After a rare week off NASCAR heads down to Talladega Super Speedway, stock car racing's most competitive track, this Sunday at 2 p.m. televised by FOX, for the Aaron's 499 as Jeff Gordon tries to win his third straight at Talladega, having swept both Sprint Cup races last year.

If you are a fan of drafting this is the place for you. Talladega is a 2.66-mile tri-oval course that features both north and south turns banked at 33 degrees while the grandstands tri-oval is banked 16.5 degrees. There is something about Talladega, a restrictor plate track, that screams excitement. Just look at the records held by this track for the fastest 500-mile stock car race (188.354 mph, May 10, 1997, winner: Mark Martin), the most lead changes in a NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series event (75, May 6, 1984) and the most leaders in a NASCAR NEXTEL Cup Series event (26, twice, July 27, 1986 & April 22, 2001).

Who will win the Aaron's 499?

In case you missed it we nailed the winner of the Subway 500 two weeks ago with Jimmie Johnson cashing a 6/1 ticket. If anyone could use a victory right now it is Johnson's teammate, No. 24 Jeff Gordon, who has experienced, by his standards, a rough spring. The good news for Gordon is that Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports have owned Talladega, notching wins 16 of the past 17 races while HMS drivers have won six of the past eight races. But I'm not totally sold that team HMS has overcome all that ills after their win at PIR two weeks ago. They gambled on fuel and won but that might not be the case again this weekend.

If you are looking for another driver who might take the checkered flag do not overlook Joe Gibbs Racing's Smoke in the No. 20 car. Tony Stewart is one of the most successful drivers to never have won at Talladega. His average finish of 12.8 is a bit deceiving, brought higher by three finishes of 28th place or greater due to three crashes. Aside from the crashes Stewart boasts eight top-five finishes and 11 top-10 finishes at Talladega. Stewart came in second place in 2001 and 2005.

That said, while it seems pretty obvious to most fans of NASCAR that Chevrolet will be the car to beat once again, if they lose it could be to Toyota, who has made huge leaps in CoT and could be the team to beat this weekend.

Pick! Tony Stewart (6/1)

Aaron's 499 Solid Gold Picks

Sportsbook.com has listed many matchups on the Aaron's 499 but here are a few picks I like to cash under the lights on Saturday. Over the wall we just missed sweeping the board two weeks ago as Harvick had a comfortable lead over Gordon for the entire race until Harvick was forced to pit with a few laps left and stalled his car twice, which enabled Gordon to finish higher than Harvick. With my first loss in more than four weeks, my NASCAR match-ups record stands at 6-6 as I fall just below the money mark down -1.75 units on the season.

Long Odds Value Pick

In my last column I mentioned that I wouldn't be surprised to see Clint Bowyer win at PIR, and win he almost did. Bowyer has been amazingly consistent and we saw that again as he rallied from the back of the grid to finish the race in second place. The final lap had us almost rooting for Johnson to run out of gas because 16/1 is a much better payday than 6/1. Looking ahead to this week it's hard to overlook Hendrick Motorsports as well as Chevrolet's dominance at Talladega. However, three of HMS' four drivers do not fall into a long odds value play so we are going to default to Casey Mears. While everyone is looking at the No. 88 car to win in Alabama, for this play we like No. 5 Carquest/Kellogs car. Mears has had a modicum of success at Talladega with three top-10 finishes. On super speedway tracks Mears has notched one top-five and five top-10 finishes.

Pick! No. 5, Casey Mears, 30/1

Square Tire Pick

Matt Kenseth (-1.05) vs. Kurt Busch (-1.25)

Meager pickings in the matchups section this week as most favorites are legitimate picks to cash this weekend. I think this is due in part to how unpredictable the Sprint Cup has been this year. I don't like many of the listed dogs but here is a small bark for a few bucks. Both Busch and Kenseth have done well at super speedways and Talladega in general.

Kenseth in the No. 17 car has two wins, eight top-fives and 18 top-10 finishes on super speedways of which he has recorded three top-fives and six top-10 wins. Busch in the No. 2 ride has never won on a super speedway but has recorded 15 top-fives and 21-top-10s of which he has six top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes at Talladega. The drivers have similar records but given the myriad of problems with the Dodge cars in recent races I think you have to give the edge to Kenseth and his Ford car to win this match-up.

Pick! No. 17, Kenseth (-1.05)

*Aaron's 499 Odds
Sunday, Apr 27th (2.00pm EST)
Talladega Super Speedway, AL

A.J. Allmendinger 150/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 50/1
Brian Vickers 80/1
Carl Edwards 16/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 22/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/2
Dario Franchitti 200/1
Dave Blaney 150/1
David Gilliland 50/1
David Ragan 50/1
David Reutimann 100/1
Denny Hamlin 11/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 35/1
J.J. Yeley 100/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jeff Gordon 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joe Nemechek 200/1
John Andretti 200/1
Jon Wood 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 50/1
Kasey Kahne 28/1
Ken Schrader 150/1
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Kurt Busch 16/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Kyle Petty 200/1
Martin Truex Jr. 28/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael McDowell 200/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 150/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 150/1
Robby Gordon 125/1
Ryan Newman 22/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Sterling Marlin 150/1
Tony Stewart 6/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.