2007 ACC Conference Preview
by Jordan Adams - 07/23/2007
Long dominated by the likes of Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech, parity seems more likely than ever in the Atlantic Coastal Conference. In 2006 Wake Forest rose from obscurity to become league champs -- the third time in as my years a new champion was crowned.
This fall, a lot looks to change and that will be evident nowhere more than the sidelines. In Coral Gables, defensive coordinator Randy Shannon takes over for the ousted Larry Coker at Miami. Former Hurricanes head coach Butch Davis now runs the show up in Chapel Hill for North Carolina and in somewhat of an odd manner, Tom O'Brian bolted Boston College for N.C. State. Jeff Jagodzinski now steps in for the Eagles.
I find it unlikely that a national champion contender will come out of these two divisions. Every year the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions produce some of the more balanced and physical football, and this fall looks to be more the same. The big three mentioned above surely are looked at as top dogs, however the Demon Deacons' rise to prominence should be viewed as more than just one unconventional season.
Outside of the traditional minnow Duke, each and every program is capable of making some well-deserved noise. Miami and Florida State drastically underachieved last season, but a new horizon means a blank slate to open fresh. Frank Beamer and Virginia Tech always come to play, and once again that Hokie defense and efficient special teams unit will be one to reckon with. Overall the ACC has a lot to prove, as other conferences around the nation have caught up to, if not passed, this league. This fall the order looks to be restored to reenact the pride of ACC football.
Teams on the Rise:
Look no further than Al Groh and his Virginia Cavaliers. They stumbled to a 5-7 mark last season. However, that number could easily flip-flop, or better, with 20 starters back this fall. Leading the offense is the dynamic sophomore Jameel Sewell under center. And with all but one starter returning on defense, the Wahoos will be primed to jump several teams in the standings by early November.
Miami won't be all the way back in 2007, but the weakness of this conference is most certainly the Coastal Division. Georgia Tech is without Calvin Johnson, Virginia is still on the come-up, North Carolina needs multiple years under Butch Davis, and Duke is, well, Duke. That leaves the 'Canes to battle it out with Virginia Tech. And while the Hokies have them matched this time around, Miami can once again get back its pride as a top tier team in the ACC.
Teams on the Decline:
Major questions loom when considering why Tom O'Brian left a more establish program at BC to take this inferior job with the Wolfpack. State lacks playmakers at quarterback and wide receivers, not to mention they return just five starters on defense. O'Brian didn't get used to much losing in Chestnut Hill, but he better make way now that he moved down the coast.
Wake Forest will again be a major player in this year's race, but mark me down for one of the guys that clearly states this team will not get back to 11 wins. Yes, they return a good mix on offense, but that stingy defense that allowed just 15.4 points per game is much different after losing six key starters. The Deacons must also deal with a Florida State team hungry for a big year.
Treading Water (hasn't done much to improve):
Virginia Tech is as stable as it comes in this conference. Frank Beamer's defense will always be an elite unit, while the special teams turns out to be one of the best every season. But again the nagging issue will be quarterback play. Sean Glennon is back, but he never really established himself last year as a starter. Word on the street is that Ike Whitaker could factor more so into the decision this time around, but, regardless of either one, Virginia Tech will be limited with inexperience under center.
The Yellow Jackets lose more in one player than most do with a whole unit. Calvin Johnson is gone, but not to be forgotten is also the loss of veteran, yet shaky quarterback, Reggie Ball. The defense should again be the strong point, as eight starters return under mastermind Jon Tenuta. Tailback Tashard Choice will need to carry a bulk of the load, especially if new starting quarterback Taylor Bennett can't lead. With a 9-5 record last year, Georgia Tech looks like a seven or eight win team right about now.
Money Player (player to bet on):
If there is ever a player more deserved for riding your bankroll on, it's Boston College's Matt Ryan. Not that one should ever risk all on one game or player, but the Eagles' starting quarterback is such a prized leader. He makes smart decisions, he is poised under pressure and he has never lost a bowl game for BC. No doubt he will be the reason for their success this fall, and he'll be fun to watch when on the road against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
Bankroll Buster (player to avoid betting on):
If Matt Ryan is the ACC gold standard for quarterbacks, than a video of Drew Weatherford's 2006 season might be a good viewing pleasure of how not to perform as a leader in clutch situations. Don't get me wrong, Florida State's junior quarterback has more talent than any arm in this conference, he just seems not to put it all together when it counts most. Back again this season with two studs on the ends in De'Cody Fagg and Greg Carr, Weatherford is definitely a wait-and-see type of talent.
Important Betting Trends:
The ACC wasn't exactly a betting playground in 2006. Outside of Wake Forest (8-4) and Virginia Tech (7-4), no one else finished the season better than 6-5 ATS. Despite being outscored by an average of nearly 19 points, Duke's 5-6 mark against the number finished better than Miami's 3-7 misery, as well as what Florida State, Maryland and Virginia could put together against their respective weekly spreads.
Potential Conference Champ:
It's well evident that this league is as good as a toss-up heading into the fall. The reason is certainly lack of quarterback play, despite these respective programs being well set on the defensive side of the ball. As of now it has to be Florida State in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech from the Coastal. Both these teams are far too loaded everywhere else for their inconsistent arms to drag them down that much. Plus, they did exactly that this year, so expect some changes to come this season. The biggest move so far was the Seminoles bringing in Jimbo Fisher from LSU to run the offense. He did wonders with JaMarcus Russell, and that reason leaves me to believe it will be the tribe from Tallahassee that reigns in 2007.
Key Games:
Florida State at Clemson, Sept. 3 - Wow! Does it get any more difficult of a season opener for the Seminoles? While the majority of the Top 25 will be hosting Podunk State and the California penal system, Florida State gets its annual father-son match-up from the go. Watch out for the Tigers' dynamic duo of C.J. Spiller and James Davis. They will most certainly make you miss.
Florida State at Wake Forest, Oct. 11 - These two get the spotlight on a Thursday night, and its Florida State that needs some payback. The loser is shot down and most likely chasing the Atlantic leader from here on out.
Miami at Florida State, Oct. 20 - Hatred would be a good description for how these two rivals view each other. Usually the two battle it out on the field in the season opener, but even in October neither will accept a loss from their counterpart.
Predicted order of finish:
Atlantic Division: Florida State, Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, Maryland, N.C. State
Coastal Division: Virginia Tech, Miami, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke