bowl: +2200

Win Totals (O/U): 9.5

2022: 10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS, 5-12 O/U

After a successful season that saw them reach the playoffs, the Baltimore Ravens had their own episode of "Roster Drama" with their QB Lamar Jackson. He signed during the spring, and for the free agency finale, they signed one of the most talented, and troubled, free-agent wide receivers, Odell Beckham Jr. Also coming in is journeyman WR Nelson Agholor, and the whole offense will be run by new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. These new pieces should most definitely improve on an offense that averaged 20.6 PPG (19th in the NFL), 28th in yards passing. The offensive strength of the Ravens, as it has been historically, is a ground attack that averaged 160.0 yards per game, second to only the Chicago Bears at 177.3 YPG. One important trend to key on is the Ravens as underdogs. Since 2020, Baltimore is 11-3-1 ATS as an underdog. Last year, they went 4-1-1 in that role. In a bizarre home/away split, they were 7-3 ATS on the road but 1-6-1 ATS at M&T Bank Stadium. They lost a lot on defense and brought in no free agents. If Odell fits in with this offense (a big if), Jackson will have his first viable deep threat to throw to and this could be a fun offense to watch.

Cleveland Browns

AFC North: +375

AFC Conference: +2000

Super Bowl: +3500

Win Totals (O/U): 9.5

2022: 7-10 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, 8-8-1 O/U

This will be the first real season in which GM Andrew Berry's big gamble on QB Deshaun Watson was worth it. Due to the 10-game suspension handed down by the league's front office, last season's ship was already sinking with Watson took command. The Browns did go 3-3 SU and ATS in Watson's 6-game mini-season. The organization added some nice auxiliary pieces to work with Watson, in hopes of bolstering a passing attack that was below average or worse for the past three years. The ground game was a top-10 unit, featuring Nick Chubb and his 1,525 yards and 12 TDs. They did lose RB Kareem Hunt, but his 7.5 carries a game can be absorbed by Chubb and Watson. In another bizarre gambling split, the Browns were 1-6 ATS after a win but 6-3 ATS after a loss. Their defense is getting a significant makeover, starting with the defensive coordinator Joe Woods, who is being replaced by defensive guru Jim Schwartz. Schwartz, who called the defensive plays for the 2017-18 Super Bowl-winning Philadelphia Eagles, is blessed to be working with DE Myles Garrett, who tallied 16 sacks last year. With the expected increase in defensive efficiency, and if the offense played as it did under Watson, they should see their win total jump by 3-4 games. I think Cleveland could be one of the surprise teams of 2023 and see them going over the posted win total with ease.

Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC North: +500

AFC Conference: +2500

Super Bowl: +5000

Win Totals (O/U): 8.5

2022: 9-8 SU, 10-6-1 ATS, 7-10-0 O/U

When the 2022 season began, it was unspoken knowledge that the starting QB Mitchell Trubisky had a very short leash and that the former Pitt Panther Kenny Pickett would take over at some point in the season. That happened after the fourth game of the year, and he earned a 7-5 record as a starter. The Steelers believe they have found a QB they can build around. There was surprisingly little turnover, so the offense that was 26th in scoring (18.1 PPG), 24th in passing (3,411 yards), and 23rd in total offense (5,484 yards) will be starting the 2023 campaign. The Steelers were very good outside of the division, going 7-3-1 against non-AFC North foes. Their defense was solid, allowing only 20.4 PPG, which was 10th in the NFL. This stout unit was a major reason the Steelers' games had an O/U of 2-6 after a win and 4-8 against teams with equal rest. Pittsburgh made very few moves for a team that was rather pedestrian on offense. The defense will be helped by the return of the injured OLB T.J. Watt and the drafting of CB Joey Porter, Jr. from Penn State. I think they miss their win total by going 8-9.

Best Bets and AFC North Predictions

Best Bets

Cleveland Browns OVER 9.5 wins

Baltimore Ravens UNDER 9.5 wins

Divisional Winner

Cincinnati Bengals winning AFC North: +150

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