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2024 ACC Tournament Predictions with Betting Odds and Picks

by Robert Ferringo - 3/11/2024

ACC Tournament predictions Elliot Cadeau UNC Tar Heels

The ACC may no longer be the dominant conference in college basketball. But that doesn’t mean that they can’t produce one of the most exciting and consequential tournaments of Championship Week.

Storylines abound. North Carolina is making its pitch for a No. 1 seed in next week’s NCAA Tournament. A potential rematch with Duke in the finals after last Saturday’s contentious Tar Heels victory would be sweet. And a bevy of bubble teams – Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Syracuse – will try to shoot their way into The Big Dance.

The ACC Tournament tips off Monday at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. with a championship game scheduled for Saturday night. Here is Doc’s Sports 2024 ACC Tournament preview and predictions, with odds to win the tournament in parentheses:

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The Favorite: North Carolina (+150)

The Tar Heels went 17-3 in ACC play and have clearly been the best team in a down year for the conference. North Carolina has won six straight entering the tournament and they are seeking their first ACC crown since 2016 (and just their second since 2008). Depth is the biggest weakness for this group, which is in the bottom 25 in the country in bench minutes. However, UNC’s starting five might be the best in college basketball, with All-American R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot as the go-to guys, veterans Cormac Ryan and Harrison Ingram doing a bit of everything, and freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau giving the attack some pop.

The Contender: Duke (+160)

It has been another drama-filled season for the bitchy Blue Devils. Duke is 24-7 on the season and the only three teams to have beaten them since Dec. 3 are Pitt, UNC (twice) and Wake Forest. Kyle Filipowski – the tournament MVP last year for the champion Blue Devils – is a dirty player and a pissbaby. But he’s also a pretty damn good player and averages 16.7 points, eight rebounds and nearly six combined assists, steals and blocks per game. Duke is the rare team that is in the Top 50 in both scoring and points allowed and can beat teams inside and out. However, they have only beaten three Top 40 teams this season and only one of those wins came outside of Cameron Indoor.

The Sleeper: Virginia (+2200)

The Cavaliers have had plenty of success in the ACC tournament, making it to the finals last season and winning the championship in 2018. Virginia enters this tournament squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. They only have two wins over tournament-caliber teams (Clemson, Wake Forest) since Thanksgiving, and those two wins came by a combined three points. The Cavs still rely on their trademark Packline Defense. They are No. 3 in the nation in points allowed and No. 12 in field goal defense. The problems, as usual, are on the offensive end, as they are one of the 10 lowest scoring teams in college hoops and lack anyone with high-end offensive potential.

The Spoiler: Clemson (+800)

I have been higher on Clemson than most this season. That’s because I love how the roster is constructed and I see a complete team capable of a big March. And the books obviously agree with me, posting Clemson with the third-best odds to cut down the nets despite their spot at the No. 6 seed. The Tigers have a great nonconference resume and were one of the few teams to knock off North Carolina this year, in Chapel Hill, no less. They enter D.C. off two of three losses and haven’t done much over the past month. However, P.J. Hall is one of the best players in the league and the backcourt of Chase Hunter and Joe Girard is good enough to carry this group.

Bubble Team To Watch: Wake Forest (+900)

This Wake Forest team has dealt with a lot both on and off the court this season. It’s been an emotional year, especially for head coach Steve Forbes. Wake was an NCAA Tournament snub last year so you know that they are focused and motivated to avoid that same fate this season. Wake has some moderately impressive wins on their resume (Duke, Clemson) but likely needs at least two wins to have a chance at avoiding another Selection Sunday disappointment.

Potential Early Round Matchups To Watch:

No. 7 Syracuse vs. No. 10 N.C. State (6:30 p.m., Wednesday, March 13)

The Orange have made a late push onto the NCAA Tournament bubble, winning four of their last five games. Syracuse was always a menace in the Big East Tournament, and the Orange will look to ride its seven super sophomores to an ACC tourney run. N.C. State should easily take care of Louisville in the opener. Then they will pose a dangerous obstacle to the Orange in the second round. Wolfpack guard D.J. Horne is an explosive scorer and D.J. Burns is a handful on the interior. Syracuse struggles to defend the interior and their outside shooting is suspect. This should be Wednesday’s best game.

No. 4 Pittsburgh vs. No. 5 Wake Forest (2:30 p.m., Thursday, March 14)

If Wake Forest wins this game (after beating the Georgia Tech-Notre Dame victor) then a win over Pitt, a fellow bubble team, could punch the ticket for the Demon Deacons. For the Panthers, a team on a 9-2 run and playing its best basketball, they likely would need to win this game and then take down North Carolina in the semifinals. Regardless, these are two talented offensive teams that will be playing for a shot at The Big Dance. The stakes, and the intensity, will be at the max Thursday afternoon.

No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Clemson (9:30 p.m., Thursday, March 14)

This should be one of the better quarterfinal games in any of the major conference tournaments this week. Virginia is playing for its postseason life – both in this and the NCAA tournaments – and Clemson is trying to claim its spot as a true spoiler. This one won’t be pretty to watch (Virginia games never are) but it should come down to the final seconds like their regular season meeting, a 66-65 Cavaliers win.

2024 ACC Conference Tournament Predictions: There is no doubt that North Carolina is the best team in the ACC this season. But three wins in three nights might be a lot to ask for a team that doesn’t have much of a bench. I think the Tar Heels will make the finals – but not after getting pushed hard by either Pitt or Wake – and I expect them to take on either Duke or Clemson in another classic final.

But keep this in mind: Duke and North Carolina haven’t met in an ACC Championship Game since 2011 and have only played for the title twice so far this decade.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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