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2025 AAC Tournament Predictions and Betting Odds

by Robert Ferringo - 3/10/2025

AAC Tournament predictions Atin Wright North Texas Mean Green

I’ll forgive you if you don’t pay attention to American Athletic Conference basketball tournament.

Heck, I bet half the people involved in AAC hoops don’t even care that much about AAC hoops. Such is life as a mid-major conference that has seen teams like Connecticut, Louisville, Cincinnati, SMU and Houston come and go through its 12-year history.

However, a lot of eyes should be on the AAC Tournament this week. Because if this league has proven anything, it is that it loves to steal bids to the NCAA Tournament.

The AAC has sent at least two teams to The Big Dance every year of its existence. Last year, sharp-shooting UAB cut down the nets and punched its ticket to the dance. And with Memphis currently the only AAC squad being considered for an at-large bid, anyone that wants a spot in the NCAA field will need to win out in Texas.

The AAC Tournament will take place from Wednesday, March 12 to Sunday, March 16 at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas. Here is Doc’s Sports 2025 American Athletic Conference Tournament preview and predictions:

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

The Favorite: Memphis (-105)

I don’t feel like Penny Hardaway has suddenly, in his seventh season, become a better in-game coach after years of underachieving. Instead, I think Memphis has had a breakthrough for Hardaway because, instead of investing his team’s fortunes in freshmen phenoms and young, enigmatic talent, Memphis finally “got old” and went with a senior-laden roster. Seven of Memphis’ top eight players are seniors, and this is one of the 10 most experienced groups in college basketball. The one non-senior is the best of the bunch, though, with third-year sophomore P.J. Haggerty (21.2 points per game), the nation’s sixth leading scorer. Memphis is 17-2 since Christmas and has the easiest path to the finals.

The Contender: North Texas (+190)

The Mean Green have won 16 of their last 20 games. They’ve scored more than 75 points in just three of those games. North Texas is a grinding, physical team that turns games into rock fights. Ross Hodge’s team is No. 3 in the country in scoring defense, allowing just 59.3 points per game, and they beat teams up on the boards and at the free throw line. Guard Atin Wright is their best offensive player, scoring 20 or more in six of UNT’s last 16 games and blowing up for 42 points in a recent win over Charlotte. This team is all about slow pace, execution, and physical defense.

The Dark Horse: UAB (+750)

The Blazers are pretty much the exact opposite of North Texas. UAB plays at a fast pace, doesn’t care about defense at all, and tries to outscore opponents with the nation’s No. 16 scoring attack (83.0 PPG). The Blazers have one of the most underrated players in the country, Yaxel Lendeborg, and everything starts and ends with him. Lendeborg averages 17.1 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.8 blocks per game while shooting 55.1 percent from the field. He’s awesome. The Blazers were able to shoot their way to a tournament title last season and four starters are back from that group. This is a boom or bust kind of team.

The Spoiler: Wichita State (+3000)

It has been a roller coaster season for the Shockers. A month ago, I thought head coach Paul Mills was a dead man walking and set to lose his job. Then he coaxed a six-game winning streak out of the Shockers that included an emotional OT win over Memphis. Wichita State couldn’t sustain the momentum, though, losing three of its last four games, including an embarrassing home loss to a bad Tulsa team. Wichita State was actually better without Georgia transfer guard Justin Hill, going 7-0 this year in games he didn’t play and 11-13 when he did. Like Memphis, this is a veteran group. They already beat Memphis once and could blow up this bracket with an upset in the quarterfinals. If Mills doesn’t win that game, don’t be shocked to see him get a pink slip next week.

Early Round Matchup To Watch:

No. 4 Tulane vs. No. 5 Florida Atlantic (2 p.m., Friday, March 14)

Florida Atlantic should be able to breeze past either Rice or Charlotte to set up this quarterfinal game with Tulane. And don’t be surprised if the Owls, despite being the lower seed, end up being favored in this matchup. Ron Hunter coaxed a fourth-place finish out of one of the youngest rosters in the AAC, going 7-3 in their last 10 games. Tulane also blasted FAU in the first meeting, winning 80-65, and I’m sure the Owls will have revenge on their minds. Florida Atlantic is nowhere close to the team we’ve seen the last two seasons. Winning a few games in the conference tournament and setting up a date with Memphis would make up for some of that, though.

2025 American Athletic Conference Tournament Predictions: Much like the ACC, I just think that the top team in the American is head and shoulders better than everyone else in the league. Sure, like the ACC, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds are more than capable of knocking off the big dog. But those teams will cancel each other out in the semifinals, and I’m not sure how much the winner will have left in the tank. North Texas is all defense. UAB is all offense. I think it will take a more complete effort to take out this Memphis team. So, if the Tigers can avoid getting upset in their first tournament game (likely against Wichita State), I think they will coast to a title.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 14 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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